Also sprach Alan Greenspan

verfasst von JüKü, 13.05.2000, 01:18

>Wenn überhaupt kann nur gelten: ´history doesn´t repeat itself`.

<font color="#0000FF" size="4">[b]"Doubtless, valuations are shaped in part, perhaps in large part, by the economic process itself. But history suggests that they also reflect waves of optimism and pessimism that can be touched off by seemingly small exogenous events.
...
It has become evident time and again that when events are unexpected, more complex, and move more rapidly than is the norm, human beings become less able to cope. The failure to be able to comprehend external events almost invariably induces fear and, hence, disengagement from an activity, whether it be entering a dark room or taking positions in markets. And attempts to disengage from markets that are net long--the most general case--means bids are hit and prices fall.
....
History tells us that sharp reversals in confidence happen abruptly, most often with little advance notice. These reversals can be self-reinforcing processes that can compress sizable adjustments into a very short time period. Panic market reactions are characterized by dramatic shifts in behavior to minimize short-term losses. Claims on far-distant future values are discounted to insignificance. What is so intriguing is that this type of behavior has characterized human interaction with little appreciable difference over the generations. Whether Dutch tulip bulbs or Russian equities, the market price
patterns remain much the same."

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gesamter Thread:

• Vergleich 1929-2000, wen es interessiert: - pollux, 13.05.2000, 00:20
  • Re: Vergleich 1929-2000, wen es interessiert: - Das Orakel, 13.05.2000, 01:02
    • Also sprach Alan Greenspan - JüKü, 13.05.2000, 01:18
      • Re: Also sprach Alan Greenspan - Das Orakel, 13.05.2000, 02:52