Re: NEIN, können sie nicht / Giralgeld"volumen" - liegt's am Tank?

verfasst von R.Deutsch, 22.11.2000, 15:39

>
>>> Die Bundesbank selbst (die Bundesbank selbst) schreibt:"Nun deutet aber schon die Höhe des Giralgeldvolumens darauf hin, dass das Bankensystem darüber hinaus in
>>> der
>>> > Lage ist, durch Gewährung von Krediten aktiv Giralgeld entstehen zu lassen und damit die Geldmenge
>>> insgesamt zu erhöhen."
>A K T I V - das ist hier das Wieselwort. Aktiv können die Banken gar nichts. Beschreib doch Mal, wie das aussehen soll!
>Kredite kann jedermann gewähren, schon der Kaufmann, der zulässt, dass angeschrieben wird.
>Und außerdem diese Buba-Ausdrücke:"Deutet schon darauf hin..." (Man beachte das"schon"!) Und dann das"Volumen"! Wo sind wir denn! Volumen = Inhalt = Größe einer Fläche in Flächeneinheiten oder = Größe eines Körpers in Raumeinheiten.
>Ei, wo liegt denn die Fläche, wo wir das Giralgeld bestaunen dürfen oder gar der Tank, in dem es sich befindet. Ziemlich großer Tank, oder?
>Wer solchen voluminösen Schwachsinn verzapft, muss dringend in Behandlung!
>Gruß
>d.
>Im übrigen: Siehe JüKü unten!
>
>>>Unabhängig davon, wie es gebucht wird, das Ergebnis ist nach Aussage der Bundesbank, daß das Bankensystem Giralgeld entstehen lassen kann und damit die Geldmenge insgesamt erhöhen kann. Willst Du nun mit Deiner Antwort sagen, die Bundesbank irrt, sie hat bei dieser Aussage eine Buchung vergessen, die Banken sind nicht in der Lage durch Gewährung von Krediten aktiv Giralgeld entstehen zu lassen und damit die Geldmenge insgesamt zu erhöhen?
>>>Wäre schön, wenn wir zunächst diese einfache Frage mal klären könnten.
>>>Gruß
>>>Reinhard
>>Ich dachte schon, dass ich das beantwortet habe: NEIN, KÃ-NNEN SIE NICHT! Ich sagte doch, eine Bank kann nicht einfach"einen Kredit gewähren", sondern nur einen geben, WENN IHN EINER WILL ("Du nimmst jetzt gefälligst einen Kredit von mir!" - das funktioniert nicht). Derjenige, der NEUE SCHULDEN macht ist es, der darüber bestimmt, ob neue Kredite (Geld) entstehen. Wenn keiner einen Kredit haben will, können die Banken GAR NICHTS machen! Siehe Japan! Trotz Fast-Nullzins will keiner Schulden machen! Warum"schöpfen" die Banken da nicht einfach Geld, wenn es so einfach ist?
>>-----------------------------------------
>>fiat money gelddiskussion geldschöpfung giralgeld


Lieber dottore,

Du fragst:

"A K T I V - das ist hier das Wieselwort. Aktiv können die Banken gar nichts. Beschreib doch Mal, wie das aussehen soll!"

Ganz einfach - die Banken pumpen sich gegenseitig an. Ich leg vorsichtshalber mal noch etwas aus der Praxis dazu, damit man sieht, wie die Giralgeldmenge gerade explodiert.




Current Economic Snapshot November 2000 - Oil and Politics...They just don't
mix.


This executive summary on the current state of the Economy is made for the 21st century
manager, who needs hard data in a short and comprehensible format.
As promised, this month's format is shorter, with the exception of the oil market information.



General Commentary:

All of a sudden, and as reported by Midas, Central Banks saw the light and started
discovering and proclaiming to the world their vision of Gold's superior benefits in times of
financial uncertainty. They are calling for a reduction in the gold loans.

Most likely, the huge Trade Deficit of the USA this month helped them to see the light, make
no mistake about it.

The author will make a prediction.
As all predictions, it is based on a number of factors, such as current available data,
experience, imagination, extrapolation of current trends, etc.
Here it is:

If the political process, in the USA Presidential Election, has not been finalized by the 1st of
December 2000, with fairness to BOTH candidates and the Will of the Majority of the Land,
the USA will suffer an Oil Shock larger than the one in 1973.

The why and the conclusions will be left for the reader to imagine and figure out.



Money Supply for Jan-October 2000:

M3 up 443.4 billion or 6.83 % in the 10 months (8.2 % yearly rate) to 6,934.5 billion from
6,491.1 billion. October was a slow growth month as you can see below.

