Das Marktgeschen am Tag der Einheit - so ehrlich wie die deutsche Einheit

verfasst von RK, 04.10.2003, 17:24

-->Am 3. Oktober 2003 fand an den Weltfinanzmärkten eine Orgie der Manipulation statt wie sie bislang nur selten zu bestaunen war.
Nun wird ALLES gut! Nina Ruge lässt auch schon grüßen! Die Münchner Boulevard-Blätter wissen´s auch schon aufgrund der Wiesn abzulesen! Aufwärts!
Vorgeblicher Auslöser waren Phantasie-Arbeitsmarktzahlen aus den USA, die niemand von Verstand auch nur zur Hälfte für bare Münze nehmen kann.
Dies war dann der vermeintliche Anlass, um herkömmliche Aktien, z.B. im DAX, schwindelerregend nach oben zu treiben, den Euro nach unten zu prügeln, Staatsanleihen massiv zu verramschen, und ganz besonders Gold, Silber und entsprechende Minen zu drücken. Gold"zufälligerweise" aber just erst nach dem nachmittäglichen Londoner Preis-Fixing, das für den physischen Handel relevant ist, wo man begierig niedrigere Preise sofort für entsprechend umfangreichere Käufe genutzt hätte. Danach wird dann aber in New York nur noch um und mit"Papier" manipuliert, und da können mafiöse Großbanken im Dienste und mit Rückendeckung von Zentralbanken unbegrenzt verkaufen. Das läuft jetzt bald zehn Jahre so. Papier ist bekanntlich geduldig. Und ob man jetzt an einem Tag noch ein paar dutzend oder hundert Tonnen Edelmetalle zu den Tausenden"leer verkauft", also in bloßer Papierform, wo ohnehin jeder weiß oder zumindest wissen kann, dass das niemals je eingelöst werden kann, weil es schlicht im Besitz der Verkäufer nicht vorhanden ist und auch ohne globale Diktatur nie sein wird, who cares? Wo es doch ums Wohlergehen (den puren Machterhalt) führender westlicher Machtcliquen geht, deren Felle zunehmend schneller davon schwimmen, da ist man alles andere als zimperlich. (Wenn´s noch düsterer wird, sind die Herrschaften ja dann gerne geneigt, mal wieder einen Krieg loszutreten, wenngleich dies DERZEIT weder Bush noch B.liar sich leisten können. Jedoch: Kommt Zeit, kommt Vorwand - oder mal wieder ein 11. September.)
Viele Leute weltweit freuen sich nun einige Tage lang über die eher unverhoffte Gelegenheit, doch noch einige Prozent billiger sich physisch mit diesen eben nicht beliebig inflationieren (entwertbaren)"Dingen" auszustatten, lange werden diese Discount-Preise nicht so niedrig bleiben, das ist sicher. Solche koordinierten, geballten Auf-Geheiß-von-oben-Zocker-Nummern wie am Freitag sind weder täglich noch wöchentlich wiederholbar - und abgesehen von hirngewaschenen Westlern gibts da halt dummerweise noch ein paar Milliarden andere Menschen weltweit. Mit Sicherheit wird in Indien kommende Woche eine sehr beachtliche Kaufwelle (nach physsichen Edelmetallen, nicht nach US-Dollars!) in Indien anlaufen.
Während dumme Westler (als Durchschnittsaussage) immer erst dann"investieren", wenn"etwas" (egal was) schon überteuert ist, kaufen Inder dann im großen Stil, wenn etwas (zu) billig ist, und halten sich auch mal eine Weile zurück, wenn sie Hoffnung haben, es wird sich eine Gelegenheit zum billigeren Kauf eröffnen, so wie mit dem Abend des 3.10. eingetreten.
Es wird seitens der westlichen Groß- und Notenbanken jedes Mal bei solchen"Großkampftagen" ein Stück"Munition" verpulvert, ohne dass sich an den fundamentalen Umständen auch nur ein Jota gebessert hätte. Ganz im Gegenteil wird durch solche Farcen der tatsächliche Zustand verschleiert, was zur positiven Änderung nie und nimmer günstig sein kann. Bei der russischen und chinesischen Notenbank lacht sich jedenfalls ins Fäustchen und kauft kräftig Monat für Monat zu, während die hiesigen Dampfplauderer davon schwadronieren, man müsse das gelbe Relikt längst vergangener Zeiten endlich verjublen und dafür zinsbringende Titel (z.B. US-Staatsanleihen oder auch Daimler-Aktien) anschaffen. Bei solchen dummdreisten Aussagen führender (ungewählter) Repräsentanten unseres Staates weiß ich wirklich nicht, ob Lachen oder Weinen angebrachter ist. Wie korrupt muss man sein, um sich zu dermaßen fachlich idiotischen Sätzen herabzulassen?
RK


