Goldenes Zinszeitalter?!?!

verfasst von Bob, 06.12.2003, 11:30

-->Die Makrodaten sind das eine, wenn die so bleiben wie sie sind, bleiben auch die Zinsen unten oder fallen sogar noch weiter!

Wer aber jetzt ein paar gute (=innovative) Firmen an der Hand hat, der kann - unter den gegebenen Umständen - prosperieren ohne Ende.

Die nunmehr statischen Kreislauf-Firmen sind natürlich zu meiden.

>>
Bond Yields Post Biggest Drop Since 9/11
Fri Dec 5, 5:41 PM ET Add Business - Reuters to My Yahoo!


By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields on Friday posted their largest one-day drop since Sept. 11, 2001, as unimpressive November jobs figures suggested the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) has plenty of room to keep interest rates at 45-year lows.

At the height of a blistering rally in prices, two-year note yields fell as much as 20 basis points to 1.84 percent. Five- and ten-year yields registered their sharpest single-day decline since the Fed began its streak of interest rate cuts at the start of 2001.

The meager payroll gains of 57,000, well below forecasts for a rise of 150,000, indicated a recent surge in economic growth has so far not been accompanied by a sizable increase in hiring.

October's rise was revised up to 137,000 but that was balanced by a downward revision to September.

The U.S. unemployment rate did dip to 5.9 percent from 6.0 with the household survey actually showing a huge 589,000 gain in employment, but analysts tend to favor the payrolls survey as a more accurate gauge of the nation's employment outlook.

All of which left the benchmark 10-year note 1-2/32 higher in price for a yield of 4.23 percent from 4.37 percent on Thursday, after swooping as low as 4.18 percent.

"It drives the point home that the strong economic growth we're seeing is not accompanied by any respectable employment growth," said Anthony Karydakis, senior financial economist at Banc One Capital Markets.

"The implication is that the Fed is indeed going to be very patient before they consider tightening. In all likelihood the Fed will keep most of the key points of the statement intact and they will not consider tightening policy until the middle of next year," he added.

The Fed board meets next Tuesday and, while no one expects a change in interest rates, there has been speculation the Fed would drop or revise its commitment to keeping monetary policy accommodative for"a considerable period."

Traders noted Eurodollars had already been higher before the jobs numbers because Fed watcher John Berry in the Washington Post had suggested it was unlikely the central bank would drop the"considerable period" phrase.

Hopes for a steady Fed helped the two-year note climb 10/32 in price, taking its yield down to 1.87 percent from 2.04 percent late on Thursday.

The five-year note rose 26/32 for a yield of 3.21 percent, down from 3.39 percent. The 30-year bond soared 1-16/32, flicking its yield down to 5.07 percent from 5.16 percent.

Fed fund futures rallied, cutting the odds of a quarter percentage point hike in the funds rate by March to around one in four. The market is still betting on the 1.0 percent funds rate rising by June.

Analysts said there was good news for inflation in the payrolls figures with average hourly earnings rising just 0.1 percent in November.

"This report will continue to allow the Fed to remain patient about raising interest rates," said Tom Girard, senior portfolio manager at Weiss, Peck & Greer.

Traders noted demand from foreign central banks continued to support the Treasury market, much as it has done all year.

Figures from the Fed late Thursday showed it was holding $835.14 billion in Treasuries for foreign central banks, up $13.03 billion in just the last week.

In the year so far, those holdings of Treasuries have ballooned by $150 billion as some central banks bought dollars to restrain export-damaging gains in their own currencies. <<

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gesamter Thread:

• Goldenes Zinszeitalter?!?! - Bob, 06.12.2003, 11:30
  • Ein Beweis mehr für die zunehmend erlahmende Innovationskraft. Erschöpfung? - sensortimecom, 06.12.2003, 12:02
    • Re: Es kommen zweifellos nur Nischen in Betracht - Bob, 06.12.2003, 12:14
      • eine davon - das Gesundheitswesen - chiron, 06.12.2003, 13:47
        • Re: eine davon - das Gesundheitswesen - Karl52, 06.12.2003, 14:00
          • Re: eine davon - das Gesundheitswesen - Bob, 06.12.2003, 14:06
            • Re: eine davon - das Gesundheitswesen - Karl52, 06.12.2003, 15:02
        • Re: eine davon - das Gesundheitswesen - sensortimecom, 06.12.2003, 18:32