Euro: Goin' down for the last time

verfasst von kingsolomon, 26.03.2004, 08:53

-->der Kommentar von UBS bringt das mittelfristige Dilemma auf den Punkt: zuviele
Bullen!

Euro Goin' Down For The Last Time?
25.03.2004 21:27:23
EUR: Weaker
USD: Positive
Author: Dave Toth Asian Update

EUR/USD:"Save my life I'm goin down for the last time!" For any of you 1980s rockers, only a quick look at the attached 240-minute Euro chart is needed to rekindle memories of that great Head East tune - There's Never Been Any Reason. As result of Wed's sharp relapse, the market now lies below almost all of the past three months' price action, with only 03-Mar's 1.2059 low standing in the way of indeterminate downside potential. Keeping in mind that the extent of the past month's relapse has confirmed bearish divergence in weekly momentum at a time when the masses are still historically optimistic on the Euro's future, the market has definitely exposed a vulnerability lower.

It is also interesting to note that despite a full month's worth of erosion from 1.29 to 1.20, the bullish sentiment accorded the Euro has only fallen to 74%, with the 18-week moving average of these data is at a still stratospheric 83% level! Such hanging-on to a bullish cause is exactly the type of technical factor that leaves the market vulnerable to an extended move the opposite way, especially following the break of a pivotal low and support like 1.2059.

In sum, a break below 03-Mar's 1.2059 low will confirm the larger-degree trend as down and reinforce the recent 1.2200-area former support-turned-resistance as a near-term gauge of this market's developing downside vulnerability. Alternatively, strength above at least this 1.2200-area, and preferably above Tue's 1.2367 corrective high is required to threaten or defer this bearish view.

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gesamter Thread:

• Euro: Goin' down for the last time - kingsolomon, 26.03.2004, 08:53
  • so einfach ist das nicht - Amanito, 26.03.2004, 12:03
    • $ auf einem 9-Jahres-Tief natürlich, nicht Hoch (o.Text) - Amanito, 26.03.2004, 12:04
    • schoo, idealerweise möchte ich aber Zweifel am Langfristtrend sehen - kingsolomon, 26.03.2004, 12:20
      • Re: schoo, idealerweise möchte ich aber Zweifel am Langfristtrend sehen - Amanito, 26.03.2004, 12:38
    • Doch so einfach kann es sein - philliecht, 26.03.2004, 12:42
      • Re: Doch so einfach kann es sein - Amanito, 26.03.2004, 13:32
        • mehr zum Sentiment - Amanito, 26.03.2004, 14:28
          • Bullish wie ein Schwein - Euklid, 26.03.2004, 14:32
            • Re: Bullish wie ein Schwein - Amanito, 26.03.2004, 14:39