US-Wirtschaft schon wieder in der Rezession

verfasst von Amanito, 05.04.2004, 11:36

-->wenn man die Aktienmärkte am letzten Freitag als Maßstab hernimmt. Kommentar Mark Hulbert am 9.2. nachdem der Aktienmarkt sehr positiv auf schlechte Arbeitsmarktzahlen reagiert hat:

Yet recent academic research suggests that the stock market's reaction may not be as schizophrenic as it appears to these advisers and no doubt many others as well.

That research found that when the economy is growing, a weaker-than-expected jobs report often is welcomed because it suggests that there will be less pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates. The stock market typically rallies on such occasions.

But when the economy is in a recession, in contrast, unexpectedly bad unemployment news usually is typically taken at face value as, simply, bad news. Stocks often fall on these occasions.

The study,"The Stock Market Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News is Usually Good for Stocks," was written by finance professors John Boyd, of the University of Minnesota and Ravi Jagannathan of Northwestern, and a Fannie Mae (FNM: news, chart, profile) economist, Jian Hu.

So, far from being surprising, the stock market's reaction to Friday's unemployment report is exactly what you would expect when the economy is growing and there is widespread concern about the Fed raising rates.

Am Freitag war es schon wieder umgekehrt, gute Zahlen wurden sehr positiv aufgenommen, ein Zeichen, daß die Wirtschaft schon bereits wieder in der Rezession ist.

Manfred

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• US-Wirtschaft schon wieder in der Rezession - Amanito, 05.04.2004, 11:36