M3 monthly yearly growth rates:

January 8.86%
February 4.24%
March 14.34%
April 9.38%
May 3.94%
June 7.70%
July 8.79%
August 9.71%
September 8.32%
October 4.31%


M3 average yearly growth rate increased to 8.2 % from previous month's 8.1 % rate.
It is interesting to note the similarity between the monthly M3 rate of change and the
NASDAQ Index rate of change.

During the first week of November, M3 increased another 20 billion, or a rate of 15%
annually for the week, and look at the pain in the stock markets.

Systemic failure of the large speculative derivative positions of major banks and mortgage
institutions is still very possible (and perhaps developing right now) should international
investors start to withdraw from the US.
The first obvious signs of losses in Junk Bonds and derivatives are starting to appear visibly
for some institutions.


GDP:

Advance GDP measures for the Q3 came at a low 2.7% annual rate of increase, much less
than our forecast of 4.3% - 4.5% range.
It appears, that although productivity came as expected, and despite Q3 having had the
highest quarterly M3 expansion of the year, reduced business and government spending and
investment were key to the low numbers.

Productivity came in as expected and close to our forecasts of 3.5 - 3.7, at 3.8 %.

Under the circumstances Q4 productivity and GDP appear to be poised to come in below the
yearly average of 4.1 and 4.5% rate respectively.
Barring any unforeseen circumstances Productivity and GDP will not exceed 3%.


Public Debt for October 2000:

Lower debt from 5,674 billion to 5,657 billion. The debt was lower by 17 billion during the last
month. The Treasury has apparently been servicing the growth of debt by about 55 billion
during the month.

Debt appears to be on the uptrend for November.



Trade and Current Account Deficit:

From last month's snapshot in red:

Since August is an odd month, Septembers Deficit Forecast stands at $32.9 billion.
September data will come AFTER the elections....
Japan has already reported in September's data that Total Trade surplus (Japan's govt.
agencies being more productive than their counterparts in the US) is up 10.5% from August
and down 3.2% with the EU. Most of the increase in Japan's surplus then will hit
non-released September US deficit data.

Well, it turns out that the Goods and Trade Deficit exceeded even this forecast and it came
at a bone chilling $34.3 billion for September.
And this is on top of an upwardly revised August deficit to $29.8 billion from $29.4 billion.

The goods deficit with Canada increased from $4.3 billion to $4.7 billion.
The goods deficit with Mexico increased from $1.9 billion to $2.7 billion.
The goods deficit with Japan DECREASED from $6.8 billion to $6.1 billion.
The goods deficit with W. Europe decreased from $5.2 billion to $4.4 billion.
The goods deficit with China increased from $8.6 billion to $8.7 billion.

The goods deficit with OPEC countries decreased from $4.4 billion to $4.2 billion.

October's deficit should come in at a minimum of $33.5 billion and perhaps as large as $34.5
billion, as Japans predicted effect did not hit the numbers in September. Therefore, they
should hit in October.

As it is now AFTER THE ELECTIONS, the cleanup in the accounts will hit with full force in
Q4. You can bank on it, as the Central Bankers are doing right now.

The yearly projected deficit is back up at $375 billion, from $356 billion projected last month.


Inflation:

The Crude Raw materials in the producing chain have increased in price 23.42 % from
October 99 to October 2000. October saw an increase of 3.38 %.

Energy Crude materials have increased in the same period 58.40 %, and they are up 130.33
% since January 1999. (And as our favorite VP would say:"You ain't seen nothing yet")

All commodities inflation is running at 5.79 % from October 1999 to October 2000, despite
the manipulation of the precious metals markets.

The PPI (Producer Price Index) for Jan - October 2000 average stands at 4.17 % a year for
2000.
Core PPI stands at 0.96 % YTD.
October figure stands at 0.4 % rate increase.
The CPI (Consumer Price Index) for Jan - October 2000 average stands at 3.52 % a year.
Core CPI stands at 2.79 % YTD.
October figure stands at 0.2 % rate increase.


Money Supply Inflation for January-October is running at 8.2 % a year.

ECI Q3 (Employment Cost Indicator) was up 0.9 % or 4.45 % a year.


The Future Inflation Gauge of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, an
index that Mr. Alan Greenspan is known to monitor, weakened in October again, for a 6th
consecutive month.

Its smoothed annualized growth rate dropped to -6.4% in October, down from -2.7% in
September, down from 1.5% in August, 3.7 % in July, 7.5 % in June, after 8.3% in May,
14.4% in April, 13.7% in March, 14.2% in February, 14.7% in January and 15.9% in
December 1999.



