Re: Deficits - just keep cool & wait (hier: IWF Warnung, special for UK)

verfasst von dottore, 19.09.2003, 13:45

-->Stark warning to overspending West

By Edmund Conway (Filed: 19/09/2003)

The International Monetary Fund gave a warning yesterday
about spiralling budget deficits in the world's major
economies, as official figures showed UK government
borrowing ballooned for the fifth successive month.

In its six-monthly
World Economic
Outlook, the IMF
issued a stiff warning
to America, where the
deficit is growing
massively owing to a
combination of
government spending,
the prolonged
occupation of Iraq and
tax cuts.

It said the"twin
deficits" in its budget
and current account
could cost America its
position as the engine
of global growth.

"While such risks are clearly reduced by strong productivity
growth, looking forward it seems unlikely that the US can or
should provide the degree of support to the global
economy over the medium term that it has in the past,"
the IMF said.

It expressed similar concern for Europe's main economies,
where high public spending could"put unbearable strains
on public finances and debt burdens". Countries where the
budget deficit was already high would have either to cut
spending or raise taxes to keep afloat.

Turning to Britain, the IMF said house price inflation could
face an"unwinding" after such a strong year in 2002,
although it remained high in recent months.

It cut its forecast for the economy's growth from 2pc to
1.7pc this year and from 2.5pc to 2.4pc next year. Both
forecasts are below Gordon Brown's forecasts of 2-2.5pc
and 3-3.5pc successively.

Yesterday the Office for National Statistics said public
spending in August rose £3 billion above July's figure, with
net borrowing totalling £4.8 billion.

This takes total borrowing since March to £16.8 billion,
almost double last year's level. Mr Brown's budget forecast
of a £27 billion deficit may be exceeded by £10 billion or
more, say economists.

"These figures are nasty, and we have upped our forecasts
for the year's borrowing 9pc to £37 billion," said Jonathan
Loynes, chief UK economist at Capital Economics."This
means the public deficit will account for around 3.4pc of
gross domestic product, above the EU-defined limit.

"Given that Britain looks very unlikely to hit the
Chancellor's growth targets - as the IMF acknowledged by
slashing forecasts - this makes it increasingly probable that
he will have to put up taxes in the next few years."

The IMF's concern about the housing market in Britain was
allayed for the moment by mortgage figures out yesterday
from the Council for Mortgage Lenders.

It saw lending for house purchases total £11.5 billion in
August - the highest number since its records began,
accounting for 48pc of total lending. The British Bankers'
Association's figures saw mortgage lending up 4pc to £5.5
billion.

At the same time, retail sales figures showed a rise of
0.2pc as Britain's consumers continued to spend. The result
means that sales in the past three months rose 1.8pc, the
strongest growth in more than a year. Economists said the
hot summer had continued to help consumers keep the
economy afloat.


Na hoffentlich wird's nicht ein kalter Winter...

Gruß!

Thread gesperrt

 

gesamter Thread:

• Was wird den Crash auslösen? - Balduin, 19.09.2003, 09:42
  • Re: Was wird den Crash auslösen? - MagicT, 19.09.2003, 10:34
    • Re: Was wird den Crash auslösen? - Balduin, 19.09.2003, 11:42
  • Wie wäre es mit Mahendra und seiner Ankündigung eines Attentatankündigung? - spieler, 19.09.2003, 10:48
    • In die Richtung denke ich auch...auch wenn - Balduin, 19.09.2003, 11:39
  • Re: Was für ein Crash? Ich seh momentan nix derartiges. (owT) - Ecki1, 19.09.2003, 11:14
    • Re: Wenn der Crash schon als so unvermeidlich angesehen wird, dass man nur... - JLL, 19.09.2003, 11:34
      • Die Masse glaubt nicht an einen Crash... - Balduin, 19.09.2003, 11:45
        • Re: Ich weiß zwar nicht, was die Masse glaubt,... - JLL, 19.09.2003, 12:08
        • Re: Crash ist ein Wieselwort! Weder Aufwärts- noch Abwärtstrends sind linear (owT) - Ecki1, 19.09.2003, 12:10
  • ... dare to dream that the good times are here again (Asien, eco) (mL) - zani, 19.09.2003, 11:52
  • Re: Deficits - just keep cool & wait (hier: IWF Warnung, special for UK) - dottore, 19.09.2003, 13:45