Dazu noch mal das Posting vom 30.01.04...

verfasst von RK, 10.02.2004, 19:00

-->Die Federal Reserve greift mal wieder hemmungslos in die statistische Trickkiste!


Die Amis greifen mal wieder in die statistische Trickkiste. Weil es politisch opportun scheint, ändert man von einfach kurzerhand die Darstellung der Geldmengenentwicklung, so als ob die bisherige Darstellung völliger Schrott gewesen sei, was ja so oder so einem äußerst interessanten Eingeständis gleichkommt.
Um den auf den Finanzmärkten zunehmend katastrophalen Eindruck (einer akut drohenden deflationären Depression) zu verwischen, dass die US-Geldmengen trotz einer Politik der ultra-lockeren Hand bereits seit einigen Monaten deutlich kontrahieren, hat man die saisonale Adjustierung neu gestaltet.
Vor einer Woche (22.01.04) hat man die angepasste Geldmenge M3 für Dezember 2003 mit 8806,9 Milliarden US-Dollars angegeben.
Gestern am 29.01.2004 hat man nun die angepasste Geldmenge M3 für Dezember 2003 mit 8830,4 Milliarden US-Dollars angegeben.
Damit schrumpfte sie angeblich nicht mehr um 6,6% in den letzten drei Monaten bis Ende 2003, sondern nur um vermeintlich harmlosere 3,7%.
RK



http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/


Release Date: January 29, 2004
Release dates | Historical data | About
Current release Other formats: Screen reader | ASCII | PDF (83 KB)




January 29, 2004

H.6 (508)

MONEY STOCK REVISIONS



Measures of the money stock and components have been revised to incorporate the
results of the annual seasonal factor review. This release includes revised monthly and weekly
seasonal factors, as well as comparisons of the revised monetary aggregates with previously
published data.

Seasonally adjusted measures of the monetary aggregates and components incorporate
revised seasonal factors, which were derived from data through December 2003. Monthly
seasonal factors were estimated using the X-12-ARIMA procedure. The revisions to seasonal
factors raised M2 and M3 growth rates in the first and fourth quarters of 2003, while lowering
them in the other quarters of the year.

Historical data, updated each week, are available through the Federal Reserve's web site
(http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/) with the H.6 statistical release. The data are also
available through paid electronic means, which can be accessed by calling STAT-USA at 1-800-
782-8872 or 202-482-1986.
1




FEDERAL RESERVE STATISTICAL RELEASE

H.6 (508)
Table 1 These data are scheduled for release each Thursday at 4:30 p.m.
January 29, 2004
MONEY STOCK MEASURES
Billions of dollars
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date M11 M22 M33
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2002-Jan. 1182.7 5477.8 8032.7
Feb. 1184.6 5507.9 8077.1
Mar. 1188.4 5519.1 8096.9
Apr. 1177.5 5525.2 8118.9
May 1182.0 5556.1 8154.9
June 1186.3 5578.2 8166.1
July 1192.6 5620.7 8207.9
Aug. 1181.1 5656.0 8270.8
Sep. 1188.7 5682.7 8307.0
Oct. 1200.0 5728.6 8334.7
Nov. 1202.6 5775.1 8466.4
Dec. 1215.0 5803.8 8539.5

2003-Jan. 1218.3 5836.2 8552.2
Feb. 1232.7 5879.0 8589.9
Mar. 1238.2 5904.5 8621.1
Apr. 1243.3 5947.7 8657.6
May 1255.2 5996.1 8712.0
June 1268.5 6033.1 8758.9
July 1273.4 6078.2 8887.3
Aug. 1282.1 6117.7 8923.4
Sep. 1282.9 6097.5 8912.0
Oct. 1284.3 6079.1 8876.6
Nov. 1283.6 6071.3 8855.6
Dec. 1292.6 6062.3 8830.4

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Not seasonally adjusted
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2002-Jan. 1185.2 5476.4 8059.8
Feb. 1171.2 5494.5 8102.1
Mar. 1188.7 5543.3 8148.5
Apr. 1187.9 5557.1 8143.7
May 1177.5 5525.8 8130.5
June 1186.5 5564.0 8154.4
July 1193.4 5606.9 8173.9
Aug. 1176.6 5651.2 8242.2
Sep. 1181.3 5677.1 8260.4
Oct. 1192.4 5716.4 8290.1
Nov. 1200.8 5791.9 8485.8
Dec. 1240.3 5842.2 8603.5