Es folgt der aktuelle Kommentar von Bill Murphy, Chef des Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA):






The James Joyce Table


Gold, Commodities, Midas du Metropole

Topic du Jour




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October 3 - Gold $368.70 down $13.70 - Silver $4.80 down 26 cents
United States Management of Financial Markets An Outrage

“From the glow of enthusiasm I let the melody escape. I pursue it. Breathless I catch up with it. It flies again, it disappears, it plunges into a chaos of diverse emotions. I catch it again, I seize it, I embrace it with delight... I multiply it by modulations, and at last I triumph in the first theme. There is the whole symphony." ~ Ludwig von Beethoven

GO GATA!!!!

Just arrived in Calgary. Warmer here than in Dallas. How strange. Just like the US financial markets.

What a day! This morning was one of the most impressive gold openings ahead of a major economic report I have seen in years. All week long gold was higher during the Asian trading hours, suggesting the Chinese buying out of Australia and New Zealand is ongoing.

Ahead of this now infamous US employment report, gold opened up $2 higher and then shot up almost $4. The dollar was hovering around unchanged. The reason for the gold strength was surging demand in the physical market. The AM Fix in London was $383.95 and the PM Fix was $384.25. As a reminder, physical gold dealings all over the world for this Friday were based on the PM Fix in London. The gold market was on fire and about to close in new high ground. All week The Gold Cartel sat on gold, even though the dollar continued to weaken.

The Wall Street pundits were all expecting a weak jobs report. Made sense as all the input said employers were laying off workers, not hiring. Miraculously, the employment report was far better ON THE SURFACE than anyone expected:

Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. businesses added workers to payrolls for the first time in eight months in September as companies gained confidence the economic expansion may be sustained. The gain wasn't enough to lower the unemployment rate, which held at 6.1 percent. The increase in payrolls was the first rise since January and followed a 41,000 decline in August that was smaller than reported last month, the Labor Department said in Washington. The jobless rate compares with a nine-year high of 6.4 percent reached in June.
Economists had expected payrolls would fall by 25,000 last month following a previously reported decrease of 93,000 in August, according to the median of 70 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. They projected the unemployment rate would rise a tenth of a percentage point to 6.2 percent.
One reason the unemployment rate held steady is that a smaller percentage of the population was in the labor force. The labor force participation rate fell to 66.1 percent, the lowest since December 1991. The U.S. economy has now lost 2.6 million jobs since March 2001, the start of a recession that ended in November of that year.

-END-

Wham! Gold collapsed and the stock market soared.

Even with the dollar soaring and the euro going down 1 on the day, gold roared back to go up $2.60. The gold action was spectacular and fit in with how it was trading all morning.

The increasingly desperate Gold Cartel then went into action. First, they began bombing silver. For years silver has been the cabal’s play toy. They have kept the price subdued and pressure it whenever they want to send a message to gold traders. Then, MORGAN STANLEY and JP MORGAN CHASE, cartel hitmen, went after gold with a vengeance.

What is important to note is they waited until the enormous physical buying was over with at the PM Fix. That is the reason the Fix was so high. Once the Fix was over, they attacked the PAPER market on the Comex. It is about this time I left for Calgary and for the most part was out of the loop, so I don’t have any other names on who did what. Clearly, this attack was pre-planned and no doubt both Morgans got the word out to the rest of the cabal members to aid and abet. Two notes:

*The Gold Cartel capped, capped, capped gold the past two weeks until the time came to strike when they could enlist others to help them elect the massive sell stops of the specs.

*They had their chance to encourage some of the 15 signatories to the Washington Agreement to sell their gold immediately as we are now in the 5th year of the agreement. The fourth year expired a few days ago and they already had sold their 400 tonnes allowed for that year. They were tapped days ago. But, today was a brand new day.

