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Mix-Ansicht- mining stocks - Be careful out there - off-shore-trader, 22.01.2004, 12:23
- Re: mining stocks - Die zweite Phase der Abwärtsbewegung steht noch bevor. - chiquito, 22.01.2004, 13:10
mining stocks - Be careful out there
-->I've been watching the mining stocks with some interest over the past few weeks. It's as if they'd read my interview: They're all rolling over! Let's look at the charts.
Newmont Mining (NEM:NYSE) formed a double top just after I chatted with Larry. (We spoke on Dec. 30, and my column was published the following week.) Since that time, Newmont has dropped below the support line and looks like a good short candidate. I'd consider putting a stop just above the middle Bollinger Band; I wouldn't want to be short if the stock moves higher than that.
Kinross Gold (KGC:NYSE) has been trading sideways for the better part of four months. But after trying to push higher in late November, the stock pulled back to prior support of $7.50 and recently broke through. This break seems fatal because the rest of the group is moving lower as well. Money flow reveals very committed sellers. There may be better shorts around, but I wouldn't want to be long this name.
Glamis Gold (GLG:NYSE) is trading in a $3 box. The secondary indicators are weakening, and I suspect that the stock will fail to tag $18 this time around. If so, the stock is shortable, but see how far the stock rallies first.
AngloGold (AU:NYSE) rallied 25% in November and has been working off that move ever since. By last week, the stock had completely retraced the entire gain. Now the question is how high the bounce will go. I suspect that AngloGold will have a hard time making it above $45, and I think the stock will look shortable at that level. Money flow and accumulation-distribution are very bearish, which serves to confirm the downward momentum in this stock. Simply put, it should continue to fall along with the rest of the sector.
Ashanti Gold (ASL:NYSE) topped out in early December and had just been marking time until last week. The stock finally fell away from the $13 level and traded clear down below $12. There's really no reason to be long this stock, although I'll surely get some hate mail from"gold bugs" telling me I'm wrong. I've been wrong before, and I'll be wrong again. Price, however, is the ultimate arbiter.
Be careful out there.
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Dan Fitzpatrick is a freelance writer and trading consultant who trades for his own account. His columns focus on quantitative strategies for trading and investing. Fitzpatrick is a member of the Market Technicians Association and manages The Stock Market Mentor, a Web site focusing on the proper use of technical analysis for trading and investing.
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