Falsche Statistiken auch in GB?

verfasst von dottore, 27.04.2004, 10:24

-->Hi,

aus dem DT heute:

CBI survey casts doubt on 'official' statistics

By Edmund Conway (Filed: 27/04/2004)

City economists yesterday sounded an alarm over the state of the UK's official statistics, as independent assessments of the manufacturing sector diverged further from Government figures.

Business lobby group the CBI said total orders in the sector rose by their fastest rate for nine years this quarter.

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[Balken = ONS Manufactoring production 3/3 months, rote Linie = CBI Expected output, 3 months moving average]

Economists said the CBI Industrial Trends survey's results would, in usual circumstances, help persuade the Bank of England to raise interest rates next month but there was now a disparity between independent surveys and data from the Office for National Statistics.

In its most recent look at the sector earlier this month, the ONS said industrial output had contracted by 0.6pc in February, with almost every sub-sector of industry registering a decline.

The sector's apparent ill-health fed into the estimates of the UK's gross domestic product in the year's first quarter, leaving analysts fretting about imbalances within the economy.

Yesterday's survey from the CBI was the latest well-respected release to underline that, in fact, the sector had been growing quickly over the past six months. Two weeks ago the British Chambers of Commerce said the sector grew strongly in the year's first quarter. This message is also borne out by figures from the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply and the manufacturing lobby group EEF.

Although manufacturing output as a whole is relatively small, its growth and contraction provides a key indication of the wider health of the economy.

Economists yesterday warned that this inexplicable [!] discrepancy was preventing the monetary policy committee from making a well-informed decision about interest rates, which it will discuss next week.

The minutes of the last MPC meeting, released last week, show this has already become a concern.

(...)

However, George Buckley, UK economist at Deutsche Bank, pointed out that the ONS figures had been diverging from the CBI numbers - and indeed most independent data - for the past year.

"It's pretty obvious that the Bank of England is very uncertain as to which of these figures are correct," he said."I think they will probably err on the side of the unofficial data rather than those from the ONS, particularly since even their own agents are saying that the outlook for manufacturers is improving.

Der Statistik-Morast wird immer tiefer...

Gruß!

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gesamter Thread:

• Falsche Statistiken auch in GB? - dottore, 27.04.2004, 10:24
  • Re: Falsche Statistiken auch in GB? - Popeye, 27.04.2004, 10:36
    • Re: Falsche Statistiken auch in GB? - Euklid, 27.04.2004, 10:52
      • Re: Umsatzsteuerstatistik auch gefälscht? - dottore, 27.04.2004, 12:32
        • Nein natürlich nicht. - Euklid, 27.04.2004, 13:14
          • Re: Nein natürlich nicht. - kizkalesi, 27.04.2004, 13:48
          • Re: Nein natürlich nicht. / ach ja? - - Elli -, 27.04.2004, 13:54
            • Re: Nein natürlich nicht. / ach ja? - Euklid, 27.04.2004, 14:02
          • Leider falsch, Euklid - chiron, 27.04.2004, 14:58
            • Re: Leider falsch, Euklid - Euklid, 27.04.2004, 15:09
          • Re: Wie inflationiert die Ingenieurskunst? - dottore, 27.04.2004, 15:04
            • Re: Wie inflationiert die Ingenieurskunst? - Euklid, 27.04.2004, 16:55
              • Re: Darf Frage wiederholen: Wie inflationiert die Ingenieurskunst? - dottore, 27.04.2004, 17:34
                • Re: Darf Frage wiederholen: Wie inflationiert die Ingenieurskunst? - Euklid, 27.04.2004, 18:14
                  • Re: Darf Frage wiederholen: Wie inflationiert die Ingenieurskunst? Zusatz - Euklid, 27.04.2004, 18:28
                    • Re: Zum Zusatz noch - dottore, 27.04.2004, 19:15
                      • Re: Zum Zusatz noch - Euklid, 27.04.2004, 20:14
                  • Re: Darf Fragen dennoch wiederholen: - dottore, 27.04.2004, 18:44
        • Re: Umsatzsteuerstatistik auch gefälscht? nein aber keiner schreibt Rechnungen (o.Text) - CRASH_GURU, 27.04.2004, 18:46
          • Re: Dann darf ich schließen... - dottore, 27.04.2004, 19:02
            • Reicht dies aus? - Euklid, 27.04.2004, 19:16
    • Re:"Erwartungs-Statistiken" - dottore, 27.04.2004, 11:53
  • Re: Falsche Statistiken auch in GB? - Amanito, 27.04.2004, 10:38
    • Re: Die BoE rasiert die Gläubiger? - dottore, 27.04.2004, 12:39
      • Re: Die BoE rasiert die Gläubiger? - Amanito, 27.04.2004, 13:15
  • anders als in USA - kingsolomon, 27.04.2004, 11:53