Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Bevor Ihr die Flinte ins Korn werft! - Emerald, 14.04.2004, 07:58
Bevor Ihr die Flinte ins Korn werft!
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ang on XAU
Blue chips weren't the only ones heavily sold on Tuesday. Gold stocks took a
beating as well, with the XAU (Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index) falling over
6%. This could set up a potential low-risk buying opportunity at Wednesday's
close, because the 5-day RSI for the XAU closed in extreme oversold
territory today (below 15.) The RSI (relative strength index) is an
overbought/oversold oscillator that ranges from 0-100, with readings above
75 typically signaling that price is 'overbought' and readings below 25
typically signaling that price is 'oversold'. Should the XAU close lower
again on Wednesday, it would keep the 5-day RSI below 15 for two consecutive
days, and this has traditionally been a good low-risk point to step in and
buy for a short-term trade. Since 1995, there have been a dozen cases of the
5-day RSI for the XAU settling below 15 two days running, all of which are
listed in the table below...
XAU 5-day RSI under 15 two consecutive days
03/11/03... XAU +0.9% when RSI back over 15
10/09/02... XAU +1.4% when RSI back over 15
09/20/00... XAU +1.5% when RSI back over 15
07/24/00... XAU +1.5% when RSI back over 15
08/28/98... XAU -0.2% when RSI back over 15
12/04/97... XAU +3.9% when RSI back over 15
09/16/97... XAU +0.9% when RSI back over 15
03/24/97... XAU +1.0% when RSI back over 15
01/06/97... XAU +1.9% when RSI back over 15
06/11/96... XAU -1.1% when RSI back over 15
10/24/95... XAU +2.3% when RSI back over 15
10/18/95... XAU +0.5% when RSI back over 15
Notice that in nearly every case, the XAU was trading flat or higher when
the RSI closed back over 15, which normally occurs on the first higher close
following this setup. This tends to indicate that it's not only the
traditional stock indices, but also gold indices, that would look
particularly attractive if sellers maintain the upper hand on Wednesday. You
may recall from my March 28th column that one of the chief arguments against
the bearish case is that the short side is simply too crowded to expect a
lasting selloff to take hold. That's the primary reason why I argued against
blindly following the shift back to the short side by commercial traders in
S&P futures at the end of March. The general public is still all too willing
to bet against this rally, and a session like today will only embolden them
further. In my book, that's a time to begin fading the crowd, which in this
case means buying into further weakness. More on this in tomorrow's
commentary.
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