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Mix-Ansicht- Scottish wisdom aus dem 'Barron's' (Schottische Weisheiten) - Emerald, 28.12.2003, 11:09
- Aha, noch einer, der sieht dass Geldmengenmass in USA obsolet ist... - kingsolomon, 28.12.2003, 11:27
Scottish wisdom aus dem 'Barron's' (Schottische Weisheiten)
-->IMO the interview with Hugh Hendry, a Scottish hedge fund manager, in this week's Barrons is a must read. Some excerpts:
"The response to the crash since March 2000 has been to create more money. Just as it was 300 years ago. We've created a tidal wave of liquidity, with the Dow back at 10,000. But in doing so, strange things have happened. Gold has broken its 25-year downtrend. The CRB index is at a nine-year high. Oil prices didn't come down after the Iraq war concluded. Strange things are going on in the world at large. But not strange to a citizen of Paris in 1720."
"This is a bear market rally. They have never lasted more than 12 or 13 months in any asset class. This market bottomed on the ninth of October last year, so we're in that...period.... If it rolls over, if all the bears re-converted back into bulls, concluding its a natural cycle, then this market will test last year's lows. If those are breached, then I believe you could lose 80% of the value of the S&P and the Dow from their peaks."
"But in a deflatinary scenario...you really want to be in gold. Gold's got nothing to do with mining. Gold works both ways. If we have the deflation scernario, it will be hoarded, on monetary demand rather than on economic demand. Gold is simple. You just buy somethin big, say Newmont Mining. It looks like technology company if you look at the valuations--six times revenue, which ery high. But its predicated on the option valuation of its exposure to gold. Barrick Gold and Placer Dome are also picks, You buy Newmont at six times revenue because there is a possibility that gold may return to its previous high of $850 an ounce...It's more than possible. It's broken its 25-year downtrend."
"Whereas [Japan' central bankers] have made a $150 billion worth of yen this year. They've done the same in Hong Kong, and Fannie Mae and Fredie Mac are growing their balance sheets of $3 trillionat a 50%rate. That's why the Euro could go to $1.80. The pound sterling could hit $2.20 in 18 months. In that world gold takes care of itself."
"A period which is very similar to today, where central banks of the world were intervening by creating money was l984 to 1987...Over that period Newmont went from$13 to $80. Newmont again bottomed at $13 in 1997. We are at $48. And I can see it being back at $80."
Emerald meint: Think about! Newmont ist die Nummer I und scheint die
Konsolidierung schon abgeschlossen zu haben! ABX und PDG nicht übersehen.
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