Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- was ist mit dem Ã-l los? - Yak, 10.10.2003, 19:52
- Re: Uranminen-Betreiber Cameco läuft auch ganz gut - Energiekrise??? (owT) - Bob, 10.10.2003, 20:12
- Re: was ist mit dem Ã-l los? - MC Muffin, 10.10.2003, 20:48
- Vielleicht hat Arnie seinen Job falsch verstanden und jagt Raffinerien hoch *gg (owT) - stocksorcerer, 11.10.2003, 09:16
- Re: was ist mit dem Ã-l los? - Cosa, 12.10.2003, 10:41
Re: was ist mit dem Ã-l los?
-->>Der Winter hat noch nicht begonnen und Ã-l geht an die Decke.
>Dollarabsturz? OPEC? Oder kommen immer mehr darauf, dass ab 2010 die Produktion dem Bedarf nicht mehr schritthalten kann?
>Da bahnt sich wohl was Größeres an.
***************
Hi Yak,
vermutlich 'denken' die Märkte kurzfristiger.
Fundamental spricht einiges für steigende Preise; IEA schätzt in Q4 einen höheren globalen Bedarf; niedrige US-Lagerbestände; unklare Situation in Venezuela; EIA rechnet mit Röhölpreis von 30 USD/Barrel über den Winter; mögliche weitere Kürzung der Ã-lförderung durch die OPEC. Sollte der Winter dann noch richtig kalte Temperaturen bringen, oh weh, dann geht die Post ab; aber vorher wird der jetztige Anstieg wohl korrigiert.
Grosse Unbekannte bleibt wohl die irakische Produktion.
Von gestern eine Meldung:
Demand growth to quicken soon—IEA
London |Reuters | 11-10-2003
Oil demand growth in major consuming nations will accelerate in the next three months as low
natural gas stocks strain fuel supplies for the northern winter, the International Energy
Agency said yesterday.
Global oil demand is forecast to rise to 80.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter
of this year, up 700,000 bpd or 0.9 percent from the last year, the IEA, adviser on energy to
26 industrialised nations said in its Monthly Oil Market Report.
It would be the first time quarterly world oil demand has topped 80 million bpd, said Antoine
Halff, IEA demand analyst.
"Heating oil demand growth is expected to rebound sharply in the fourth quarter, as US natural
gas supplies remain constrained in the face of robust demand," the IEA said.
"Any spike in winter demand, whether driven by cold weather or by a continued pick-up in the
pace of industrial activity, could disproportionately boost distillate demand."
Yearly global growth will ease to 500,000 bpd in the first quarter 2004, reflecting heavy
heating demand at the start of this year.
Oil prices have risen nearly 20 per cent in little over two weeks after the Opec's shock
decision to cut supply by 3.5 per cent from November 1. Brent crude in London was hovering
near industrialised nations' $30 a barrel pain barrier.
The fourth quarter demand gains will be a pick-up from sluggish consumption over the last
three months as low river levels hampered fuel deliveries in Europe and a cool summer cut
air-conditioning demand for natural gas in Japan, the IEA said.
US natural gas supplies remain tight and vulnerable to sudden price jumps that would force
industrial users to burn oil instead, the IEA said.
"Although natural gas inventories rebuilt faster than expected ahead of winter, prices remain
relatively high and supplies are still constrained even as the amount of natural gas-fired power
generation capacity continues to rise," the IEA said.
Commercial crude oil stocks in industrialised nations rose just 90,000 bpd in August to 2.55
billion, to rest 76 million barrels below last year, the IEA said. Forward demand cover held level
at 53 days, two days below 2002.
Non-OECD nations will account for around half the fourth quarter demand increase. Chinese
consumption soared to a record high of 5.62 million bpd in August, a 15 per cent gain
year-on-year as rises in factory output, as a hot summer and growing car ownership boosted
consumption, the IEA said.
"The decision to cut production is consistent with Opec's policy of setting targets to
undersupply the market which enters the heating season with stocks at the lower end of their
five-year range," the IEA said.
Iraqi output grew by nearly 400,000 bpd for the second month running, the IEA said."Iraqi
production has been recovering more quickly than expected," it said.
The IEA revised down its 2003 estimate of the demand for Opec's oil — the 'call' on Opec crude
— by 100,000 bpd to 25.6 million barrels per day, as rival supplies rise from the former Soviet
Union.
It left its 2004 call unchanged at 24.9 million bpd. Opec's production ceiling — excluding Iraq's
production — will be 24.5 million bpd from November 1.
"The decision to trim back on production eases pressure on Opec in the short term. Yet
difficult decisions lie ahead. The call plummets to just over 23 million barrels per day at the end
of the winter heating season," the IEA said.
Gruss
Cosa
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