Re: Panikverkäufe in Russland

verfasst von Cosa, 27.10.2003, 11:34

-->>Tatneft ist einfach auf die untere Trendbegrenzung zurückgefallen. Diese Aktie ist nach wie vor niedrig bewertet.
>Einsammeln auf diesem Niveau,
>empfiehlt Ecki1
**************
Hi Ecki,

da könnte man vielleicht noch etwas warten mit den Einsammeln; aber Tatneft steht auch auf meiner Einkaufsliste wie auch Lukoil. Bis zum WE hatte ich bei Yukos auf einen Rücksetzer gewartet, um einzusteigen, fass die jetzt aber erst einmal nicht an.

momentan rauscht der RTS so durch:

[img][/img]

eine Beurteilung von heute von aton.ru zu Yukos:

YUKOS

Khodorkovsky jailed, Yukos Buy and Sibneft Hold recommendations suspended pending more clarity on situation

Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky was charged on Saturday afternoon with tax evasion, fraud and other crimes (seven charges in total) after being detained in Novosibirsk and brought back to Moscow earlier in the day; under a court ruling he is to remain in custody until Dec 30, 2003. Most of the charges appear to lie in the"gray" area of Russian law where it is difficult to distinguish between clever exploitation of imperfect legislation and flagrant violation of the law. Given almost any business activity in Russia since the early 1990s fits into this"gray" zone, the decision to single out Yukos and its CEO for prosecution appears to be at least partly politically motivated.

This is clearly a major negative development for Yukos in particular and the market in general. From the macro perspective, we feel this development is of the same magnitude as Russia's recent upgrade to investment grade status by Moody's, only with a different vector: if the upgrade re-emphasized Russia's much improved financial situation, Khodorkovky's arrest serves as an unwelcome reminder of Russia's high country risk, questionable legal system and zero-sum game politics.

Needless to say, this development is going to hit the stock market both from the standpoint of overall investor sentiment and for technical reasons -Yukos and Sibneft together account for 32% of the RTS Index and any material declines in their stock prices are bound to drag the entire market lower. Our forecast calls for a 10%-15% market drop in the next few days, with Yukos clearly"outperforming" the market on the way down.

What we find equally troubling is that unlike in July, Yukos no longer has the barrage of good news to feed to the market to resuscitate its stock price. Even the last ace up Yukos' sleeve - a potential deal with a strategic investor - looks increasingly unrealistic in light of recent events. Add to this the massive unrealized gains on Yukos positions acquired in 2001-2002 that investors may now be tempted to convert into cash and the picture of investor exodus from the stock may reach Biblical proportions.

The impact is unlikely to be limited to equities. We would expect to see country and corporate bond spreads expand possibly to pre-upgrade levels (Sibneft Eurobonds being more vulnerable for obvious reasons); Khodorkovsky's arrest is also likely to trigger some capital flight, putting pressure on the ruble. We thus would expect to see a 25-50 bp spread expansion and ruble weakening to R/$ 30.2-30.3 in coming weeks.

We are removing our fundamental Buy recommendation on Yukos and Hold recommendation on Sibneft until we get more visibility on how the situation will unfold; our tactical recommendation is Sell given that all scenarios envision Yukos and Sibneft shares declining in value and under-performing the market in the near term. For investors who want to maintain exposure to the Russian oil and gas sector, we strongly advise switching into Lukoil and Gazprom common, followed by Tatneft as a more speculative option. Surgutneftegaz and Gazprom ADS both remain overvalued and overbought and are thus likely to suffer materially during the correction.


Gruss
Cosa

Thread gesperrt

 

gesamter Thread:

• Panikverkäufe in Russland - wheely, 27.10.2003, 10:21
  • Re: Panikverkäufe in Russland - Ecki1, 27.10.2003, 10:35
    • Re: Panikverkäufe in Russland - Euklid, 27.10.2003, 10:37
      • nur zur Info habe gekauft - EM-financial, 27.10.2003, 11:15
        • Re: nur zur Info habe gekauft - Euklid, 27.10.2003, 11:22
          • ja aber mit Stop ;-) - EM-financial, 27.10.2003, 12:54
    • Re: Panikverkäufe in Russland - Cosa, 27.10.2003, 11:34
      • Re: Panikverkäufe in Russland - wheely, 27.10.2003, 11:52
        • Re: Panikverkäufe in Russland - Cosa, 27.10.2003, 13:00
      • Re: Panikverkäufe in Russland - Ecki1, 27.10.2003, 12:49
  • Link - Nickelman, 27.10.2003, 11:35
  • Systempresse - VictorX, 27.10.2003, 14:45