2003-Jan. 1219.9 5830.6 8570.1
Feb. 1219.2 5857.0 8603.0
Mar. 1238.2 5919.5 8661.3
Apr. 1253.0 5976.7 8679.5
May 1251.3 5964.0 8687.4
June 1269.0 6016.4 8749.2
July 1274.3 6065.4 8858.1
Aug. 1279.6 6122.8 8906.3
Sep. 1275.6 6096.9 8874.6
Oct. 1276.2 6073.6 8843.1
Nov. 1281.0 6092.5 8879.1
Dec. 1318.2 6102.5 8888.5

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Footnotes appear on the following page

p -- indicates preliminary data
1


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Release Date: January 22, 2004
Release dates | Historical data | About
Current release Other formats: Screen reader | ASCII | PDF (33 KB)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FEDERAL RESERVE STATISTICAL RELEASE

H.6 (508)
Table 1 These data are scheduled for release each Thursday at 4:30 p.m.
January 22, 2004
MONEY STOCK MEASURES
Billions of dollars
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date M11 M22 M33
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2002-Jan. 1179.0 5469.1 8017.9
Feb. 1185.2 5507.4 8069.6
Mar. 1187.1 5508.3 8082.8
Apr. 1172.6 5494.8 8085.0
May 1183.3 5557.5 8152.4
June 1188.9 5587.7 8180.9
July 1195.7 5635.5 8227.1
Aug. 1184.5 5673.4 8293.7
Sep. 1191.3 5699.1 8335.3
Oct. 1202.6 5737.0 8346.9
Nov. 1202.2 5777.3 8470.0
Dec. 1210.4 5792.9 8525.9

2003-Jan. 1212.8 5821.8 8526.0
Feb. 1233.4 5875.0 8572.9
Mar. 1236.7 5887.1 8599.4
Apr. 1236.9 5910.0 8617.6
May 1257.8 5998.6 8711.7
June 1271.9 6047.5 8780.2
July 1277.8 6099.5 8916.9
Aug. 1285.8 6143.6 8956.5
Sep. 1288.1 6122.4 8953.7
Oct. 1286.9 6092.1 8896.0
Nov. 1281.8 6071.5 8856.1
Dec. p 1287.1 6044.6 8806.9

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Not seasonally adjusted
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2002-Jan. 1185.2 5476.4 8059.8
Feb. 1171.2 5494.5 8102.1
Mar. 1188.7 5543.3 8148.5
Apr. 1187.9 5557.1 8143.7
May 1177.5 5525.8 8130.5
June 1186.5 5564.0 8154.4
July 1193.4 5606.9 8173.9
Aug. 1176.6 5651.2 8242.2
Sep. 1181.3 5677.1 8260.4
Oct. 1192.4 5716.4 8290.1
Nov. 1200.8 5791.9 8485.8
Dec. 1240.3 5842.2 8603.5

2003-Jan. 1219.9 5830.6 8570.1
Feb. 1219.2 5857.0 8603.0
Mar. 1238.2 5919.5 8661.3
Apr. 1253.0 5976.7 8679.5
May 1251.3 5964.0 8687.4
June 1269.0 6016.4 8749.2
July 1274.3 6065.4 8858.1
Aug. 1279.6 6122.8 8906.3
Sep. 1275.6 6096.8 8874.6
Oct. 1276.2 6073.6 8843.1
Nov. 1281.0 6092.5 8879.1
Dec. p 1318.3 6102.6 8888.7

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Footnotes appear on the following page

p -- indicates preliminary data
1

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gesamter Thread:

• US-Geldmenge schrumpft MZM, M2 M3 - Popeye, 10.02.2004, 18:53
  • Dazu noch mal das Posting vom 30.01.04... - RK, 10.02.2004, 19:00
    • Das Rätsel des"p"... - fridolin, 10.02.2004, 20:45
      • Und Dir ist bekannt, daß die p.-Arbeitsmarkdaten regelmäßig nach einigen Wochen - RK, 10.02.2004, 21:36
        • Re: Und Dir ist bekannt, daß die p.-Arbeitsmarkdaten regelmäßig nach einigen Wochen - fridolin, 10.02.2004, 21:58
          • Re: Und Dir ist bekannt, daß die p.-Arbeitsmarkdaten regelmäßig nach einigen Wochen - RK, 10.02.2004, 22:18
  • Re: US-Geldmenge schrumpft MZM, M2..... Jein - CRASH_GURU, 10.02.2004, 22:33