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Mix-Ansicht- Das US-Wirtschaftswunder geht in e. neue Ära - als nächstes die Jobblase - kingsolomon, 03.10.2003, 14:50
- Re: kleine Analyse der aktuellen Arbeitslosenstatistik - kingsolomon, 03.10.2003, 18:33
Re: kleine Analyse der aktuellen Arbeitslosenstatistik
-->geklaut vom 'Master of Proctology' ;-)
From Table A-1, Employment Situation of the Population by Sex and Age
The comparison is between August 2003 and September 2003
The non-adjusted numbers show that the number of employed declined from 138,137,000 to 137,731,000. This is a net loss of 406,000 jobs non seasonally adjusted.
Interestingly enough, the number of unemployed also declined from 8,830,000 to 8,436,000. This is a net loss of 394,000 of the unemployed. Good news huh? A drop in unemployment to 5.8%! (Don't eat the soylent green).
The ratio of the employed to the total population of the US has dropped again, from 62.4 to 62.1 (63 in Sept 2002).
The bottom line is that as workers benefits run out, the Bush administration stops counting them.
But take a look over at the 'seasonally adjusted' number which is where the number ought to have come from, right?
The number of employed DROPPED from 137,625,000 to137,573,000 for a net loss of 52,000 jobs seasonally adjusted by their own numbers.
So how do they come up with an increase???
Let's take a look at their actual release.
http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
In Table A. under Civilian Labor Force, Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, we do indeed see a running decline from August through September of 137,625 to 137,573 for a net loss of 52 (in thousands).
The 'good news' of today comes in the next area of the table under"Establishment" with the heading"Non Farm Employment."
Here we show the 'good news' gain from the employed from 129,805 to 129,862 for a net gain of 57 (in thousands). All the numbers are marked with a (p) meaning preliminary as in subject to revision. Nine out of ten americans will notice, by the way, that the total number of nonfarm employed was 129,862, which is considerably less than the total of 137,573,000, which means that we now have 7,711,000 farmers in this country. Or just more unaccounted for unemployed.
If you look at the breakdown, you will see that all the gain offsetting losses came from"Service Providing" with a gain of 74,000. Indeed the text of the release says
"Professional and business services added 66,000 jobs in September; half of the gain occurred in temporary help services. Since April, temporary help has added 147,000 jobs. Architectural and engineering services employment increased by 9,000 in September."
The bottom line is that a preliminary estimate, which assumes we are becoming consultants or temps when we lose work, was the headline number, and the 'real number' was a loss somewhere between 406,000 and 52,000 depending on how much of a seasonal adjustment you allow. Since a large number of college age kids are returning to school, I might accept the loss of 52,000 jobs number as a reasonable estimate for now.
However, the most realistic approach is to look at the trends, and ignore these shockingly bad estimates from Elaine Cho and her Administration cronies as being Weapons of Mass Deception from an Administration increasingly at a loss to explain our economy in their terms that improve their chances of being re-elected.
I'd mark this number up to the $15 billion in PC sales that the Administration marked up to $133 billion because they were 'faster.'
Maybe we can give David Kay a couple hundred million to go look for those missing workers.
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