Silver broke 10 cents before the cabal was able to do anything with gold. But, they were only building steam. The silver trashing was abominable. If anything, the employment news could be construed by the mainstream analysts as constructive. Meanwhile, platinum roared to a 23-year high early and commodity prices were steady with crude oil surging again, closing at $30.35 per barrel, up 56 cents on the day.

This is when I left for the airport. Obviously, The Gold Cartel was able to elect the stops and send the black box specs into puking mode. And puke they did. John Brimelow just sent an email reporting today’s gold volume:

35,000- by 12
40,000- 12 -1 PM
90,000- 1 1-30 - no wonder there was little rally!
Total 165,000
You were well away.
JB

You have heard me mention the Gold Cartel’s $6 rule on the upside, which means they go all out to cap gold or knock it down around that level. You can go back over the past half decade and review how few times gold rallied more than $6+. Yet, on the downside there is none of that, no limit. Today had to be one of the biggest drops in years. I suspect ALL other bigger drops (and there could not be many) were all directly related to some kind of specific bearish gold announcement. This was the opposite, gold was roaring in overseas trading action with the commentary building positive momentum.

What we saw today was a pathetic bunch of bullies that have been getting the crap kicked out of them and were forced to violate the anti-trust laws again by orchestrating a coordinated attack on gold using a very strange employment report to their favor.

After five years of administration lies about the gold market, it is only natural to be VERY cynical about this surprising report, which surfaces as the Bush Administration is under siege. The jobs issue is one of the most important for the US political/economic scene. If the numbers were not fudged, it would be a very positive development, but I don't buy it. The anecdotal evidence everywhere suggests jobs are not being created. Now, this government number tells us that notion is not exactly correct???"Something is rotten in the state of Denmark," as the Bard of Avon said, or more appropriately, something is rotten in Washington and on Wall Street.

As for me, it all fits as far as the scoundrelly nature of the entire Washington/Wall Street scene. Mysteriously, the Dow rises almost 200 points on Wednesday for no apparent reason, driven by the massive and mysterious futures buying of Goldman Sachs. The same Goldman Sachs that is called on to bomb gold every time it is about to break out. In addition, before the employment number was released this morning, the S&P rose 3 points all of sudden, again for no apparent reason. Once the employment news broke, the S&P quickly rallied another 12. Gold dropped $5 off its high as the dollar was crushed.

You can’t tell me Goldman wasn’t tipped off about this employment report. You can't tell me both Morgans aren't in the know on what is coming out. Was Goldman’s reward to get the employment number in advance as compensation for capping gold and taking a big hit on the short side for many months? Very suspicious! Too much smoke!

Yesterday, I suspected a “dramatic” move and thought it would be up. Almost right, but dead wrong in the end. City Hall won the day, but I suspect not for long. Gold might suffer for a little while as more specs are forced out, but the handwriting is on the wall. The world is becoming more and more suspect of the doings of the United States, in many respects. The outrageous financial market shenanigans are part of a bigger picture which grows murkier by the day.

The dollar is going to tank, the US stock market won’t stay up on doctored reports much longer and gold is going to soar. The only thing that changed from early this morning with gold near 7-year highs was the activity of a group of White Collar Thugs. The “10+” gold fundamentals are intact. In normal times it would take gold a long time to rebound after this kind of trouncing, but these are not normal times. Gold should be knocking on $400 again before too long.


The John Brimelow Report
Friday, October 3, 2003

India (at least) to the rescue

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.21, PM $7.52, with world gold at $383.10 and $384.10. Deep into legal buying territory. The rupee closed today at a three year high, and that and the fortuitous weakening in world gold has given the Indians an opportunity. Bad news for Bears.

In what Mitsubishi describes as a"very dull day" TOCOM volume declined further, by 15% to the equivalent of only 17,212 Comex lots. There was no sign of BOJ action against the yen, which firmed, and of course NY provided no gold leadership yesterday. The active contract fell 11 yen, and open interest fell the equivalent of 1,154 Comex lots. $US gold did firm, by 95c above the NY close. Over the past few days the Trade house short on TOCOM has been rising by a few hundred Comex contracts a day. The reciprocal is frequently thought of as the"General Public", so there may be some small accumulation going on. (NY yesterday was estimated to have traded 43,000 contracts.)

