FED Gouvernors:wenn nur die Pressen heiss genug laufen, dann kommen die Jobs

verfasst von kingsolomon, 08.10.2003, 14:31

-->von selbst. Unsere Wirtschaft ist einfach zu perfekt(sprich"produktiv"),
deswegen dauerts diesmal etwas länger *LOL*

FED Anprache für doofe wallstreeter...

Fed Hammers Home Low-Rate Message
Tue October 7, 2003 11:41 PM ET
By Tim Ahmann

TULSA, Okla. (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is on track for solid growth but low interest rates are needed to ensure the recovery is fast enough to generate jobs, two top Federal Reserve officials said on Tuesday.

"We will need to see job growth before we can say that we have a sustainable recovery," Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig said in an otherwise upbeat address to business leaders in Tulsa.

While Hoenig painted a picture of an economy on the mend, he said a lack of jobs growth meant the economy still needed the monetary medicine the Fed had offered in cutting overnight interest rates to a 45-year low of 1 percent.

Since the U.S. economy exited recession in November 2001, 1 million non-farm jobs have been lost, although the recovery did manage to eke out 57,000 new jobs last month.

Dallas Fed chief Robert McTeer also focused on labor market weakness in delivering a speech in New York.

McTeer told a Wall Street crowd rapid gains in productivity -- the amount any given worker can produce in an hour -- were the main reason job growth was lacking.

"From a macroeconomic perspective, it's a simple problem," McTeer said."All you have to do is run the economy hotter."

While neither official currently has a vote on the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's policy-setting panel, they do participate in the debates.

After the last two FOMC meetings in August and September, Fed officials said they believed rates could be kept low for a"considerable period," which for the U.S. central bank marked an unusually candid assessment on the course of policy.

The latest comments from McTeer and Hoenig served to underscore that message.

Indeed, the Kansas City Fed chief said the central bank might even need to cut rates further in the unlikely event the recovery looked set to falter.

"If job losses intensify or if the economy was at risk of slipping back into recession, a more accommodative monetary policy might be appropriate," Hoenig said."However, I think this outcome is unlikely."

He said the Fed would have to move toward a less"accommodative" rate policy over time once the economy was on a strong growth path with sustained increases in employment, but he added:"This is certainly not an immediate issue."

PEDAL TO THE FLOOR

Both regional Fed bank presidents said they believed the economy had accelerated recently and was on track for robust growth through the end of the year and a solid pace of expansion in 2004.

"Fundamental economic forces currently in place should drive the economy toward sustainable economic growth with modest inflation," Hoenig said.

He said he expected the U.S. economy, which expanded at just a 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, to grow at a quick 4.5 percent pace over the remainder of the year and at a decent 4 percent clip or better in 2004.

McTeer, who has laid out a similar forecast, said that growth in the third quarter may have topped 5 percent if companies rebuilt their inventories and could be over 4 percent even if they had not.

But despite forecasts for faster growth, both officials said inflation was likely to remain well contained.

"Should the bond guys worry about this?" McTeer asked rhetorically about the traders who get spooked by the possibility inflation might emerge."I don't think so, because we still have plenty of slack" in the economy, referring to a relatively high 6.1 percent jobless rate and unused industrial capacity.

While McTeer pinned the lack of jobs creation on strong productivity gains, Hoenig warned that part of the problem might be due to structural changes in the economy, which he said could mean the employment gains needed to ensure a sustainable recovery might be slow in coming.

"While I am confident that people will find new jobs, they are more likely to be in a new industry that requires new skills," he said."But this will take time and involve more than simply returning to the old job or the old way of doing things."

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gesamter Thread:

• FED Gouvernors:wenn nur die Pressen heiss genug laufen, dann kommen die Jobs - kingsolomon, 08.10.2003, 14:31
  • "All you have to do is run the economy hotter." (owT) - zani, 08.10.2003, 14:58
  • Re: Rülps (mit verdaulichem Text) - Theo Stuss, 08.10.2003, 15:42
    • Re: Kleiner Tippfehler am Ende - Theo Stuss, 08.10.2003, 15:47
      • zur Erinnerung:von Hoenig/Dalmas stammt der Papier mit dem Schwundgeld-Vorschlag - kingsolomon, 08.10.2003, 17:36
        • Re: Durchhalten bis zum Endsieg, Heil! - Theo Stuss, 08.10.2003, 18:56
          • Besten Dank für die Kommentare, besser als eine Ãœbersetzung:-) (owT) - LenzHannover, 09.10.2003, 16:50