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Mix-Ansicht- Warm Wishes von Pamela & Mary Anne......................................... - Emerald, 04.12.2003, 06:46
Warm Wishes von Pamela & Mary Anne.........................................
-->Gold rose above $400 this week, closing at yet another high today. The C rise has fully expressed itself in both time and price, which means the bull market is heating up for further advances next year. For now, the C rise is at or near maturity but since the dollar is weak, it could last longer and it'll remain underway as long as gold stays above $385. It's especially strong above $393.
Gold & silver shares have been soaring, far outpacing gold. They are, however, overbought and the strongest are extremely overbought. Keep an eye on XAU and HUI; they are super strong above 103 and 230, respectively, but even if they decline to 98 and 215, the rise since May will remain underway. We recommend riding through upcoming weakness but if you want to take some profits, sell if 103 XAU and/or 230 HUI are broken. Silver, platinum, copper and the CRB commodity index also reached new highs and they're strong above $5.25, $740, $.89 and 248, respectively. Oil is showing strength above $30.
The U.S. dollar index reached yet another bear market low today and it's weak basis December below 93, and very weak below 91.50. The euro, Australian and New Zealand dollars, the British Pound and the ICPHX fund are at new bull market highs. They're very strong and poised to rise further above: 1.1750 euro,.7130 Aussie,.6290 Kiwi and 1.69 British pound. The Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and yen are near the highs and are strong above.7600,.7550 and.9100, respectively. Buy and keep your positions.
The stock market's almost nine month rise remains underway. The Dow, Nasdaq, NYSE, S&P, Russell 2000 and Amex reached new highs on Monday and the Dow could possibly rise to near 10000. But it still looks like the rise is maturing, the market is overbought and some indices like Trans and Utilities haven't reached a new high since early November. It's best to keep an eye on the 15 week moving average (MA) because it's worked best in identifying the almost nine month rise. It'll remain in process above this MA, but if the indexes close and stay below it, the rise is over. The MAs are now at: 9620 on the Dow, 2840 on the Trans and 1032 on the S&P 500. If you have DIA,QQQ or SPY, keep them unless your 4% trailing stop is broken.
Our world equity market funds are doing well. LDF, USCOX and IIF are at new highs while SAF and GCH are on the rise. Keep them unless your 4% trailing stop is broken.
U.S. bond prices declined this week as they continue to form a major top. If T-Bonds basis December stay above 106, they still have a chance to rise further within the top formation. Keep in mind, once the top is formed the next trend direction will be down. If you didn't sell two weeks ago, you may still have a good chance to sell.
Warm wishes and until next week,
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden
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