Investor Optimism Continues to Surge Upward

verfasst von Cosa, 23.12.2003, 10:33

-->Hi,

eine gestern veröffentlichte Gallup-Umfrage

POLL ANALYSES
December 22, 2003

Investor Optimism Continues to Surge Upward
Despite investor concerns about the mutual fund debacle

by Dennis Jacobe

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

Investor optimism surged upward for the third month in a row during December, according to the Index of Investor Optimism -- a joint effort of UBS and The Gallup Organization. The overall Index and its Economic Dimension are now at their highest levels since March 2002. In fact, investor optimism has increased so much during the past few months that it is now just about where it was three years ago, in December 2000.

This latest surge in investor optimism tends to refute the suggestion that consumer optimism declined during the first half of December. It also adds further confirmation to last week's Gallup Poll finding that consumer confidence has actually increased this month.

But even as investor optimism reached a 21-month high, investors also expressed concern about the growing mutual fund problem: A majority of investors say they are concerned about the scandal; a sizable minority say the scandal makes them less likely to invest in mutual funds; and, while most investors don't plan to shift their assets in response to the problem, most say they would move their money out of a mutual fund that admits to wrongdoing.

Investor Optimism Continues to Increase

The Index of Investor Optimism increased 11 points in December, on top of its 24-point increase in November and its 15-point increase in October. The overall Index now stands at 104 -- up 50 points since September. This puts the Index at its highest level in 21 months (it was at 121 in March 2002). Investor optimism is now at essentially the same level as that of December 2000, when it stood at 106.

The Personal Dimension actually declined four points in December, and now stands at 63. With the exception of last month, the December reading is this dimension's highest level since May 2002, when it stood at 67. While the Personal Dimension is substantially higher now than it was in December of last year (50), it is also substantially below where it was two years ago (76).

The decline in the Personal Dimension was more than offset by the increase in the Economic Dimension. The latter increased for the third consecutive month, rising 15 points in December on top of a 14-point increase in November and a 10-point increase in October. The Economic Dimension is now at 41 -- up 39 points since September, when investors were far less optimistic about the economic outlook and when the Economic Dimension was essentially neutral, with a reading of 2.

Index of Investor Optimism — U.S.

December 2003

The Impact Could Be Significant

Further, one in three investors say the mutual fund problems make them less likely to invest in mutual funds. This suggests that there could be some movement of investor funds into bank deposits in the months ahead, particularly if the scandal continues to grow.

Does this problem with mutual funds make you less likely to invest in mutual funds, or does it not affect your decision one way or the other?

December 2003

Growing Investor and Consumer Optimism

Earlier this month, it was reported that the preliminary findings of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed consumer sentiment declining during the first half of December. Since then, there have been reports that some retailers have seen their sales come in at the low end of their forecast range for the holidays. Others have provided a variety of anecdotal evidence that holiday sales are not as good as many had hoped, even taking the bad weather in some parts of the country into account.

In the face of these negative signs, Gallup reported last week that its Dec. 11-14 poll showed consumer optimism continuing to increase this month. Consumer ratings of the current economy are at their highest level since June 2002. Consumer expectations for the future of the economy are at their most optimistic since August 2000.

The results of the Index of Investor Optimism survey tend to support Gallup's previous finding that consumer confidence is continuing to increase in December. They also tend to further confirm the finding that upper-income consumers are much more optimistic right now than their lower-income counterparts.

For example, in terms of wealth, consumers who qualify as investors (those having $10,000 or more of investable assets) represent roughly the top 40% of the U.S. population. But even among investors, the wealthier"substantial investors" (those having $100,000 or more of investable assets) are much more optimistic, with an Index of 124, than are their less wealthy"average investor" counterparts, who have an Index of 92 in December.

In this context, it is reasonable to expect that while all retailers are likely to have a good holiday season, upscale retailers are most likely to see the best sales. And, if this economic recovery continues to be one involving little or no real job growth, then this trend is likely to continue well into next year.

Quelle: gallup.com

die kommenden ICI-Daten dürften da interessant sein, bisher ist insbesondere in die Aktienfonds dieses Jahr ja reichlich Geld geflossen.

Gruss
Cosa

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gesamter Thread:

• Investor Optimism Continues to Surge Upward - Cosa, 23.12.2003, 10:33
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