Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Gewinne der US-Unternehmen"im freien Fall", - Erwin, 27.10.2000, 21:15
- Re: Gewinne der US-Unternehmen"im freien Fall", - Hideyoshi, 27.10.2000, 21:17
Gewinne der US-Unternehmen"im freien Fall",
und im Moment feiern wir in New York das unerwartet
schwache Wirtschaftswachstum im 3. Quartal von 2,7%.
Auch wenn einige hier gern den Vergleich zum letzten
Jahr ziehen, als nach der Oktober-Schwäche die Rallye
kam - dieses Mal könnte es ein kleines Bißchen anders
laufen, weil die wirtschaftliche Situation ´ne andere
ist. Siehe dazu den nachfolgenden Artikel.
U.S. Companies' Profit Growth Smallest in More Than a Year
By Peter Robison
New York, Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. companies boosted third- quarter profits at the slowest rate in more than a year as higher oil prices raised costs and a weaker euro cut the value of overseas earnings. The fallout is only likely to get worse.
``Free fall is the way we've described it,'' said Chuck Hill, director of research at First Call/Thomson Financial, which collects analysts' forecasts. While profits rose 20 percent in the third quarter, the estimate for fourth-quarter earnings growth has dropped unusually quickly to 12.9 percent from 15.6 percent on Oct. 1, Hill said.
A string of missed sales forecasts from prominent companies such as International Business Machines Corp., AT&T Corp. and Intel Corp. has kept optimism in check even as many companies reported third-quarter earnings gains. The increase for Standard & Poor's 500 Index companies was the smallest since a 14.5 percent gain in the second quarter of 1999.
``People are really getting more anxious,'' said Kevin Bannon, who oversees $65 billion as chief investment officer of Bank of New York Co.'s fund-management arm. ``There was some unhappiness with the source of the earnings growth -- it wasn't as revenue-driven as people might have hoped, and you had very cautionary management comments.''
Oil companies led by Exxon Mobil Corp., makers of computer equipment such as Sun Microsystems Inc. and financial companies including Citigroup Inc. all had large gains. Many of the largest technology companies lowered their forecasts because of weaker- than-expected sales, triggering worries about a slowdown in the nine-year U.S. economic expansion.
Fewer Surprises
The technology companies ``are just one hell of a wildcard right now,'' First Call's Hill said.
IBM, the world's biggest computer company, said software sales fell an unexpected 3 percent in the third quarter. Sales at Intel, the biggest computer-chip maker, rose 5 percent to $8.73 billion from $8.3 billion in the second quarter, half the rate forecast by some analysts.
Nortel Networks Corp., AT&T and WorldCom Inc. also reported sales shortfalls. Others, including Lucent Technologies Inc. and Motorola Inc., warned that profits would miss forecasts during the next year.
``There are a lot of signs pointing to slower growth in the technology sector, from PCs to fiber optics to the Internet,'' said Doug Johanson, who helps manage the $11.4 million IMS Capital Value Fund in Portland, Oregon.
Fewer companies are exceeding analysts' earnings estimates, even though executives typically guide them to lower figures that are easier to beat. With third-quarter reports in from 401 companies in the S&P 500 Index, 60.3 percent have beat estimates, down from 63.7 percent in the second quarter, according to Bloomberg analytics.
Euro Weakness
Oil prices have tripled in 22 months, increasing costs at companies such as Delta Air Lines Inc., whose third-quarter profit fell 3.2 percent.
A 17 percent drop in the euro this year is eroding profits at Procter & Gamble Co. and others that get significant sales in Europe. Earnings at Procter & Gamble, the biggest household-goods maker, are expected to be down slightly in the quarter.
Six increases in U.S. interest rates since June 1999 have also slowed growth for businesses like Eastman Kodak Co., the world's largest photography company. It said fourth-quarter profit will be below forecasts because retailers aren't stocking up on film and sales are slowing.
``My view is that there's a lot more potential for growth over the longer haul abroad than there is in the U.S.,'' said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Bank One Corp. in Chicago.
Financials, Oil
Many companies still posted impressive gains.
Profit from operations at Exxon Mobil, the No. 1 oil company, almost doubled to $4.29 billion, the highest quarterly earnings ever reported by a U.S. company. Profit at Chevron Corp. and Texaco Inc. also surged to records.
Higher fees for underwriting securities and advising on mergers drove earnings at the top U.S. financial-services companies. The largest, Citigroup, saw profit rise 27 percent. Merrill Lynch & Co. said earnings climbed 52 percent on double- digit gains in commissions and asset-management fees.
Even if many technology companies fell short of analysts' high expectations, their earnings grew at a torrid pace.
Intel's earnings rose 72 percent, Sun's jumped 88 percent and IBM's rose 23 percent. Consumers and companies kept buying more computers, cellular phones, personal electronics and equipment that powers the Internet.
The question among many analysts is how long the gains can continue in light of rising energy costs, interest rates and the potential for higher inflation.
The most optimistic consider the sales shortfalls temporary. IBM said it missed forecasts simply because its salesforce didn't close some contracts before the quarter ended. Nortel, the No. 1 maker of fiber-optic equipment, blamed a shortage of workers for sales that rose 42 percent to $7.31 billion, $300 million below some estimates.
Mixed Outlook
``We're still very bullish,'' said Bannon, the BNY investment officer. ``Technology, telecommunications and biotech are three areas that will have really great top-line growth over the next three years.''
Many shareholders are more nervous.
Nortel's shares plunged 29 percent after its third-quarter report, while Intel's dropped a record 22 percent the day it warned of slowing sales growth. The technology-laden Nasdaq Composite Index has declined 23 percent since mid-July, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index is down almost 10 percent.
Earnings increases could slow to the low single digits in coming quarters or even turn negative if there is a ``hard landing'' of the economy, said Hill, the First Call research director.
``I don't think anybody expects us to bottom out before sometime in early 2001,'' he said.
The following chart shows the quarterly percentage rise in per-share profits among companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
Quarter Percentage
1Q '99 11.2% 2Q 14.5 3Q 23.0 4Q 22.3 1Q '00 23.9 2Q 20.8 3Q 20.1*
* With 80.2% of companies reporting
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