Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Dollarstärke? - Black Elk, 23.05.2000, 10:23
- Re: Dein Marktausblick - Dieter, 23.05.2000, 11:24
- Marktausblick - JFO, 23.05.2000, 11:30
- Re: Danke für eure Antworten - BlackElk, 23.05.2000, 12:30
- Re: Dollarstärke? - kw, 23.05.2000, 12:02
- Re: Dollarstärke? - NickLeeson, 23.05.2000, 17:48
Re: Dollarstärke?
Hallo Black Elk,
wie kommst Du darauf, daß Ackerman ein"absoluter Dollarbulle" wäre? Ja, er prognostiziert einen Absturz des Euro auf 75 Cent, aber er begründet diese einzig durch die Marktpsychologie. Weiter schreibt er:
"But the swoon will be brief, lasting perhaps just a day or two, just like the dollar's fleeting peak. Then, bullion will begin a long climb that will eventually carry it above its 1970s high of $850 an ounce."
Er glaubt also, daß vor dem endgültigen Zusammenbruch der amerikanischen Währung noch eine weitere Euphoriewelle kommen wird. Das Problem dabei: diese Euphoriewelle muß hier in Europa schwappen, nicht in den USA (die Amis sind ja Pleite, wie wir alle wissen).
Wird sie das? Ich bin da skeptisch, siehe mein Posting ("Widerspruch") weiter unten.
Auf cnnfn habe ich heute einen weiteren interessanten Artikel zu diesem Thema gefunden (http://cnnfn.com/2000/05/23/markets/platt_column/):
Dollar: king of currencies
Interest rates, strong U.S. economy boost dollar throughout the world
By Gordon Platt
May 23, 2000: 10:59 a.m. ET
NEW YORK (CNNfn) - Rising interest rates and a strong U.S. economy are boosting the dollar against a wide range of currencies in addition to the euro, analysts said.
Currencies in Australia and New Zealand and a large number of emerging-market nations in Asia, Africa and Latin America also have come under pressure.
"Many of these countries are struggling to match rate hikes by the Federal Reserve," said David Gilmore, partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics in Essex, Conn."And the Fed has more to go," he added.
Some of the Asian currencies have fallen to their lowest levels since the currency crisis of 1997-98, he said. So far, however, there has been no"contagion effect" such as was seen during that crisis, when currencies were toppled like a row of dominos.
There has been no generalized move by investors out of emerging markets, Gilmore said.
"The story is more that people are trading currencies like stocks," he said."The momentum is behind the dollar rally, and they want to participate."
Foreign economies react to rate hikes
Many economies outside the United States cannot keep pace with Fed rate tightening, Gilmore said.
"There are very real problems brewing in the smaller currencies of the world that do not seem to be upon the radar screens of the world's capital market's traders," said Dennis Gartman, editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter.
"The euro's weakness is nothing compared to the virtual collapse of the South African rand, or the Polish zloty, or the Philippines' peso," Gartman said.
"The Polish currency, like those of so many other former Eastern European currencies -- and even the New Zealand kiwi for that matter -- has gone into freefall," he said.
The South African rand has weakened to a record 7.15 to the dollar from 6.15 at the beginning of this year.
The New Zealand dollar last week hit a 15-year low of 46.32 U.S. cents, while the Australian dollar traded at its lowest level since August 1998.
The British pound fell to a six-year low of $1.4875 last week. Because of the pound's strength against the euro, the British monetary authorities are reluctant to raise rates, analysts said.
Welcoming a weak euro
U.S. authorities favor a strong dollar because it helps to fight inflation and to ensure that the record trade and current account deficits will be financed. At the same time, European officials openly welcome the boost to export competitiveness that comes from a weak euro, analysts said.
"There is no immediate threat of intervention by the European Central Bank," said Gilmore of Foreign Exchange Analytics.
Foreign direct investment in the United States also is helping to keep the dollar strong, he said.
"European companies are flush with cash and they want to own market share in the United States," Gilmore said."They want to own the 'new economy.'"
Europe is financing the entire U.S. trade deficit, while Japanese investors are keeping more of their yen at home, Gilmore said.
The dollar ran into resistance at 110 yen last week and fell back on a report that major Japanese life insurers would not boost their holding of foreign bonds this year. Japanese 10-year postal savings accounts -- which paid 5.5 percent interest -- are maturing. They are being reinvested at 1.7 percent in Japanese bonds, despite the lure of higher rates in the United States.
"Expectations that Japanese growth will lead to a stronger yen have led to an increase in risk aversion in Japan," said analysts at IDEAglobal.com.
"Who cares about yields?" they said."Higher U.S. rates coupled with inflation risks are not a cocktail for promoting Japanese investment into U.S. bonds." Last year, Japanese holding of U.S. bonds increased by $44 billion to $320 billion.
"Continued euro weakness and the risk for dollar weakness should ensure that risk aversion in maintained, limiting investment outflows from Japan," according to the IDEAglobal.com analysts.
The yen rose sharply Friday, pushing the euro to a record low of 94.87 yen, after Bank of Japan Governor Masaru Hayami said that deflationary pressures had ended in Japan. Hayami was preparing the markets for an end to the BOJ's zero-interest-rate policy, analysts said.
Although Japan's gross domestic product is expected to have grown at an 8 percent to 10 percent annual rate in the first quarter of this year, analysts said they don't expect this strength to be sustained.
They said Hayami's comments appear to be at odds with economic data and with the recent steep losses in the Japanese stock market.
-- Gordon Platt is a freelance columnist writing about currency markets for CNNfn.com.
mfg, NickLeeson
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