auch anderswo sind die Auguren eher unschlüssig: So What!

verfasst von Emerald, 19.12.2003, 09:04

-->quote:

John Hussman

Excerpt from 15th Dec

Market Climate

As of last week, the Market Climate for stocks remained characterized by unusually unfavorable valuations and still moderately favorable market action. This combination holds us to a constructive investment position, with only about half of our holdings hedged against the impact of market fluctuations. While I am hopeful that the capture of Saddam Hussein will relieve some of the risks to our troops, with accompanying relief for the market, it's not clear that geopolitical risks have shifted overall, so the durability of any market advance on this news is unclear.

Most of the negatives we observe here are fundamental in nature, the most important being valuations, but extending to the massive U.S. current account deficit and the potential for credit market and inflation difficulties when short-term interest rates begin to normalize (as I've noted before, rising short-term interest rates tend to raise “monetary velocity,” triggering the inflationary impact of prior monetary ease). These fundamentals set the stage for future difficulties, but there is no telling at what point those difficulties will actually be expressed. Still, it is an overly optimistic “greater fool theory” to believe that any analytical tools, including our own measures of market action, are reliable enough to completely ignore these fundamentals without any defense at all, and simply “get out at the top.” Frankly, I don't think it's possible to identify tops or bottoms that way. It is precisely because we understand our capabilities that we are already half-hedged, despite the fact that our me
asures of market action remain generally favorable.

In the bond market, the Market Climate remained characterized by both unfavorable valuations and unfavorable market action. Except for moderate positions in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, we are no longer holding positions in long-term Treasury bonds, and the duration of the Strategic Total Return Fund is down to less than two years.

unquote

Es gibt Zeiten, und in einer solchen befinden wir uns gerade jetzt, da sind
Entscheidungen pro und/oder contra so schizophren wie nur etwas: hin - und
hergerissen.

Und wenn man nichts zu sagen hat, dann schweigt man besser.

Ich wünsche Dir einen schönen Options-Verfall und ein Week-End full of
sunshine.

Emerald.

Thread gesperrt

 

gesamter Thread:

• Na, keiner mehr"ABWÄRTS" investiert? - Verdächtig wenige Postings in Richtung - x Thomas, 19.12.2003, 08:51
  • auch anderswo sind die Auguren eher unschlüssig: So What! - Emerald, 19.12.2003, 09:04
  • Ich oute mich ;-) - Laui, 19.12.2003, 09:05
    • Re: Ich oute mich ;-) - BillyGoatGruff, 19.12.2003, 09:32
      • Heuer wohl nicht mehr, aber der Jänner ist brandgefährlich für Shorts, weil... - Helmut, 19.12.2003, 10:04
        • Und wenn es so kommt, dann soll es halt so sein! - Laui, 20.12.2003, 10:20
          • Ich hoffe mal, du... - Helmut, 21.12.2003, 11:36
  • Re: Na, keiner mehr"ABWÄRTS" investiert? kaufe nach jederRally ein NAS PUTS (owT) - CRASH_GURU, 19.12.2003, 09:23
  • Wieso short - Bärentöter, 19.12.2003, 13:52