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Mix-Ansicht- Adjustable Mortgages - die tickende Zeitbombe wird wohl erst in 2-3 Jahren - CRASH_GURU, 16.04.2004, 17:32
- How Mortgages Work - Helmut, 16.04.2004, 19:56
Adjustable Mortgages - die tickende Zeitbombe wird wohl erst in 2-3 Jahren
-->explodieren da 5 bis 7 Jahre fest sind:
From Chad Hudson's"The Risk of ARM's":
"... More and more homebuyers have gravitated toward adjustable rate mortgages even as rates have held steady. We think this is one indication that homebuyers are overleveraging themselves. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, more than 20% of mortgage applications have been for ARMs in each of the past 36 weeks. This is the longest stretch since 1999 when the Fed increased rates from 4.75% to 6.5% over a one-year period. With the percent of ARM applications near highs, it will be interesting to see if a larger percent of homebuyers are willing to accept the interest rate risk. Most ARMs have a fixed term of either five or seven year and are being marketed to those that do not expect to live in their house that long. Thus the homebuyer does not perceive that they are incurring any interest rate risk. The situation could develop if interest rates do rise, the pool of potential buyers could be diminished because with higher interest rates, their monthly payments would be significantly higher w
ithout accounting for any increase in value of the house. This smaller pool of buyers obviously means less demand which could cause prices to fall. So even if homebuyers anticipate moving within five years, they are shouldering much more risk then they perceive. The labor report gave further evidence that the Fed might be behind the curve. If that is the case, the most recent example to draw from started in 1994 when the Fed increased its target rate from 3% to 6% from February 1994 to February 1995. I have a feeling not many ARM buyers are prepared to have their rates adjust upwards by a few hundred basis points."
http://www.prudentbear.com/midweekanalysis.asp
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