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Mix-Ansicht- UBS: Zitate ĂĽber Goldkurs-Ziele, Fakten und Abstraktem..................... - Emerald, 11.05.2004, 08:11
UBS: Zitate ĂĽber Goldkurs-Ziele, Fakten und Abstraktem.....................
-->wie immer von mir ohne Ge(wehr)!
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As a result of recent changes to UBS’ EURUSD forecast, we have updated our gold price forecast, lowering the 2004-end target and pushing out the rally in the price into early 2005. We continue to forecast that gold will trade substantially higher from the current level of US$378/oz, however, due to the change in our economists’ forecast for USD/EUR, the peak in gold occurs in the first quarter of 2005 rather than the fourth quarter of 2004. The peak of US$470/oz is lower than the previous peak of US$480/oz because of our forecast for higher US interest rates, which will prevent gold hitting the highs that we previously expected. Increasing interest rates will also contribute to the sell-off in gold that we expect for 2005 and 2006.
Gold: COTR: Data released Friday shows that Comex trading speculators cut their gross long positions further in the week to May 4th but also added around 1.3 million ounces to their Gross short positions in the week to last Tuesday. Overall the net long position fell by 2 million ounces to 10.44 Moz roughly in line with our expectations. Since last Tuesday open interest has risen a little despite the further fall in gold, an indication that we have seen further long liquidation and new short selling. We now estimate that Comex trading speculators have a net long position somewhere between 8 and 9 million ounces in size, considerably lower than the recent all-time high of 22.5 million ounces.
News: Ghana could be the next big strategic area for Newmont Mining, which expects to increase its mineral reserves this year through exploring in West Africa and elsewhere, the company's top executive said on Friday. Newmont's key areas are Nevada, Peru, Australia and Indonesia, but Ghana has strong potential, Wayne Murdy told reporters at the end of a four-day gold conference in Peru."Our next area for growth is West Africa, in Ghana," Murdy said. Newmont acquired the Ghanaian interests when it merged with Australia's Normandy in 2002."We thought it was small, (but now) potentially we think it will become our fifth core region. We think we'll continue to make discoveries there," he said of Ghana and the project there. Newmont's $350 million Ahafo mining project in Ghana is expected to produce 500,000 ounces of gold a year, and is expected to start operations in the second half of 2006."Given the opportunities this year, we think we can grow (our reserves) base further," Murdy said. Newmont reported at the end of 2003 reserves of 91.3 million ounces of gold (edited Reuters story).
Trading: Gold took its direction from US data on Friday, moving up ahead of he release of non-farm payroll data was released but then was heavily sold after the very strong data. Once Comex June traded down through US$380/oz, speculative selling of gold was triggered with about 4000-5000 lots changing hands around that level before dipping to US$377.50 before finding support from physical demand. Gold ended a dollar off the lows but still a disappointing end to the session and the week. In Asia, gold came under renewed pressure from Tocom sellers from the outset with Asian equity markets also under pressure. Support was found around the $375/oz level but this proved to be short lived and the metal came under renewed selling pressure in early European trading. High yielding currencies were also getting hit, a clear sign that reflation and carry trades are under pressure.
View: Liquidation in gold has brought the metal much lower over the past six weeks and is now close to some important looking chart levels between $365 and $375. Rising US interest rate expectations and fears of a hard landing in China are affecting most commodities and carry currencies, but we believe that this reaction is overdone. We continue to believe that China is in the process of an orderly slow-down and that the landing will be soft, with economic growth returning to a moderate 8% level over the next two years. As to the Fed tightening, metal price weakness is common ahead of the start of Fed tightening, but once tightening starts metals rallied strongly during the last three cycles. Gold will also be strongly influenced by the direction of the US dollar, which we continue to forecast will weaken sharply over the next twelve months.
Silver: COTR: Comex trading speculators cut both their gross long and their gross short positions in the week to last Tuesday, 4th May. The gross long position was reduced by 42 million ounces while the gross short position fell 16Moz to leave the net long position off 25Moz at 348Moz; this is 140 million ounces lower than the all-time high reached in early March.
Trading: Like gold, silver weakened on Friday after strong US payroll data saw the dollar strengthen and US interest rates increase. The metal remained weak in Asia and early European trading although the magnitude of the decline in silver has been small, following on from the recent heavy selling.
View: After heavy selling through most of April, silver has found some buying interest below $6.00/oz. If the consolidation in base metals proves to be the prelude to a recovery as traders re-assess the recent China news, then silver can trade higher from here, although the metal remains a prisoner of speculators and investors.
Platinum Group Metals: COTR: A mixture of long liquidation and short covering was seen in Nymex platinum trading in the week to May 4th with the net long position declining by 14koz to 71koz; In palladium long liquidation was heavier as gross longs fell by 103koz to a still-large 713koz. A small change in the gross short positions saw the net long position off 92koz to 573koz, more than 400koz off the recent highs.
News: South Africa's first platinum jewellery factory has been opened in Cape Town. It is a $53 million venture between companies from four countries. It is seen as a breakthrough in the benefaction from the platinum produced in South Africa. The new venture was clinched between leading Italian jewellery manufacturer, Silmar, Impala Platinum and other partners. Keith Rumble, the CEO of Implats said:"We have very unique partners in this venture... and I think this compatibility is going to make for a great business." The deal is in line with legislation to get mining companies involved in manufacturing. Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, the minister of mineral and energy affairs, said:"They don't have to turn into a jewellery making company, the fact that you've invested in it fulfils the requirements of the act." Most of the jewellery will be exported, with countries like China at the top of the list (SABC news).
Trading: Platinum and palladium has slid steadily lower over the past two days’ trading as concerns about a hard landing in China and the impact of Fed tightening has weighed on both metals. There has been some sign of post holiday buying of platinum from China, although more evidence is required before we will become comfortable predicting a strong bounce in platinum.
View: Returning Chinese buyers of platinum after the weeklong holiday may see platinum as a bargain around $800/oz and may lift the metal higher. Palladium, in contrast, is threatened by still-large long positions.
John Reade
UBS Precious Metals Analysis
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