Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Aussie Gold Hedging Rises - Ecki1, 27.08.2003, 15:03
Aussie Gold Hedging Rises
-->>Aussie gold hedging rises
By: Peter Gonnella
Posted: 2003/08/27 Wed 17:55 ZE8 | © Mineweb 1997-2003
PERTH - Against the run of play, gold hedging by Aussie gold producers has increased in recent months.
During the June quarter, Aussie-based gold miners lifted their hedging, net of delivery, by 1.05 million ounces or 7.7 percent to 14.65Moz or 456 tonnes by the end of the period. It was only the second quarter since the December 1999 quarter - when Aussie hedging peaked at 45.2Moz - that there hadn’t been a reduction. Aussie gold hedging now represents about 20 percent of the global hedge book total, which fell by a record 5Moz in the June quarter to 73.2Moz (2,278t).
The huge dehedging campaign that has swept the global gold industry over the past couple of years was temporarily interrupted in this country mainly as a result of Australia’s largest locally-based gold company, Newcrest Mining [ASX:NCM], taking out 2.85Moz in fresh hedging (mostly in US dollar forwards) to provide required protection for its Telfer gold/copper project’s debt funding.
JP Morgan analyst Geoff Breen didn’t believe the Aussie hedging anomaly in the past quarter versus the global trend necessarily points to an emergent shift away from dehedging by Aussie producers, despite the Aussie dollar spot gold price continuing to struggle. However, analysts don’t foresee the unprecedented rate of global dehedging over the past 12 months being maintained, and therefore dehedging is not expected to be as supportive of the (US dollar spot) gold price going forward. “But numbers to date show that it is not upon us yet,” Sydney-based Breen said. “There seems little doubt that producers are likely to let the gold price rallies run as opposed to hitting the hedging market (as) in past years.”
From the global perspective, key factors driving dehedging such as low interest rates, the robust US dollar spot gold price and anti-hedging and positive gold sector sentiment still prevail, for now. But, as analysts point out, takeovers of hedgers by non-hedgers, with an unwinding of inherited hedge positions being the general flow-on effect, are decelerating and a few companies are now approaching their long-term hedging targets. “Further, future hedging commitment levels that can be delivered into are less than those seen in recent quarters,” noted Macquarie Bank analyst, Kamal Naqvi. And new projects and expansions are likely to trigger renewed hedging activity. “Hence, the pace of dehedging will slacken and this should be evident possibly even from the first quarter of 2004,” London-based Naqvi added. “However, it is clear that any dehedging slowdown will occur much later and probably less markedly than many had thought at the start of 2003.”
Although a stronger Aussie dollar versus the greenback and weaker Aussie dollar gold price helped improve the combined mark-to-market value of the Aussie hedge books to negative A$242 million, up from minus A$1.02 billion at 31 March 2003, the average realiseable price dropped to A$588 per ounce (from A$655/oz based on the same quarter-on-quarter comparison) thanks to Newcrest’s expanded US$ gold book, converted to a lower A$ gold price, and the higher average A$/US$ exchange rate, which climbed more than US$0.05. The latest average realiseable price of all Aussie hedge books is not far off the low of A$560/oz four years ago when there was more than triple the current volume of Aussie hedging.
Interestingly, it was major diversified resources group WMC Resources [ASX:WMR] who waved the gold dehedging flag for Australia in the June quarter, cutting its gold book - a remnant of its gold division divestment - by 66 percent down to only 200,000oz. While it was traditional hedger Sons of Gwalia [ASX:SGW] who made a big splash in the 2002/03 financial year, stripping 1.7Moz or 36 percent from its previously stricken hedging position, which nevertheless still accounts for 80 percent of its gold reserves (if uncommitted put options are included) against a national hedge cover average of 30 percent of Australian gold reserves. Out of the pure Aussie-based golds, Lihir Gold [ASX:LHG] has the lowest hedging cover, at 12 percent of reserves.
<ul> ~ da nocheluege</ul>
Thread gesperrtgesamter Thread:
