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Mix-Ansicht- Kondratieff-Zyklus / Merriman - Toni, 06.11.2000, 01:39
- Re: Kondratieff-Zyklus / Merriman / Meilenstein owT - JüKü, 06.11.2000, 03:05
Kondratieff-Zyklus / Merriman
Die Kondratieff-Welle schwappt immer wieder hier ins Forum herein.
(z.B. Posting 16357 vom Orakel, 17863 von pecunia, 22538 und 22764 von black elk sowie 22546 von JüKü - - - die Aufzählung ist nur zum Bluffen und zum Ablenken von der Tatsache, dass in meinen Papierstapeln ein heilloses Durcheinander herrscht ;-)
Hier deshalb für mich und Euch eine Zusammenfassung bzw Interpretation von Merriman samt Anwendung auf den von ihm postulierten 54-year cycle (alles abgeschrieben aus Raymond Merriman: The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing. Volume 1: Cycles and Pattens in the Indexes; Seek-it Publications, West Bloomfield 1997):
Merkmale der K-Wave
~"During periods of growth, the number of years in which prosperity dominates outnumbers those where contraction is evident. During the contraction phase, there are far greater numbers of years of decline than years of prosperity.
~ During years of contraction, agriculture usually suffers a more pronounced stage of depression than other areas of commercial activity.
~ During the contraction phase, there are many new important inventions along with development of techniques and communication that assist the productive process and ultimately lead to rapid expansion. However, these new innovations are not applied on any meaningful scale until the contractionary phase is complete and the next long-term growth period begins.
~ At the beginning of the growth phase, gold production usually expands. The world market for goods and services is enlarged by the assimilation of new countries, especially from former protectorates.
~ Wars of major economic significance occur near the end of the contractionary phase of the cycle. Wars of emotive significance usually occur near the end of the growth phase of the cycle.
... It is tempting to transpose this cycle onto the stock market. In fact, many modern-day analysts have attempted to do just that, under the assumption that the stock market and the economy are virtually one and the same cycle... There are at least two errors in this reasoning. The first is that the economy is reality, whereas the value of stock indices is a perception - or anticipation - of what might be.... In the majority of cases, the stock market had already turned down from its cycle peak before the economy turned down. Likewise the stock market had already begun rising in a great majority of cases by the time the economy reached its trough....
The second error... Kondratieff measured prices based on an agrarian economy. The stock market measures primarily a manufacturing economy, presently (late 20th century) in transition to a technologically-based economy.... It is more reasonable to assume that these two cycles - the economy and the stock market - will not move exactly in tandem. And in fact, they do not. However, both do have a 54-year cycle, given the normal 1/6-time band orb of the cycle's median length. However, these 54-year cycles bottom at different times, usually the stock market first, the economy afterwards." p. 23-25
Es folgt dann eine mehrseitige Abhandlung über das richtige Plazieren des vorletzten Kondratieff-Tiefs, was mehr einschläfernd als inspirierend ist. Wenn's jemanden interessiert, bitte melden.
Jedenfalls, nach Merriman (d.h. cycle immer von Tief zu Tief gedacht):
1932 war der vorletzte 54-year cycle, und
Seit 1987 ist die neue Kondratieff-Welle am laufen
Es gibt dagegen auch die Ansicht, dass die letzte K-Wave noch nicht abgeschlossen ist.
Merimans Begründung für die neue Welle stützt sich hauptsächlich auf den dritten und vierten Bullet-Punkt oben (Dei folgenden Zitate sind aus: Forecasts 2000, p. 35/36):
"In the mid 1980's through the early 1990's there indeed was the development of techniques (and communication that assisted) the productive process and ultimately lead to rapid expansion. We started the technology and telecommunications revolution that has led to the emergence of this New World Economy. Think 'Internet'.... The Internet commerce did not really get started until 1994-1995, when commercial enterprises entered the picture. Since then, the amount of people doing business on the Internet has grown exponentially every six months. This is truly a characteristic consistent with Kondratieff's description of a new cycle....
"In 1988-1989, under Glasnost, Russian Communist control of several nations came to an end. Over 300 million new people... became consumers of available world goods,..."
Irgendwo verweist er auch noch auf den Golfkrieg als"war of economic significance" vom"emotive" Typ, habe die Stelle aber nicht mehr gefunden.
Gemäss dem ersten Bullet oben werden Krisenzeiten, die es auf jeden Fall gibt, kurz sein."There will be more up periods of growth, than down years of recession, until the cycle has topped out. And we are only in the first phase now. The top is not due until after the middle of the second (18-year) phase."
(zZt befinden wir uns in der Hälfte des vierten 4-year cycle des ersten 18-year cycle; das Top ist"immer" im vierten - d.h. jetzt dann bald - oder im fünften 4-year cycle fällig).
Viel Spass beim Wellenreiten.
Yours,
Toni
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