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Mix-Ansicht- Fettes bulliges Sentiment geht in die 42. Woche - kingsolomon, 23.02.2004, 17:05
Fettes bulliges Sentiment geht in die 42. Woche
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Stocks Seen Rising Even as Investor Gauge Signals Decline
Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- One of the most closely watched indicators of the outlook for U.S. stocks suggests that prices are poised to fall. Yet some analysts and investors who follow the measure said shares may rise anyway.
More than half of financial-newsletter writers have been bullish about stocks for 42 consecutive weeks, according to Investors Intelligence. That's the longest streak since the survey began in 1963.
High levels of optimism have historically suggested to so- called contrarian analysts such as Ned Davis, president of Ned Davis Research Inc., that stocks are due for a pullback.
Analysts and money managers look at Investors Intelligence's weekly survey of newsletter writers, along with measures such as a sentiment survey done by the American Association of Individual Investors, to gauge bullishness and bearishness among investors.
Investors Intelligence is a newsletter from Chartcraft Inc., a financial-information company based in New Rochelle, New York, and owned by the U.K.'s Stockcube Plc.
Peaks in optimism suggest that stocks may fall because investors who are bullish are likely to own shares already. A high in bearishness can precede a rally because investors who are pessimistic probably have sold already.
''Crowds are almost always wrong at extremes,'' said Davis, 58, whose book ''The Triumph of Contrarian Investing'' was published in November. ''Near bottoms everyone gets gripped by fear, and near tops they get gripped by euphoria.''
Optimism among newsletter writers increased last week to 59.2 percent, the highest in eight months, according to Investors Intelligence. The readings show excessive optimism similar to the months before the stock market crash in October 1987, according to the newsletter.
Bullishness among individual investors in the association's poll was 56.5 percent in the latest week. The reading peaked at 71.4, the second-highest figure ever, in June 2003.
This week, reports on consumer confidence in February may temper the optimism. Economists predict the Conference Board's index, due on Tuesday, and the University of Michigan's report, due on Friday, will show declines.
Sentiment measures are approaching their highs in the bull market of the late 1990s, when technology shares soared. Optimism in the Investors Intelligence survey reached 61.6 percent in May 1999. Bullishness among individuals climbed to 75 percent in the association's survey in January 2000.
The S&P 500 reached its high in March 2000, and then tumbled almost 50 percent in the next 2 1/2 years.
''It makes for a risky situation when people are so optimistic,'' said Michael Burke, Investors Intelligence's editor. ''The recovery that we are seeing so far can all of a sudden go wrong.''
Even so, Glenmede's Fowler said there are few alternatives to stocks for many of his clients, each of whom has a net worth of at least $10 million.
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