Wiederkehr der Goldvorwärtsverkäufe möglich.

verfasst von BRATMAUS, 18.02.2004, 17:11

-->Gold hedging renaissance possible

By: Ken Gooding

Posted: 2004/02/17 Di 18:00 EST | © Mineweb 1997-2004


LONDON -- De-hedging by gold producers is slowing dramatically. Last year the number of ounces hedged fell by 12.9m, or just over 400 tonnes, to 70m. That compares with a drop of 14.1m ounces in 2002. This year de-hedging is forecast to be about 10m ounces.
The forecast comes in The Hedge Book produced by the Virtual Metals and Haliburton Mineral Services independent commodities research consultancies.

It is not possible to analyse how big a contribution de-hedging made to the bounce back in the US dollar price of gold, says Jessica Cross, VM’s chief executive. But the reduced level of de-hedging and other factors - such as the big fall in demand from jewellery producers, rising output and continued sales from reserves by central banks - means “gold is looking vulnerable on the physical side.”

Two other themes are explored in the publication. Firstly, Cross suggests: “We may already be poised on the verge of a new renaissance for gold hedging, albeit of a more modest and defined purpose that in previous years.” She says renewed use of the technique is coming from new, smaller companies that use hedging to help finance individual projects. This will, however, have a modest impact at first relative to the continuing de-hedging of the big gold producers.

The consultancies also are attempting to establish a statistical link between hedging and share prices. Non-hedging companies might be expected to have higher market ratings, given present market sentiment, with many shareholders vehemently against hedging. But VM and Haliburton say that first indications suggest this is not the case. They quickly add, however: “Objectively, this does not mean there is no relationship and we can cite a number of reasons for this.”

The quarterly Book replaces the Gold Hedging Indicator that the consultancies produced with the financial backing of the N M Rothschild investment bank. The publication’s name has been changed to reflect a change in sponsorship. Mitsui Global Precious Metals is now picking up the tab. Mitsui, one of the biggest companies in the world and the most active gold and platinum group metals trader on TOCOM, the Japanese commodity futures exchange, is offering the publication free to clients and anyone else who is interested as a contribution to a wider understanding of the global gold market.

The Book points out that the international gold hedge book has contracted, on what the consultants call “a committed ounce basis,” from a peak of 113.7m ounces part-way through 2001 to 73.1m ounces at the end of last year, a drop of 36 percent and more than 1,000 tones in nine successive quarters.

The consultants point out de-hedging has slowed since the first half of 2003 and the last three quarters of 2002. In these five quarters de-hedging averaged 4.9m ounces a quarter. In the last two quarters of 2003 the average fell to 2.3m ounces.

Cross says the first phase in gold hedging came in the 1980s when the industry was booming and because it was cheaper to borrow gold than money. The second phase was probably already in place by September 1999 when some European central banks set limits to the gold they would sell from their reserves.

“With lending from the 15 signatories capped, and considerably more in the way of certainty with respect to sales intentions, the scene was set for a significant change in hedging attitudes,” she says. “Further, the imposition of new accounting practices had far-reaching implications for derivative usage and reinforced a trend already beginning to emerge as gold began its recovery.”

The Americas region still has by far the biggest hedge book, 36.5m ounces, followed by Africa, 17.2m, Australia 14.9m and Eurasia 1.3m. (This last region is introduced for the first time to “recognise the increasing number of mining companies based in London and also in anticipation of the emergence of publicly traded companies based in the former East Bloc and China.”)

Nevertheless, in terms of months of production committed, Australia leads with 40 months, compared with the Americas - 16 months, Africa - 13 months and Eurasia - 2 months.

The Book covers the hedging practices of 100 companies that collectively account for 56.3m ounces of annual gold output, or 68 percent.

Newmont was the biggest de-hedger last year, eliminating 5.15m ounces, followed by Barrick, 2.6m ounces, and AngloGold, 2.22m. Meanwhile, Newcrest added 1.88m ounces to its hedge books.

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gesamter Thread:

• Wiederkehr der Goldvorwärtsverkäufe möglich. - BRATMAUS, 18.02.2004, 17:11
  • Re: Wiederkehr der Goldvorwärtsverkäufe möglich. - Euklid, 18.02.2004, 18:13
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