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Mix-Ansicht- an die Schweizer, Schweizer-Macher und Willkomm-Schweizer....................... - Emerald, 26.11.2003, 20:48
- Re: an die Schweizer, Schweizer-Macher und Willkomm-Schweizer....................... - chiron, 26.11.2003, 21:47
an die Schweizer, Schweizer-Macher und Willkomm-Schweizer.......................
-->interessant wie man ennet dem Teich über die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des
Klein-Staates CH denkt, analysiert und philosophiert:
Switzerland's Cozy Slump May be Europe's Future
Matthew Lynn: Switzerland's Cozy Slump May Be Europe's Future - 'By 2050, the UN says, 38 percent of the Swiss population will be older than 60, compared with 21 percent in 2000.'....
Matthew Lynn is a columnist for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.
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Switzerland's Cozy Slump May Be Europe's Future: Matthew Lynn
Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- In the 1949 film classic ``The Third Man,'' the racketeer Harry Lime, played by Orson Welles, contemptuously dismisses Switzerland with the remark: ``In Switzerland they had brotherly love, five hundred years of democracy and peace, and what did they produce? The cuckoo clock.''
If Graham Greene, the scriptwriter on the film, were putting together those lines now, he might add something else to the list: comfortable stagnation.
The Swiss economy, once one of the most efficient in the world, appears locked in a growth slump. The rest of the global economy goes up and down, but Switzerland remains in its own little rut.
Yet, while the rest of the world frets about how to kick- start the economy, no-growth Switzerland sails serenely on as one of the wealthiest, most stable societies on Earth.
Switzerland's cozy stagnation may well be what awaits much of Europe. Call it the Zurich model: rich, stable and comfortable, but inactive. Europe may not be quite so prosperous, but it also has much of what Switzerland is experiencing: low growth, aging populations, and excess savings, reflected by trade surpluses -- and the comfort factor.
The growth figures coming out of Switzerland have been weak for years. From 1990 to 2002, Switzerland added just 2.3 percent to its per-capita gross domestic product, compared with 15 percent in Germany and 18 percent in France, which have themselves become low-growth states.
Growing Pains
The economy shrank in the three months through June, confirming Switzerland's longest recession in a decade, with three successive quarterly contractions. The government said last month it expects the Swiss economy to contract by 0.3 percent this year, and although it should start growing again in 2004, the rate will not climb higher than 1.5 percent.
The Swiss National Bank has cut interest rates to 0.25 percent, but even that kind of monetary stimulus doesn't appear to be having much effect. Switzerland refuses to grow.
The prolonged slump has inflicted some strain. The Swiss, for decades the world's most financially stable people, are now having to grapple with budget deficits. The government this month said it was looking for spending cuts or tax increases to plug the hole in its finances.
So, should we start sending food parcels packed with fondue, and get the Red Cross to focus on looking after people in its own backyard? Hardly. The Swiss are still among the most prosperous people in the world.
Swiss banking employees -- and there are plenty of them -- make an average of 7,642 Swiss francs ($5,823) a month, according to a recent report by the Federal Statistics Office. Swiss workers earned an average $46,993 in 2002, second only to Luxembourg in the global rankings.
Rich and Aging
The October unemployment rate stayed at just 4 percent -- compared with 6 percent in the U.S., and well below the September rate of 8.8 percent in the 12 countries that share the euro.
That is the Swiss economy's paradox: prosperity without growth. The country is rich and comfortable, but getting older.
According to United Nations figures, its population grew from 4.69 million to 7.17 million between 1950 and 2000. By 2025, however, it will shrink to 6.8 million, and by 2050 there will be just 5.81 million people.
Those who are left will be looking wrinkly as well. By 2050, the UN says, 38 percent of the Swiss population will be older than 60, compared with 21 percent in 2000.
Most of the main European countries are facing a similar demographic decline. Italy's population will drop 22 percent over the first half of this century and Germany's will fall 4 percent.
The Swiss are just getting there ahead of everyone else.
Trade Surplus
Switzerland has high savings, big trade surpluses, a lack of domestic investments, and an unreformed economy.
Take trade, for example. In October alone, the Swiss economy ran a surplus of 1.29 billion Swiss francs, and for the first 10 months of this year the total was more than 6 billion francs.
That's not just because the world wants a lot of watches and chocolate bars. It is because old and rich people save so much. Capital is continually exported to more dynamic countries.
The old and the rich are not much given to radical change. Why should they be? They have much to lose, and not much to gain. Anyone can see that Switzerland would benefit from a tough program of economic liberalization: Its economy is restricted and protected. But when you are that rich already, why bother?
And much of Europe also needs economic change, but nobody can quite summon the willpower to make it happen. Why not? Because they are too comfortable as well.
Anyone who thinks an economy can't cruise along quite happily while abandoning any prospect of growth needs to spend more time on the shores of Lake Zurich. They have unlocked the secret of economic tranquility. It's not very interesting, but it appears to work -- and it may well be the future for much of Europe.
Last Updated: November 26, 2003 03:31 EST
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