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Mix-Ansicht- FED Entscheidung und ein paar Kommentare ex Bloomberg - black elk, 15.11.2000, 22:55
FED Entscheidung und ein paar Kommentare ex Bloomberg
Hallo,
``Softening in business and household demand and tightening conditions in financial markets over recent months suggest that the economy could expand'' at a slower pace than it has in recent years, the FOMC said in a statement accompanying its decision.
That suggests central bankers see clear signs the economy is slowing. Even so, stocks gave up much of their gains after the Fed didn't suggest outright that rate cuts were coming soon and Treasury securities rose after the Fed said inflation wasn't accelerating. A shrinking labor pool and rising energy prices have had a ``limited effect on core measures of prices,'' the Fed said.
xxx Nur begrenzte Inflationsangst
Fed's Guard Is Up
``The Fed's guard is still up,'' said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics Ltd., in Valhalla, New York. The statement, though, suggests the Fed ``is beginning to think aloud about shifting to a more neutral position,'' he said.
Fed officials have expressed concern that the U.S. unemployment rate, at a 30-year low of 3.9 percent, will force companies to boost prices to offset the higher pay of scarce workers. Unit labor costs, a measure of expenses for wages and other compensation, rose in the third quarter at a 2.5 percent annual rate, the fastest in more than a year.
Higher Jobless Rate
Today's statement may show the Fed's ultimate goal is to see higher unemployment, some investors said.
``The unemployment rate is constant if the economy is growing at its potential, thus, if the FOMC is welcoming below potential growth for a time, then axiomatically it is welcoming an increase in the unemployment rate,'' said Paul McCulley, portfolio manager at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California.
xxx Wenn die Wirtschaftkraft sinkt und die Arbeitslosenzahhlen steigen, wird das von den Aktienmärkten zuerst honoriert werden! Von Deflation ahnt niemand etwas, sogar die Bonds könnten steigen, wie 1929..
Following their meeting today, the Fed repeated what has become standard language in their post-meeting statement that ``the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future.''
Trading in federal funds futures contracts, tied directly to the overnight bank rate, suggests investors aren't looking for a change in interest rates by the Fed at least through January. The sentiment reflects the view that a slowdown in economic growth will allow the Fed to hold the rate at its current level for several months.
`Outlook Is Good'
``The outlook is good, in the sense that we will have further economic growth,'' Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Gary Stern said in an interview earlier this month. ``We will not have, in my view, an appreciable acceleration of inflation from here.''
Gross domestic product, which rose at a 5.6 percent annual rate in the second quarter, expanded at a 2.7 percent pace in the third quarter.
Other areas of the economy have exhibited signs of cooling as well. Manufacturing has contracted for the past three months, based on surveys by the National Association of Purchasing Management. And the Fed reported today than factory production was unchanged in October -- the weakest showing since July. Output of cars, trucks and parts all declined, as car makers shut some plants temporarily to reduce inventories. Sales of cars and light trucks fell last month to the slowest pace in a year.
Slowing sales and weaker earnings have prompted warnings from scores of U.S. companies, including Intel Corp., Best Buy Co., Procter & Gamble Co., Sprint Corp., Pharmacia Corp. and Xerox Corp.
Cooling Investor Optimism
Those warnings, in turn, have cooled investor optimism. Major U.S. stock indexes, whose rise in recent years prompted Fed concerns that consumer demand would overwhelm the economy's capacity, have struggled since January. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 7 percent this year. The Nasdaq Composite Index is down 23 percent.
Still, the Fed doesn't yet have enough evidence it's accomplished the goal of bringing economic demand and supply into balance, analysts said.
Soweit Bloomberg, die immer sehr gut die Marktmeinung wiedergeben.
black elk
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