Total Debt and Derivatives:

Total debt for the 10 months from end Nov 1999 to September 2000 was up 4.85 % or 5.81 %
yearly rate from 17,273 billion to 18,110 billion. (Fed Statistics).
This puts the average debt per person at the amazing quantity of $65,650.
Per capita debt increase $225 this month, same from last month trend.

The burden of the household debt stands at 13.7% of disposable income for Q2, up from
13.6% in Q1.
The last time we saw these highs was the 4th quarter of 1987.

Big banks continue to build their derivative positions in the gold market at an alarming rate.
The gold paper market has its days numbered.

Sooner rather than later, the Force Majeure will be called and paper gold will default as
investors flock to demand physical in exchange for their paper.



Precious Metals:

Gold has been stuck in the $265 range for a while, but it appears that short covering has
started. So far it appears to be an orderly process; however, it should not be long until it
becomes disorderly and gold starts to skyrocket.
The recent news of CB's discovering the benefits of gold in tough financial times will surely
initiate interest on the metal.

Long paper holders will be surprised when they cannot change their paper for gold when the
price rallies.

Foreign gold held at the FED has been dropping, according to their reports.

From January to September 2000 there have been outflows of 230.5 tons.
September gold outflow was 39.77 tons.
Total foreign earmarked gold left in custody: 7,086 tons.
Gold outflow from January 96 to September 2000: 1,533 tons.

Silver demand from the public, as a savings instrument, will skyrocket in Mexico from the
second week of November onward.
The Bank of Mexico has launched an aggressive campaign to promote silver as a savings of
wealth for the future.

This is a very significant event, since Mexico is the world's largest silver producer and any
silver demand by the public in Mexico will detract from available supplies to industry.

The author estimates that demand of 10 to 20 million ounces will be set in motion in Mexico
for the next 2 months, and this is without any large investor coming in to the market.
Heightened Gold demand, due to the silver effect should be around 500,000 ounces.
Most likely, this will induce short covering in the silver market of the US.
Therefore, prices should begin to rise slowly and then skyrocket.


Currencies:

The Euro recovered slightly after repeated intervention by the ECB to the 0.86 level, up from
the 0.83 level. It is now back in the 0.85 range.

The FED held its policy on interest rates, with no increase of Fed Funds at 6.5% and
maintained inflationary bias, due to high oil prices and high level of employment.

The ECB did not raise and maintained their Refinancing rate at 4.75%.

The BOJ did not raise and maintained the overnight call rate at 0.25% during October.


Oil:

Independent and reputed Oil business commentators confirm the validity of the author's
suspicion in his last essay"A Christmas Present from the Administration - $50 Oil Around
the Corner", that the SPR oil being released is quietly replacing at least part of the
"American" production.

The US is apparently squandering the SPR reserves, and at the same time, hurting the small
independent producers with their own tax money.

All indications are that as soon as the US starts to lower oil imports quotas due to the SPR
releases, in an effort not to hurt domestic providers, OPEC would be ready to cut production
to compensate for the SPR oil. This would cause a commotion in the world energy markets,
therefore the small independents will keep on suffering.
And if there are further SPR releases, they stand to be shut down.
The SPR release has boomeranged all the way back, as predicted in"Energy Market
Intervention - The Oil Weapon - The Gold Weapon",
http://www.LeMetropoleCafe.com/pfv.cfm?pfvID=1169

The DOE managed to bring oil down from $37 to $31 for a couple of weeks, at the cost of
hampering domestic production. Oil is back up now on the $35 range and getting higher.
And Gas keeps marching steadily to the 8 1/2 target.....


Iraqui oil exports have averaged 2.2 MMBD for the last 4 weeks.
However, last week they only averaged 1.5 MMBD and this weeks they have shut down
exports for 3 days.
Iraq has asked crude buyers to pay 50 cents a barrel over the official selling price for its
crude into an account outside United Nations control, which lifters say is not feasible.
State oil marketer SOMO informed all lifters a few days ago that companies failing to comply
with its request from December 1 would forfeit the right to new contracts.
Traders are closely watching developments after Iraq canceled at least one December crude
cargo to a European customer. Industry speculation is that the action is tied to Iraq's recent
demand that customers pay a 50 cents-a-barrel premium over U.N. pricing from Dec. 1 or
lose their allocation. The premium is to be deposited into a separate bank account outside of
U.N. control.


Shell declared Force Majeure after it had difficulties meeting export commitments after
unrest in Nigeria. Apparently they are back up on line again.

