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Mix-Ansicht- wie ein roter Faden - jetzt kommt wieder Aden - Emerald, 18.03.2004, 06:02
wie ein roter Faden - jetzt kommt wieder Aden
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Silver and crude oil shot up to new highs today, while gold's rise looks like the D decline is over. Silver is very strong above $6.80; if it closes and stays above $7.30, it would be at its 1987 highs where it could soar. Silver would then be changing its form and it would be leading gold out of the D decline. Silver shares (SSRI, CDE & PAAS) are holding near their highs, but they have yet to rise with silver.
Gold is close to confirming an A rise. If April gold can close and stay above $407, the D decline will be over and an A rise will be underway. Gold could then rise to test its January highs. Meanwhile copper, platinum and palladium remain near their highs, and they're strong above: $1.20, $855 and $230, respectively. Oil is very strong above $36.
The gold share indices continue to hold above their January 29 lows while their indicators are getting closer to oversold areas. Keep an eye on these lows at 213.18 on HUI and 94.05 on XAU, as they will continue basing above these levels. A close above 235 on HUI will be a good sign, and a renewed rise will be confirmed above 242.03 on HUI and 105.23 on XAU. AEM and PAL are strong while the following are in a solid base: BGO, GLG, ABX, GSS, NEM, PDG, WHT, BVN and EGO. The South African shares are weak, many are at new lows in an oversold area, while the above mentioned ones are rising from oversold. Buy the strongest as well as silver shares.
The U.S. Dollar's rebound rise is stalling but it's not over yet. Keep an eye on the dollar index. A close above 89.60 (basis June), means the rise could go to 92. But if the dollar index closes below 87.50, and stays there, the rise will be over. Meanwhile, the yen jumped up this week and it may be leading the currencies out of the downward correction. You'll remember, the Canadian dollar led the decline in January, the yen followed and finally the stronger Australian and New Zealand dollars fell in a steeper decline last week. The yen is now firm and stable above.9100. The currencies will remain under pressure below: 1.2470 euro, 1.84 British pound,.7600 Aussie,.6645 Kiwi and.7600 Canadian. The currencies are getting closer to an oversold zone while the currency funds like ICPHX, PSAFX and FAX are oversold. The currencies could remain under pressure a while longer but if they stay above the recent lows, the decline may be nearing an end. Keep your positions and buy new ones now and over the coming weeks.
Today's stock market rise is normal following the sharp sell off, but it doesn't change the new downtrend. The indices could rise to the following levels, but even if they do, the market is still vulnerable to a further decline. The levels are: 10500 on the Dow, 2030 on Nasdaq and 2950 on Transports. The Dow Utilities shot up today to a new high. It's the only strong sector in the market.
Bonds remain strong short-term as long as the yields stay below 4.80% on the 30 year and 3.90% on the 10 year. The 10 year could still decline to 3.55% while bond prices rise. But even if it does, bonds will still be forming a major top. (Major bottom for long-term yields). The Fed left interest rates unchanged yesterday which makes nine months that Fed funds has been at 1%. Since this low has not been seen on a consistent basis since 1958, it reflects the extreme efforts by the Fed to keep the economy going.
The world equity markets are moving with the U.S. market. The Asia funds jumped up but it's still best to stay out for now.
Warm wishes and until next week,
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden
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