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Mix-Ansicht- Japan versus China: Russia has a guess! - Emerald, 04.11.2003, 14:13
Japan versus China: Russia has a guess!
-->Moscow is taling up the prospects for a US$ 5,8 Bio. pipeline to the Pacific that could supply crude oil to Japan, having previously backed a rival scheme for a shorter, cheaper route to China. While the financial and practical case fot the latter is far stronger, this is not simply a business decision. And uncertainties over Moscow's political priorities mean that although the Chines option is the favourite, it is not certain to win the race.
Vladimir Putin and Junichiro Koizumi agreed on october 20th at the APEC summit to intensify expert - level talks on the feasibility of US$ 5.8Bio., 3.885-km pipeline from Angarsk in East Siberia, a region with large untapped oil reserves, to Nakhodka on Ruissia's Pacific Coast.
Japan has reportedly offered financing of US$ 5,0 Bio.to assist in building the pipeline plus US$ 2,0 Bio t develop oil deposits in eastern Siberia, in an effort defeat a rival project for US$ 2,7 Bio., 2213-km pipeline from Angarsk to the Chinese oil centre, Daqing. The Chinese route has a proposed capacity of 600.000 b/d while the Pacific option is planned to have a 1m b/d capacity. Given technical and financial constraints, only one project can be implemented this decade.
These rival projects have been on the drawing board for over a decade. In the last year momentum has built up behind the Angarsk-Daqing route, with Russias's government indicating its preference through the commissioning of a feasibility study. Yen Japan's determination to diversify its oil supply base away from the Middle East has boosted Angarsk-Nakhodka project.
Angarsk-Daquin is the clear favourite on business grounds, and it fits better with Russia's foreign policiy priorities. The flexibility offered by Nakhodka appears to be a luxury that Russia cannot afford. But this decition will be taken by the political leadership, not the oil companies. And if Mr. Putin is serious about developing the Far East, regardless of whether such schemes are feasible, the Angarsk-Nakhodka route cannot be ruled out.
end.
(Quelle Country Monitor (Economist Intelligence Unit) vom 27.10.2003.)
Es tut sich was im Oel-Geschäft und Russland bleibt ein maximaler Faktor.
Emerald.
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