Re: Hier die Interpretation vom grand old man Jim Sinclair dazu

verfasst von chiquito, 10.11.2003, 15:40

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COT Trots Out Trojan For Last Time?

Author: Jim Sinclair




Inadvertently, I believe, but still detrimental to the Gold Community at large, is the latest Trojan horse to be rolled out of the COT stable.

It appeared in a Gold Eagle article by Sol Palha who quotes Forbes as saying, “The Journal’s coverage of tax matters focuses on a provision to allow US multinationals a one year window to repatriate profits from abroad at a reduced tax rate of 5.25% instead of the current 35% rate. The bill will also eliminate a tax exemption for Americans working abroad.”
The article goes on to interpret this tax loophole as a means of bulling the dollar higher into the 2004 election. After carefully laying the foundation for his follow-up recommendation, Palha advises his clients to sell gold and gold shares.
I already answered this issue in detail in last week’s article, “Jim Answers Richard Russell’s Question.” However, because I am receiving “Emergency” communications from terrified Gold Community members, I will again give you the skinny on what this really is and its potential impact on gold.
This tax legislation is a purely pork barrel effort designed to benefit select recipients before the 2004 election. (Nothing really new here!). However, this particular effort is being seriously misinterpreted by the writer and is not significantly dollar positive or gold negative in the least. Here’s why”
 The amount of funds that can be affected by this legislation are estimated at $150 billion to $300 billion.
 These funds would trade in the inter-bank market for currency.
 Money repatriated in a legal tax laundry loophole can be expatriated the next day, zeroing the slight impact the trade might have.
 The size of the inter-bank market for currency is estimated by the Saint Louis Federal Reserve at one trillion dollars per day. So what is the big deal about even $300 billion over 365 days?
 The writer may not know it, but tax treaties exist between the US and almost every major economy in the world. Under these tax treaties, double taxation is significantly modified by making the taxes paid to one nation deductible from US taxes. Because of this, the effective rate in this type of a situation is far from 35%.
So the arithmetic of this legislation is intriguing as it is with any other legislation proposed by this administration. It leads me to believe that some US Fat Cats are getting a gift in this pork barrel tax bill that will allow them to repatriate funds that in fact might not be taxed at all but is needed here in the US.
Keep in mind that the Grand Cayman Islands has a Zero tax rate so funds there have been taxed but at the zero rate. My financial detective sense of “follow the politically favored money” makes this special interest pork barrel tax bill smell like a tax laundering mechanism.
One thing this tax bill is NOT is dollar bullish and gold bearish. So forget the nonsense making the rounds in the Gold Community and get ready for the real play in gold that’s coming soon to a theatre near you.
Beware of the self-styled “gold experts” with no experience in foreign exchange markets or any other market for that matter. Intellectual knowledge is dangerous when it’s laid upon the real world of trading.
Analytical knowledge is good but those that have it in many cases simply do not understand the mechanics of markets and often get lost because of their inexperience. Generally half- experienced geniuses become half-assed advisors.



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gesamter Thread:

• Hallo Emerald, war dir das bekannt? - siggi, 10.11.2003, 12:52
  • Teile dieser News wurden hier am Samstag oder Sonntag eingestellt............... - Emerald, 10.11.2003, 13:49
    • Re: Samstag oder Sonntag eingestellt. Sorry, ist mir wohl entgangen, aber - siggi, 10.11.2003, 14:45
      • u.A. sind ganz ausgewählte Broker beauftragt f.d. FED Dow-&amp; S&amp;P-Werte zu kaufen! - Emerald, 10.11.2003, 14:51
  • Re: Hier die Interpretation vom grand old man Jim Sinclair dazu - chiquito, 10.11.2003, 15:40