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Mix-Ansicht- CNN-Artikel: Der Vorletzte Absatz ist interessant! mvT. - ufi, 08.11.2000, 09:43
CNN-Artikel: Der Vorletzte Absatz ist interessant! mvT.
NEW YORK (CNNfn) - The sun will be shining on Wall Street after Texas
governor George W. Bush became the new president-elect by a narrow margin
putting Wall Street in the winner's circle.
The Street placed their betting chips, albeit cautiously, in the Republican
camp, sending pro-Bush stocks, healthcare, defense and oil, chugging higher.
Analysts say investors should be ready for a modest rally when the opening
bell is rung.
"The market's reaction would be more positive
short-term. We've already had a"Bush" rally in the
last four-to-six weeks," said Ned Riley, chief
investment strategist with State Street Global
Advisors."Investors were already anticipating a Republican government."
Riley said healthcare stocks were set to rally after they had weakened a bit as
a hedge against a victory by Vice President Al Gore in the dead heat race for
the White House.
But Microsoft (MSFT: Research, Estimates), oil and drug stocks rallied this fall
ahead the election, a sign the gains could already be played out.
"If Bush wins, (these stocks) will also go down because they have for the last
six weeks signaled a Bush victory," Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at
First Albany, said before the election.
Analysts also anticipate more money flowing into Wall Street as a result of
Bush's $1.3 trillion tax cut proposal.
This hallmark of the Bush campaign might jolt an economy and spur consumer
spending just as a record expansion is beginning to slow. And a White House
controlled by Republicans, who favor smaller, less-regulatory government, can
only hearten the nation's chief executives.
But not so fast, some say. Lower taxes and
shrinking government revenue could also force a
return to the kind of government borrowing
discouraged by Federal Reserve chairman Alan
Greenspan and frowned upon by Wall Street.
In the end, the economy, not politics, has more
impact on markets. And the $10 trillion American
economy is larger than the leader of the free world.
"The president only has so much influence over the
economy and legislation," Angel Mata, head of
equity trading at Legg Mason, told CNNfn's market coverage.
Still, the Bush win lifts a burden off the pharmaceutical, tobacco and oil
industries that faced heavier controls under the Democrats. And Microsoft, hit
by anti-trust charges under Clinton's Justice Department, may now be closer to
settling those problems than ever before.
Click here for election-sensitive stocks
The White House is just half the story. It's too early to tell if Congress will
remain Republican, which would give the GOP control of both legislative
branches for the first time since 1952. But the development could be a hefty
negative for a market that loves divided government. The split in power from
1994 through the present period was much better for the stocks than 1992
through 1994, when Democrats controlled both branches of government.
"With divided government, the markets can rest assured that the kids won't be
let loose in the candy store, leaving the budget surplus largely intact," said
Tony Crescenzi, bond market analyst at Miller, Tabak & Co.
With the two branches in Republican hands, the chances for a Bush's tax cut
would improve. The Bush tax cut could stimulate the economy by increasing
consumer spending, which would ultimately translate into more money flowing
into Wall Street.
The divided government of the late 90s, one of the market's best periods, meant
Democrats not getting new spending programs and Republicans going without
new tax cuts.
But Americans have increasingly come to see the economy's fate as larger and
more complicated than the policies of one president. At the same time, the last
recession of the early 90s could remain too distant a memory for Gore to
benefit from any turnaround.
Many credit much of the economy's success to Fed Chairman Greenspan,
who, in retrospect, has handled interest rate decisions with seeming
prescience.
Greenspan's next term expires in 2004. No one expects Greenspan, who will
be 78 at the time, to stay on. And some, including Millar Tabak's Crescenzi,
see Greenspan retiring once Bush settles in.
But this much is clear: It's over. And for a market ever-paralyzed by
uncertainty, the race's end could spark a stock rally simply because a
razor-close, two-year, multi-million dollar contest is now history.
[b]
Es darf diskutiert werden, was das bedeutet!
Gruß
ufi
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