Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- War wohl nix mit dem 2000er Crash - wie gehts weiter? - Desaster, 19.11.2000, 21:02
- Re: War wohl nix mit dem 2000er Crash - wie gehts weiter? - dottore, 19.11.2000, 21:14
- Wie´s weiter geht? - U.a. hier findest Du Hinweise darauf! - Erwin, 19.11.2000, 21:58
- Re: Gretchen, kommst a bisserl spät, kannten wir alles schon! - dottore, 19.11.2000, 22:34
- Was ist eine"Soft Landing" & wer landet? Schon der Begriff stinkt... - Hardy, 20.11.2000, 08:59
- USA - Soft-Landing mT - Sascha, 20.11.2000, 12:07
Re: Gretchen, kommst a bisserl spät, kannten wir alles schon!
Ach, von meiner alten Freundin Gretchen (kenn ich noch aus Forbes-Zeiten):
>And since much of the economic growth in this nation over the past few years came from the big money spent by companies that had raised cash in the anything-goes bond market, the economy could slow quite sharply as the money spigots go dry.
Ja, ja. So wird's kommen.
>Finally, as more and more companies go under, their woes could turn a soft economic landing into a much bumpier one. And the longest American expansion on record could come abruptly to an end.
Ja, ja, nix mit soft landing. Wer hat den Quatsch bloß jemals geglaubt?
>Byron Wien, chief United States investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, sees little good in the signals the bond market is sending.
>"One," he said,"the hard landing possibility for next year is more realistic than the stock market believes. Two, even if there is a soft landing, corporate fixed expenses have built up during this nine- year period of prosperity and will be hard to roll back, so that a minor shortfall in revenues will cause a major shortfall in profits."
Ja, ja, hard landing also. Das kleinstmögliche Einmalseins der Wirtschaft!
>The corporate debt market has grown enormously in recent years, expanding to accommodate the burgeoning capital needs of hundreds of companies. Although most investors focus on the stock market, the corporate bond market dwarfs it in size.
Ja, ja, NYSE ist ein Zwerg!
>And, to cite just one other example among many, on May 17, GST Telecommunications, a Vancouver voice and data services provider, declared bankruptcy. Although Time Warner bought its assets, it paid only 70 percent of the book value of the company's plant, property and equipment. That left just 50 cents on the dollar for bondholders.
Ja, ja, das ist noch großzügig! 50 %!
>Meanwhile, the sickliness of the corporate bond market is also seen in the rising interest rates that high- yield issues must pay to attract investors. According to Merrill Lynch, such bonds now yield 13.34 percent, up from the 10.3 percent demanded by investors in September 1998, when Long-Term Capital Management was sinking and the capital markets stood still. And high-yield bonds are trading at yields that are almost 9 percentage points higher than comparable Treasury securities. The difference between those two yields is called the spread.
Ja, ja, über den Spread war hier schon unendlich viel zu lesen!
>Perhaps the greatest surprise to bond investors has been the seemingly overnight collapse of the credit ratings of once high-quality corporations."Coming out of left field, a number of investment grade companies like Xerox, J. C. Penney and Laidlaw fell off a cliff, going straight from investment grade to distressed," said Martin S. Fridson, chief high-yield strategist at Merrill Lynch.
Ja, ja, Sürprise, Sürprise.
Merkt denn wirklich niemand, dass der Kollaps in der Tür steht?!!!
>"The telecom area is venture capital masquerading as high-yield," Mr. Hersch said."You had businesses that had good stories to tell and only future earnings to point to." Now, those earnings are in doubt.
Ja, ja. Ist hier im Board längst bekannt, dass sich die Telecoms sämtlich strecken werden! Und Ron - wehe, wehe, wenn ich auf sein Ende sehe!
>Vendor financing usually involved a company — Lucent Technologies is an example — using its high-grade balance sheet to finance equipment that it sells to customers with weaker credit profiles. The buyer gets the equipment at much lower interest rates than it would otherwise have been able to get from a bank.
>But the seller takes on the risk of lending money to a speculative company. And indeed, last month, Lucent warned investors that it was increasing its expenses to cover bad debts from its customer financing. The news sent Lucent's stock reeling, and it dropped 32 percent in a single day.
Ja, ja, Lucent. Wer ist diesen Wert eigentlich noch n i c h t short? Der sollte sich Mal untersuchen lassen.
>On Wall Street, there's another worrisome factor: As the high-yield market has grown in recent years, the number of brokerage firms and banks willing to trade the securities has declined.
Ja, ja, kommt auch noch dazu.
>But some analysts fear that even if Mr. Greenspan cuts interest rates in coming months, it may not help this situation. The cost of debt capital for high-yield telecom companies is 15.6 percent;if the Fed eases by 200 basis points, it wouldn't substantially lower their costs.
Ja, ja. Auch hier schon noch und noch gepostet.
>Furthermore, since the huge growth in capital spending that has fueled economic growth in the United States was largely funded by high- yield bonds, when the market freezes, it cuts off access to capital. When a big growth engine stalls, the economy could get hit hard.
Ja, ja. Aber was heißt"hard"? Es wird das E N D E sein.
Gretchen, bist zwar immer noch 'ne Granate. Aber so fix wie wir hier, bisse leider nicht mehr.
Good Night!
d.
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