Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Kauf-Kriterien d. Bullen: low quality und möglichst ein fehlendes P/E - kingsolomon, 24.08.2003, 22:24
- seit wann ist Bernstein so bearish? - nasdaq10000, 24.08.2003, 23:48
Kauf-Kriterien d. Bullen: low quality und möglichst ein fehlendes P/E
-->diesmal funktionierts; nach 3 Jahren Rouge muss jetzt einfach Noir kommen, gelle!
Risky bets being made by investors causing concer
Associated Press
Published August 24, 2003
NEW YORK -- So much for the stock market bust scaring off big risk-taking on Wall Street. Just look at the kind of bets being placed in the market these days.
Investors are always willing to gamble a bit when they think new bull markets are beginning. They hope to get in early so they can benefit as the market rebounds.
But this go-around the market appears to be unusually speculative, with investors shunning more conservative buys in favor of lower-quality and overvalued stocks.
Technology stocks are strong, while shares of mining, food and pharmaceutical companies are not seeing the same kind of gains.
That worries Merrill Lynch chief U.S. strategist Richard Bernstein, who details in a recent report why that kind of buying could hurt investors and the economy, too.
"Capital continues to be misallocated, and the economy is continuing to be damaged as a result," Bernstein said.
After three years of crippling declines, the market turned its course in mid-March. While gains have somewhat slowed this summer, the market has still climbed more than 20 percent in the last five months.
Much of this rally has been built on expectations that the economy will rebound, thanks largely to Federal Reserve efforts that include keeping short-term interest rates at 45-year lows. As a result, investors are ramping up their buying, fearful they will miss some price appreciation.
The troubling part to market watchers is what is being bought.
Coming out of previous recessions, investors have been more apt to avoid risk. They have typically moved money away from the industries and sectors where they got burned and instead moved money into those areas where investment returns were stronger.
That is not happening in this market. Investors are pouring money right back into the same sectors--like technology and semiconductors--that led the previous bull market.
They are also buying shares that are trading at a premium to the overall market.
Bernstein looked at the 50 most actively traded stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index, and computed their relative price-to-earnings ratio. He determined that by taking the forecast P/E of those stocks--the price of their shares divided by their expected earnings--and dividing that by the P/E of the market.
What he found is that the most active stocks, which historically have sold at discounts to the market when bull markets began, are now trading at about a 15 percent premium.
Investors also seem more interested in lower-quality stocks, as determined by the stability and the growth in earnings and dividends over a 10-year period.
Bernstein's research shows that the P/Es of those shares are expanding at a faster pace than those of higher quality. But he sees little to justify that appreciation, given that the lower-quality companies are not seeing comparable increases in their earnings estimates.
While this risky stock-picking could produce significant payoffs, it also could wreak havoc on portfolios if the big gains do not happen.
Then there is the impact on the economy.
Just look at what happened during the late 1990s technology boom, when too much money was shifted away from productive purposes and funneled into speculative ventures, many of which did not amount to much. The economy is still struggling to recover from the ensuing downturn.
That's not to say that investors should not take any risks. That's part of holding a balanced portfolio. The danger comes when risk rules the marke
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