Obviously all commentaries have been outdated by the response this morning in NY to the Employment numbers. Currently, the reflexive response to sell gold off as the dollar surges has been rejected on heavy volume (20,000 estimated contracts by 10 am). The stance of India, the world's largest single consumer, presumably plays a part in this.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW gave up more than half its gains by the close, finishing at 9572, up 85. The DOG roared ahead to 1880, up 44. The mania continues.

More on the employment news. Behind the headline number, the news was not good at all:

Average hourly earnings fell by 1 cent, to $15.45. This is the first time that nominal earnings fell since 1989.

The benchmark revision for March 2003 was announced. The level of employment is expected to be revised down by 145,000, or one tenth of a percent.

-END-

More from Jessie on the employment report:

http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

From Table A-1, Employment Situation of the Population by Sex and Age

The comparison is between August 2003 and September 2003

The non-adjusted numbers show that the number of employed declined from 138,137,000 to 137,731,000. This is a net loss of 406,000 jobs non seasonally adjusted.

Interestingly enough, the number of unemployed also declined from 8,830,000 to 8,436,000. This is a net loss of 394,000 of the unemployed. Good news huh? A drop in unemployment to 5.8%!

The ratio of the employed to the total population of the US has dropped again, from 62.4 to 62.1 (63 in Sept 2002).

The bottom line is that as workers benefits run out, the Bush administration stops counting them.

But take a look over at the 'seasonally adjusted' number which is where the number ought to have come from, right?

The number of employed DROPPED from 137,625,000 to137,573,000 for a net loss of 52,000 jobs seasonally adjusted by their own numbers.>

So how do they come up with an increase???

Let's take a look at their actual release.

http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

In Table A. under Civilian Labor Force, Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, we do indeed see a running decline from August through September of 137,625 to 137,573 for a net loss of 52 (in thousands).

The 'good news' of today comes in the next area of the table under"Establishment" with the heading"Non Farm Employment."

Here we show the 'good news' gain from the employed from 129,805 to 129,862 for a net gain of 57 (in thousands). All the numbers are marked with a (p) meaning preliminary as in subject to revision. Nine out of ten americans will notice, by the way, that the total number of nonfarm employed was 129,862, which is considerably less than the total of 137,573,000, which means that we now have 7,711,000 farmers in this country. Or just more unaccounted for unemployed.

If you look at the breakdown, you will see that all the gain offsetting losses came from"Service Providing" with a gain of 74,000. Indeed the text of the release says:

"Professional and business services added 66,000 jobs in September; half of the gain occurred in temporary help services. Since April, temporary help has added 147,000 jobs. Architectural and engineering services employment increased by 9,000 in September."

The bottom line is that a preliminary estimate, which assumes we are becoming consultants or temps when we lose work, was the headline number, and the 'real number' was a loss somewhere between 406,000 and 52,000 depending on how much of a seasonal adjustment you allow. Since a large number of college age kids are returning to school, I would accept the 52,000 number as a reasonable estimate.

However, the most realistic approach is to look at the trends, and ignore these shockingly bad estimates from Elaine Cho and her Administration cronies, similar to the $15 billion in PC sales that the Administration marked up to $133 billion because they were 'faster.'

-END-

Thanks Jeesie - well done.

Bill King notes:

"AMG reports money market funds had a record outflow of $48.B for the weekend ended 10/1. That implies M2 and M3 will be down sharply next week. Also, equity outflows of $2.2B were the largest since March. Sounds like consumers are paying bills after the tax rebate."

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:
The Fed added another $2 Billion in repos today Oct 3, 2003. This action kept the repurchase agreement pool of available funds right on its up-slope 30-day moving average [even though the pool fell back to $24.99B].

The chart reveals that the DOW has regained its 30-day moving upwards moving average as a result of the recent massive Fed repo interventions. One should appreciate the Herculean efforts required of the Fed's"Desk" to move the DOW only a few hundred points.

The currency market remain volatile and anything could happen.
Mike

Chuck checked in during the day:

Every time you think that the groundhog day scenario has played out, another day just like the previous ones comes. No exception today. The irrelevant past information causes the Pavlovian response-buy stocks get out of golds on the opening. Silver down sharply AGAIN on a Friday. I haven't kept track, but I would guess that over the past three months the aggregate losses on silver on a Friday was almost $1.00. To me Friday is the most irrelevant day of the week, and notice that is almost never a down Friday for the market and a particularly good day for gold.

