eben eine typisch russ. Geschäfts-Anbahnung: bei $ 17.50 an Dich!

verfasst von Emerald, 27.04.2004, 05:33

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Fight or flight for Gold Fields?
By: Tim Wood
Posted: '26-APR-04 18:36' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004



ZURICH (Mineweb.com) -- A frequent topic of conversation at the European Gold Forum that ended on Friday in Zurich, was the fate of Gold Fields [GFI]; its independence more precisely now that a Norilsk Nickel [NILSY] executive has confirmed that the Russian group intends increasing its holding beyond the 20% stake acquired from Anglo American [AAUK] in a snap transaction last month.

Although there is considerable suspicion of NorNickel for a host of reasons, investors we canvassed said the deal was important for clearing the Gold Fields stock overhang. Now they are hoping it will also invigorate Gold Fields and provide a window into the Russian company which trades on an odd blend of inscrutability, ruthlessness, high politics and business school smarts.


One primary source for all the speculation is simply the mismatch of style and temperament - NorNickel the aggressive predator and Gold Fields the urbane technicians. Gold Fields dare not appear weak under any circumstance; just ask Stillwater Mining [SWC] shareholders though management did rather well for itself.

Originally considered impulsive, Russian gold industry insiders say NorNickel’s move on Gold Fields was as calculated as it was opportunistic. A source says the intention is to inject the assets of NorNickel subsidiary, Polyus into Gold Fields in exchange for equity. That would provide NorNickel with control over an enlarged Russo-African gold producer capable of bidding for a world top three ranking by production.

Polyus owns the Olimpiadinskoe gold mines and recently purchased the nearby Titimukhta deposit. The company also has rights to the Tyradinsk, Olen’, and Blagodatny deposits. NorNickel’s other gold assets include the Lenzoloto project and the Matrosov Mine.

However, not all Gold Fields shareholders are partial to the idea of NorNickel taking control. Some would prefer Gold Fields to continue pursuing an independent growth path though there are mutterings about the slow pace to date.

Sukhoi Log, the multimillion ounce gold project due for auction later this year, figures prominently in all the supposition. Gold companies are positioning to compete for it though talk is that the government favours a majority Russian owner. However, good deals more often than not trump any nationalist hangover.

NorNickel is clearly a front runner by virtue of its knowledge and manoeuvring. It already controls a source of energy for the project through the acquisition of Lenzoloto. Gold Fields could contribute technical competence, its proprietary biological oxidation process, plus a well developed, liquid capital channel to complement NorNickel’s own capacity.

It’s far from a done deal. It is important to note that Gold Fields has not offered NorNickel a seat on its board and is not showing signs of being ready to roll over and be tickled. Indeed, some shareholders would like to see Gold Fields poke a stick at the Russian interloper.

A way to do that would be for Gold Fields to launch a bid for Sukhoi Log that competes with NorNickel.

It could not do it alone, but there are now sufficient companies that have bridged the Russian-Western markets to partner with. One option is Bema Gold [BGO] whose president, Clive Johnson, told Mineweb he would be delighted to explore the idea.

Yet Gold Fields needs growth and diversification, even if it is not reducing geographic risk. Perversely, there might even be some attraction in the tension surrounding president Putin’s face off with the oligarchs. It is Vladimir Potanin's and Mikhail Prokhorov’s hold on NorNickel, rather than NorNickel’s hold on its assets that is potentially threatened. As such, Gold Fields might find itself holding keys to a reasonable castle and no royal family in sight.

NorNickel faces having to make an offer to Gold Fields minorities as soon as it reaches 35%. The South African government has already dispatched a prior bidder for Gold Fields, Franco-Nevada, and it remains to be seen how NorNickel could make itself more attractive than the Canadian; especially for investors wanting evidence of neutrality.

Then NorNickel still has to worry about surrendering at least another 11% of Gold Fields domestic assets to satisfy race quotas. It is unlikely that NorNickel would buy up more of Gold Fields without settling with an “empowerment” partner first. What you can be sure of is that NorNickel, which abhors weakness, won’t be doing any discounting or complex loan schemes for the black partner who is likely to be found on one of the lists of endorsed candidates that now emanate from government for such deals.

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gesamter Thread:

• Total-Uebernahme von Goldfields durch russ. Norilsk Nickel - Emerald, 26.04.2004, 21:54
  • Re: Total-Uebernahme von Goldfields durch russ. Norilsk Nickel -- glaube ich.. - Fischli, 27.04.2004, 00:07
    • eben eine typisch russ. Geschäfts-Anbahnung: bei $ 17.50 an Dich! - Emerald, 27.04.2004, 05:33