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Mix-Ansicht- Das wussten wir doch? The Aden's - Emerald, 15.01.2004, 06:21
- Re: Das wussten wir doch? The Aden's - CRASH_GURU, 15.01.2004, 07:53
Das wussten wir doch? The Aden's
--> Today's gold decline is not enough to say a D decline has begun, but it sure looks like the C peak occurred last Friday. Gold, silver, platinum and silver shares are overbought while gold shares have been leading the way down. Plus, the dollar is oversold and it's likely soon headed higher. Once gold closes and stays below $412, a D decline will begin. Gold could then decline to $400. This would be a moderate decline. Below $400, a sharper decline could take gold to possibly $370-$390 and it could take a couple of months to develop. Silver reached a high on Monday and it's exceptionally strong above $6.20. But a decline to $6 or even $5.60 would be normal. Platinum reached another high on Tuesday. It's super strong above $820 but a decline to $790 would still show great strength. Even palladium is starting to turn bullish above $215, but since the D decline is at hand, it could go to its solid support at $190. North America Palladium (PDL.TO) is a good way to buy during weakness. Gold shares are declining. XAU and many gold shares broke below their 15 week moving averages today for the first time since May. Gold shares reached a temporary peak on December 2 and they've been topping or coming down since. If XAU now stays below 103, and HUI closes and stays below 226, the downward correction will be confirmed. HUI and XAU could then decline to possibly 200 and 94, respectively. If you sold some of your shares or want to, that's fine but keep your gold and silver and at least half of your shares. Riding through weakness is also okay and then buy new positions and/or add to your positions on weakness, but sell GoldCorp (GG).
Just as gold is poised to decline, the U.S. dollar is poised to rise while the currencies decline to work off their overbought situation. This is especially so considering the U.S. trade gap shrank and the ECB is changing their tone on euro strength. Today they hinted at intervention. The dollar index is very weak below 87, but a close above it means it could rise to 90 and it would still be very weak. A sharper rise could take it to 94.50 but the major trend would still be clearly down. If the Euro now closes below 1.2550, it could decline to 1.21 and still be strong. Likewise for the other currencies; a correction would be underway below.7500 for the Australian dollar, 1.79 British pound,.6625 New Zealand dollar and.7700 Canadian dollar. Keep your positions but if you want to take some profits now's still a good time to do it. If you already took some profits, wait for further weakness before buying.
The stock market's 10 month rise remains strong but there are signs of overheating and the Dow is starting to resist near our target level at 10600. This means, keep an eye on the key numbers. The 15 week moving average has worked the best in identifying this rise. And as long as the market stays above it, the rise will continue. If not, the rise is over. The 15 week moving averages are: 9950 for the Dow Industrials, 1950 for Nasdaq and 1065 for S&P. A hint of a turn would occur with the Dow below 10400. If you have DIA, QQQ, or SPY, sell if your 4% trailing stop is broken.
Bonds rose sharply this week and they're starting to break out of a four month sideways band. If T-Bonds basis March now stay above 111, they're strong and poised to rise further. But even if they do, this short-term strength will be part of a major top formation.
The world equity markets remain strong, especially Latin America and Asia. Of our recommended funds, IIF is at a new high while LDF, EWW, USCOX, GCH and SAF are at or near the highs. Keep these but also keep a 4% trailing stop on your position. We're adding TTF, EKZAX and GRR to our recommended list. Warm wishes and until next week, Pamela and Mary Anne Aden
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