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Mix-Ansicht- Südafrik. Notenbank senkt nur 0,50 % erwartet wurden 1.00% - Emerald, 11.12.2003, 20:53
- Danke:) (owT) - BillyGoatGruff, 11.12.2003, 21:13
Südafrik. Notenbank senkt nur 0,50 % erwartet wurden 1.00%
-->f. Billi-Goat
und dies noch zum Ueberlegen:
quote:
Great day to buy SA?
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10/12/2003 14:28 - (SA)
Johannesburg - The SA Reserve Bank's (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has started its two-day meeting on Wednesday with increasing concern by exporters about the strength of the rand, which moved to its best level since January 2000 when it touched R6.09/US$ on December 3.
The rand was last trading at R6.42/$ compared with levels above R8/$ when the MPC first started cutting interest rates in June this year. It followed up a June cut - the first since September 2001 - with further cuts in August, September and October.
Despite a total of 500 basis points worth of cuts since June 12, the trade-weighted rand strengthened by 24% between June 12 and December 4.
In a replay of expectations for the June and October MPC meetings, most economists expect a 100 basis points cut, but equally, many are hoping for more when the MPC makes its decision known on Thursday. In both June and October, the SARB cut by 150 basis points.
The forward interest rate market has priced in a 130 basis points cut after South Africa had its second consecutive month of y/y producer deflation in October, while consumer inflation was only 1.5% y/y.
The SARB's inflation target measure CPIX, which is headline consumer inflation excluding the effects of mortgage rates, eased to 4.4% y/y in October from 5.4% y/y in September and a peak of 11.3% y/y in October 2002. The target range is from 3% y/y to 6% y/y and many economists now believe given the strength of the rand that there is greater probability that CPIX will fall below the bottom of the range rather than exceed the top of the range.
Before the June 2003 cut, the MPC last cut in September 2001, when the monthly average exchange rate was R8.6359/$. The MPC move then meant that the prime rate dropped to 13%, but four interest rate hikes last year saw the prime rate at 17% for the first half of this year.
The 400 basis points increase in 2002 was in response to the collapse of the rand from R9.79/$ on November 29, 2001, to R13.86 on December 20, 2001.
The rand then reversed course and was the best performing currency against the dollar in 2002 and in the first 11 months of 2003. The rand reached a best level so far this year of R6.09 on December 3, its best level since January 2000. The last time it was below R6/$ was in October 1999.
SARB governor Tito Mboweni said it was significant that the rand strengthened after the June 2003 rate cut, as the rand was trading at R8.0650 on June 12 prior to the rate cut announcement.
The MPC meeting began this morning and ends on Thursday, as both the domestic and international environments are discussed after presentations by specialists.
These presentations are repeated to the media and then at 15:00 local time on Thursday, SARB governor Tito Mboweni reads out the MPC statement live on SABC television, so that all market participants can receive the information at the same time.
unquote.
Emerald.
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