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Mix-Ansicht- da ist noch was von gestern (5.2.) - Emerald, 06.02.2004, 04:52
- und auch von vorgestern... - YooBee, 06.02.2004, 09:38
da ist noch was von gestern (5.2.)
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Despite gold's $16 drop last Friday, it's been holding near the $400 level. This is good, indicating the D decline has been moderate so far, but it's not over yet. Gold is vulnerable below $410 and if it declines and stays below $398.50, it could continue down to $385 as its next target but it would still be firm. A steeper decline could take gold to possibly the $365 area. Silver is now also vulnerable to a steeper decline below $6.20 with its next downside support at $5.70. The HUI gold share index hit a new 12 week low today and it could be leading the way down for the metals. The HUI and XAU will remain under downward pressure below 230 and 102.50, respectively. On the other hand, copper is soaring and palladium looks good but if the other metals fall further, these likely will too. Keep your positions. Since many of the gold shares are oversold, you may want to start averaging in with a small portion on new gold and silver share positions.
The stock market is showing the first sign trouble could be brewing and we're watching the market closely. The Dow Transportations fell sharply and it's now broken clearly below its 15-week moving average for the first time since the current rise began last March. And even though the other stock indices remain above their moving averages, the Transports could be leading the way for the others, considering the markets are overbought. The 15 week averages have been the best in identifying this nearly one year rise and if the indices decline below the following levels, the rise will be over and a steeper decline would be underway: 10125 for the Dow Industrials, 1990 for Nasdaq and 1080 for S&P 500. The Transports are now poised to fall further by staying below 2950. If you have DIA and SPY be especially cautious and quick to sell if your 4% trailing stop is broken. Sell QQQ.
Most of the world stock markets fell this week and since they're also overbought, they're now vulnerable to a further decline. Our stops were broken on most of the funds we've been recommending and we now advise selling the foreign funds if you're holding them and/or haven't sold yet. These are: EWW, EKZAX, LDF, USCOX, SAF and GRR.
The poison discovery in the Senate building sent the U.S. dollar down yesterday. But it still looks like the dollar's forming a temporary bottom, especially if the dollar index stays above 86.50. If it does, it could rise to near 89.50 but it would still remain weak. A rise above that level could take the index to near 93, but the dollar would remain bearish. Even though the Japanese yen remains strong, the other currencies appear to be forming a temporary top and the Canadian dollar has been leading the way down. But if the currencies decline to the following levels, they'd still be strong: 1.22 euro, 1.76 British pound,.7800 Swiss franc,.6500 New Zealand dollar and.7400 Australian dollar. Don't buy new positions yet.
Bond prices rose moderately this week but it still looks like they're forming a major top. Bonds will remain bearish with the 10 and 30 year yields above 4% and 4.90%, respectively. If you have DSU, sell.
The February issue will be e-mailed and faxed on Monday February 9th. Warm wishes and until next week, Pamela and Mary Anne Aden
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