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Mix-Ansicht- Wo finde ich den Link zu den Analysten- Schwestern? (owT) Danke - topas89, 04.09.2003, 01:33
- http://www.adenforecast.com/ - Luigi, 04.09.2003, 01:47
- und dies kam gerade herĂ¼ber aus Costa-Rica............................... - Emerald, 04.09.2003, 07:04
und dies kam gerade herĂ¼ber aus Costa-Rica...............................
-->the weekly Aden-Report of September 3, 2003.
Gold is strong as it closed at another seven month high this week, especially in view of a strong dollar. The C rise is underway with gold staying above $362. Once it closes above $380, the February high, a full fledged C rise will be underway. Gold shares have been leading gold and they will remain super strong with the indices above 180 for HUI and 87 for XAU. Gold shares, however, are overbought while gold isn't. This means we could see gold catch up to the gold share rise. That is, gold could rise further while gold shares settle down. Keep in mind, gold shares will remain strong in the rise they've had since March even if they decline to 165 for HUI and 83 for XAU. Silver is holding firm above $4.90; a close above $5.20 would be a breakout and very bullish. Platinum closed at yet another 23 year high yesterday; it's very strong above $695. Copper also closed at another 2½ year high today. It's strong above $.79. Oil fell sharply yesterday but if it stays above $28, it's still bullish. Keep your positions. If HUI and XAU close below 180 and 87, respectively, you may want to take some gold share profits.
The stock market surged impressively this week with nearly all of the stock indices hitting new highs for the year. Most impressive, the Dow Industrials rose above the strong 9504 resistance at the 50% mark, indicating the Dow could eventually test its 2000 highs. But since the market is also overbought, it's poised for at least a downward correction and we may not see much follow through on the upside for now. If the Dow and S&P500 now stay above 9504 and 1000, respectively, and the Transportations rise and stay above 2800, and/or the markets hold firm during the upcoming downward correction, we'll then move into some of the stronger markets. But first, let's wait to see how the corrections unfold. If you're trading, keep 4% trailing stops on your positions and sell if they're broken.
The international stock markets are strong, but overbought too. If you're trading, sell if your 4% trailing stop is broken.
The U.S. dollar's almost three month rise is starting to resist. If the December dollar index stays below 99.50 and closes below 98, the rise will be over. On the upside, a clear close above 99.50 means it could rise to possibly 102, but the major trend would still be down. The downward correction is still ongoing in the currencies, but the end appears to be upcoming. The Canadian dollar has held up best; it's firm above.7100 and weakness will be over above.7300. Keep an eye on the following numbers because if the currencies rise and stay above them, the correction will be over: euro 1.10, Swiss franc.7180, Australian dollar.6490 and New Zealand dollar.5790. Keep your positions and buy new ones gradually over the month. If you have FAX, FCO and GIM, wait to sell on strength.
U.S. bond prices continue to form a short-term bottom, in spite of yesterday's fall. The 10 year yield closed at another high but the 30 year yield didn't, and bonds are still extremely oversold. If the yields close below 5.21% on the 30 year and 4.40% on the 10 year, a rise in bond prices will begin. If you're still holding bonds or TLT, wait to sell on strength.
The September issue will be e-mailed tomorrow and mailed on the weekend. Please note we will not have an update next week September 10 as we'll be at the New York conference. We hope to see you there. Our next update will be on September 17.
Warm wishes, Pamela and Mary Anne Aden
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