You can tell I am frustrated by it, but I have felt that after the holiday week, we should have the"real" market surface. Let's stay the course. Later. Chuck

From The Café’s man on the gold options floor:

I feel a bit relieved after this wash out, having predicted it a bit too early.....Any rally from here will probably be smashed and some more stops to get elected....then when everyone thinks the rally is over and options premiums are back closer to earth, then the rally will resume....-END-

From Haggis in Aussie Land:

I now appears that the US$ Index of 92 is a line that MUST be supported, and thus the Gold price was scarified to protect this today.

Where to from here?

There is an old saying in Scotland that “ye can buy it on the never never”, so it appears we, in the West, are all living in “never never land”, where there are no debts and every thing can be bought on credit … and with low interest, you don’t have to “pay” it back..

Gold will “Go”, it is a question of when. The “System” in the USA must now be totally corrupt, and that goes from the top down. The Asians will by more “cheap” Gold and there will by additional pressure to off load the US$.

At US$368, the Gold price is now lies above its medium term support trend line, with it long term support at US$360. However, it is not so much the Gold price that is now at centre stage, it is the US$ and the US Treasuries.. WE are now at the start of a second stage in the Markets, whereby “gravity” will slowly pull everything down.

So, the correction in the Gold price marks a watershed, and like all watersheds it will be downhill from here. My “bet” is that it will not be in Gold.
Och aye
Haggis

This says it all about today from a fellow Cafe member:

Bill:
I'm sure you've received plenty of opinion on today's action so I'll spare you my comments about gold and silver and provide a few other musings, to wit

1. During today's various market manipulations oil quietly climbed above $30. The entire energy group moved higher. Anyone notice?

2. I heard a commentator on Bloomberg state that the"recovery" is now indisputable and that the market's reaction is therefore appropriate. People may have differences of opinion on things, but you can't dispute the data, says he. CAN'T DISPUTE THE DATA??? We've just been through corporate scandel after corporate scandal, with the top name accounting firms having certified books that were cooked and we're being told you can't dispute the data? Enron,,,Tyco...Worldcom. Wouldn't it have been a good idea to dispute the data they fed us? Oh I see...this data comes from a US federal agency so its beyond reproach. Well, I've got news for this guy and all of these bubble artists such as CNBC's Kudlow, US economic data is so flawed and spun that its become virtually useless. The government has the leeway and motive to to produce false statistics and then"revise" them later. The United States rarely tells the truth anymore. Our most recent Secretary of the Treasury basically said so.

3. The very notion of the administration suggesting that we need to spend over half a billion dollars in an effort to look for WPD in Iraq is so laughably pathetic on so many fronts that this itself ought to have sent the Dow down 100 points today. The cost of our out-of-control foreign fiascos are going to hit the markets over the head at some point. I've been on this planet about a half a century and I remember the cold war quite well including the air raid drills as a child in school. And you know what? We didn't"win" the cold war. In fact to a large degree what we're facing today is the Truman Doctrine coming home to roost. So here we are supposedly having won the cold war and now"winning" the war in Afghanastan and Iraq. So I say...give me back the cold war. I felt safer. We didn't"win" anything then and we aren't"winning" anything now.

Does all of this tie in to the gold and silver manipulation? You know the answer.
Best,
Jeff

Hi Bill,


IS EVERYONE OK?
Today I lost a little
But really not a lot
The Fed attack came out
That really hit the spot
The names of Stanley & Morgan
Chased around this historic day
They stole from the people's Fort Knox
and made all Americans pay

IS EVERYONE OK?

A golden light will shine
To remember today's reflection
We must address the evil
and prevent Bush's re-election
The world will help us win
They are sick of the dollars play
The crooks go out on stretchers
That's all I have to say

IS EVERYONE OK?

Best, Gold Fish

The gold shares were hit hard as would be expected. The HUI fell 9.46 to 189.37 and the XAU dropped 4.27 to 88.63.

While today’s bashing was no fun, it changes nothing. THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime is still in play. For investors looking to jump on board, you have a gift.

That’s it folks. Late to a dinner.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT! and WE ARE GOING TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

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• Das Marktgeschen am Tag der Einheit - so ehrlich wie die deutsche Einheit - RK, 04.10.2003, 17:24