Gold - This time it's different

verfasst von Aristoteles, 28.09.2003, 23:27

-->ein interessantes Argument von Alf Fields. Bisher war es eine fast
sichere Wette, sich bei Extrem-Positionen der Commercials auf deren
Seite zu schlagen.

"... Returning to the consideration of the COT position, it is useful to remember that the bears putting out the short positions are as human as we are and subject to the same frailties. It is thus likely that after 20 years of being right and reaping a fortune out of being short the gold bear market, that these people have possibly become over-confident and maybe a touch arrogant. It is unlikely that they will see the problems developing for their short positions that are now arraigned against the primary trend of the market until it is too late."

"The bears will do what they have done in the past, put out even more shorts. This is the Nick Leeson syndrome, the technique that brought Baring Brothers bank to its knees a few years ago. Fighting the primary trend of a market is the sure fire road to bankruptcy - and a COT death."
Alf Field, 28 September 2003

Ich komme zu dem Schluß,
daß die Lage instabil ist, ein kleiner Auslöser kann den POG zur einen oder
anderen Seite ausbrechen lassen, weder für die Commercials noch die Large Specs
vorhersehbar. 10% POG-Veränderung verursachen laut Field 268 Mio USD
margin calls.

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gesamter Thread:

• Gold - This time it's different - Aristoteles, 28.09.2003, 23:27