Re: dottore: Joe Granville - Ja, ab 1996/7 bullish für IBM, MO, INTEL, Boeing...

verfasst von dottore, 14.11.2000, 10:14

>"According to the Hulbert Financial Digest which tracks the performance of newsletter recommendations, most of the time investors would be better off shelling out the money to a personal phone psychic and asking her to predict the daily lottery numbers. If an investor had followed the recommendations of the Granville Market Letter for the past 10 years, he would have lost 96 percent of his investment money. How much did you want for those lottery numbers, Madame Phone Empress?"
>Wenn Ihnen die HulbertsStatistik, die Sie erwähnten, zugänglich ist, würde ich die gerne sehen.
>Gruss, M.

Muss mal schauen, wo ich die herkriege. Bei Hulbert war Granville häufig auf Platz 1, so dass ich mir das obige Zitat nicht recht erklären kann. Wo kommt es her?

Aber zunächst einmal dieses Interview, das unter dem Titel lief:

The Greatest Bull Market in History:

CNBC Squawkbox, December 2, 1996

Mark Haines: July 16th is official as far as Joe is concerned. His recent quote: this is not just any bull market, it is the greatest bull market in history.

Granville sagt also völlig korrekt:"This is the greatest bull market in history"!

Hat er sich in seiner Einschätzung geirrt? 1996/99 hat sich der Dow verdoppelt. Drei Jahre und"double your money" - na wenn das nicht the greatest bull market in history ist

>Since Joe's July
buy signal the Dow is up 1400 points and his most recent call is the Dow 7000 to 7500 next year.

Auch vor dem Interview hat schon Mal keiner bei Joe Geld verloren - oder?

>Joining us now to explain all of this as only he can, Joe Granville editor
of the Granville Market Letter. Good morning Joe, delighted to see you again.
Joe Granville: Good morning Mark, it's been a long time. The last time I talked with you was on August 5th and the Dow was 5674 so we've come a long way since
the last time we talked.

Also Joe bullish across the board.

MH: Yes indeed we have and we are gonna go further in your opinion, but why, what do you see going on in this market?
JG: Well first of all, why did I turn bullish last July? Well we had a classical selling climax. That is one thing we never avoid, I never missed one. And what is a classical
selling climax? It's one where the market goes down on huge volume and reverses and closes up. We did that, we were down a 167 points that morning and we closed up
9 points and we did that on all time record high volume. The market has never seen higher volume since that day.

So sieht es ein"Techniker" seines Schlages. Also lag er richtig.

MH: So that kind of resets the clock in your thinking, right?
JG: That starts the new leg and what we had... told people immediatly to do, forget everything that happened prior to July 16th, because now it is totally irrelevant. This
is the new leg and you'll notice that everything we've done since July 16th has been fully and technically confirmed.

Genau Mitte 1996 begann der Dow mit seinem nächsten Bein zu rasen, von 5500 auf 9500 Punkte (1998). Vorbei sogar an Greenspans"exuberance"-Warnung.

Was hat Joe falsch gemacht?

MH: Allright. Small cap growth, small cap value, small what?
JG: Just small cap. In other words, I look for low price stocks, this is where my market letter features portfolios of low price stocks which look outstanding now and
look much much higher and you'll notice if you go through the chartbook that most of the stocks I am recommending now made their tops in 1992, not 93, 94, 95, 96.
They made their tops in 92 and have been bottoming and it shows bottom formations that were breaking out of it and look so impressive to a technician.

Die Titel, die er empfiehlt hatten also ausgebottomed und zooom ging's ab.

MH: So you're bargain hunting, you're bottom fishing? You are looking for value?
JG: They have already seen their bottom so we are not fishing we are pulling in some large ones already.

We are pulling... Also eindeutig auf Hausse gestimmt, nota bene ab Mitte 1996.

MH: Allright. On your list is one that I had never heard of and I wonder if you could tell us about it, Ducommon, DCO is the symbol. Who are they, why do you like
them?
JG: Well you should never ask to a technician who are they, what they do, because I don't care what they do.
MH: Why do you like them?
JG: Because of a long flat base, high volume break-out.

Für einen Techniker seines Schlages eindeutig: I like them.

MH: Also on your list though are some things that could not possibly be discribed as in the bargain basement, IBM.
JG: Okay, in my market letter since we have well known stocks like IBM and Philip Morris and Intel and so forth, I have a section in every issue called technical
quickies and these are mostly stocks that are much higher price-wise and they are well known widely held and since so many have followed them I felt it useful to have
technical opinions on those always available in my letters. So therefore you not only see the low price stocks but you'll see opinions every week on Intel and IBM and
Philip Morris and Boeing and so forth every week.

Er empfiehlt also die absoluten Granaten der kommenden Mega-Hausse: IBM, MO, INTEL, Boeing.

Was hat er falsch gemacht? Diese stocks haben sich in den folgenden vier Jahren vervielfacht.

JG: Let me give a brief example. Intel, everyone loves Intel. I love Intel. Intel is going much
much higher from here

"Much higher from here". Ist Intel denn seit 1996 gefallen? Nein es hat sich verzigfacht. Und Joe sagt deutlich:

I LOVE INTEL.

JG: Whatch out you said Philip Morris. A guy who gave up smoking 8 years ago and hates tobacco, you'd better believe I hate tobacco. Today I wouldn't
be alive if I kept smoking, but I love Philip Morris. You know why? Because I'm a technician and I don't give a damn what the name of the stock is if I like the chart.
And I love the chart of Philip Morris.

Ist MO seitdem gefallen? Nein Joe sagt:"I love Philip Morris" und den Rest zeigt jedes Chartbuch - ein Mega-Profit!

MH: Okay Joe, thanks a lot, always a delight to talk to you. Stay healthly. We've been speaking with Joe Granville, editor of the Granville Market Letter, joining us
from Kansas City, Missouri.

Ja, dort lebt und webt er.

Und jetzt ist er also dummerweise bearish.

Sollen wir rüber fahren und ihn im Missouri ertränken?

Gruß

d.



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gesamter Thread:

• dottore: Joe Granville - BF, 14.11.2000, 09:15
  • Re: dottore: Joe Granville - Ja, ab 1996/7 bullish für IBM, MO, INTEL, Boeing... - dottore, 14.11.2000, 10:14
    • Nein, ich bin nicht dafür den Mann zu ertränken. - BF, 14.11.2000, 10:38
      • Re: Nein, ich bin nicht dafür den Mann zu ertränken. - dottore, 14.11.2000, 10:46
        • Ich habe meinen Punkt klargemacht - BF, 14.11.2000, 11:03
    • Nein, ich bin nicht dafür den Mann zu ertränken. - BF, 14.11.2000, 10:39