und hier die Blindgänger von der engl. FT - Titelstory der Druckausgabe!

verfasst von kingsolomon, 02.08.2003, 19:18

-->seit Tony B. dort regiert lassen die Tommies scheint's auf allen Ebenen gewaltig nach. Wär die Schlagzeile in der FTD erschienen, hätte ich gesagt 'Sei's drum,
die konnten's eh nie besser'.

im Vgl. hierzu eine e-mail eines Bond eines Bond-Trader-Veteranen, zitiert von
Fleckenstein in seinem aktuellen 'Chronicle' ( es geht um die Frage, wo bzw. wann die Leichen des Bondmassakers angeschwemmt werden )

"Dead bodies are hiding behind the Mark to Market. The curve has killed all the wise guys as the two- to 10-year spread went out 70 in the last few weeks. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are staggering nightmares, and I think the Fed is buying their paper on the open market. You see what Lehman Brothers did, bought Neuberger to"lower profile in bonds" where they can't make any money. Look at Merrill's earnings 57% from proprietary trading, meaning carry trade! Look at the footings of LEH, Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan Chase. They are staggering. They all are on one side of the trade. Institutions can't get out now because Wall Street is not bidding, and what is coming down the road is the most violent bond market you will ever see.[p]

I got out because they did not need smart salesmen. The SEC has changed the rules. There is a new trading system called Market Access. Gives bond prices transparency, and every idea I gave out had to be put in competition. It is over for bonds. Bill Gross has nowhere to sell his bonds because Wall Street is now going to be his enemy. He has to put his stuff on Market Access, and Wall Street is going to front-run it all. I will add more later, but rates are going up a ton. I see 6% 10-year notes by December. There is no money for the Treasury. They have worn out the welcome this time. But dead bodies? Not for a while. The Fed and Treasury will cover it up as long as possible. LTCM is going to look like a hiccup.[p]

The key is liquidity. There is none, which is why I am shocked the dopes at Treasury did not offer $30 billion 30-year bonds. They have no clue. Bond management is now a race among the mediocre. Indexing and consultants have forced even the smart guys to capitulate and buy stuff that makes them gag. It is going to evolve into a lemming mentality. And the moves are going to be enormous. Look, the long bond contract fell what, 18 points in a month? That is real money. But you still have an economy that is not borrowing, and you can't make people borrow. Going to get wild. If we don't have a depression caused by enormous debt defaults, the other side is gold at $3,000 an ounce."
<ul> ~ Bond yields rise as recovery hopes strengthen</ul>

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gesamter Thread:

• Hier ein m.A. nach guter Wochenbericht zu den Bondmärkten - nasdaq10000, 02.08.2003, 17:06
  • und hier die Blindgänger von der engl. FT - Titelstory der Druckausgabe! - kingsolomon, 02.08.2003, 19:18
    • Re: 'If we don´t have a depression caused by enormous debt defaults...' - - Elli -, 02.08.2003, 19:26
      • sorry, schlecht formatiert - kingsolomon, 02.08.2003, 19:41
    • Re: In diesem FT-Passus liegt der wahre Charme: - dottore, 03.08.2003, 13:52