Saudi has notified the oil majors that lift its oil that it is cutting their allocations for December
by 10%.
There is speculation that 10% will go to Asia.

Natural Gas keeps increasing in price as an early winter is ravaging already low inventories
in the US.
The same applies to crude oil. The US DOE is expected to release more SPR oil in an
attempt to contain oil in its march to the $50 per barrel level.

As Politics and Oil don't mix well, in the opinion of the author, it is possible the $50 will be
just an intermediate target, if the current political mess and irresponsibility in the USA
continues.

To give you a feel on the current DOE thinking (there appear to be a lot of rocket scientists
there as of late ) please keep reading:


"Richardson: Firm Oil Prices Needed
Updated 3:55 PM ET November 18, 2000

Bill Richardson, U.S. Secretary of Energy, Right, Reads
his... (AP) By ANWAR FARUQI, Associated Press Writer

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (AP) - U.S. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson said Saturday that
oil-producing countries should consider boosting output to moderate prices, but Iran's oil
minister suggested that Washington's sanctions against some exporters were to blame for
market instability.

World economies need stable oil prices of between $20 and $25 a barrel, Richardson told
reporters at the seventh International Energy Forum in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. He said
current prices of more than $30 a barrel - heights unseen in a decade - were"excessively
high."

He acknowledged that demand has been high, but he said:"There is a supply problem. Crude
stocks are much too low."

Richardson said he hopes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will not decide
to cut production at their January meeting, saying"our position is that OPEC countries
consider an increase in production."

But in a clear reference to U.S. economic sanctions against his country, Iranian Oil Minister
Bijan Namdar Zangeneh said"unilateral economic restrictions" were to blame for market
instability and high prices.

"Political pressure on oil-producing countries has led to the imbalance and inconsistency of
investments in energy supply systems, to the effect that we now witness imbalance and
unstable price of oil in recent months," Zangeneh said.

Iran has said that all OPEC nations, except Saudi Arabia, are producing as much oil as they
can, and that new supplies are not possible without investment and technologies that are
banned by U.S. sanctions on Iran, Iraq and Libya, which possess large petroleum reserves.

"I do not agree that sanctions are to blame for the oil shortages," Richardson later said in an
interview with The Associated Press."It's a supply problem."

Richardson said he believed the Democrats would pursue the same policy toward Iran if Al
Gore became the next U.S. president. He said he could not comment on U.S. policy toward
Iran if George W. Bush were to become the next president of the United
States.......................End."

In a nutshell, Secretary Richardson, when confronted by the reality of under-investment in
the oil field, perhaps related in some degree to US sanctions in certain countries as Iraq, Iran
and Libya, prefers to explain high oil prices as a"supply problem", but he refuses to explain
the cause of the supply problem.

North America gained 4 drilling rigs in October as compared to September.
Total rotary rig count stands now at 1395.
Canada lost 28 down to 328 while the US added 32 rigs up to 1067.
Gas rigs in the US increased 7 to 840 and Oil rigs increased 26 to 226.
US rig increases are concentrated in Oklahoma for this month.
International rotary Rig count stood at 727 in October, up 13 from September figures.
Latin America was up 6, Africa up 3, Middle East up 4, Europe up 1 and Asia Pacific down 1.

Drilling activity is increasing slowly internationally as pressure to increase production is
brought on the producers. The initial effort for drilling now is to maintain dropping production
from natural field declination.

Finally, the weather is very cold in the US actually, and will continue to be so for the
foreseeable future. This will put more pressure on oil prices as heating oil stocks diminish
alarmingly.

And as our favorite VP would say:"You ain't seen nothing yet".




"Azteca de Oro"







<center>

<HR>

</center>

Thread gesperrt

 

gesamter Thread:

• Geld aus dem Nichts - R.Deutsch, 22.11.2000, 09:53
  • Re: Geld aus dem Nichts / Schön, ich will's auch endlich klären... - JüKü, 22.11.2000, 10:26
    • Re: Geld aus dem Nichts / Schön, ich will's auch endlich klären... DANKE! - dottore, 22.11.2000, 11:58
      • Re: Geld aus dem Nichts / dottore, ist mein Modell besser? - SchlauFuchs, 22.11.2000, 12:13
      • Re: Geld aus dem Nichts / Na also - da haben wirs doch - R.Deutsch, 22.11.2000, 13:01
        • Re: Geld aus dem Nichts / Na also - da haben wirs doch - dottore, 22.11.2000, 14:51
    • Re: Geld aus dem Nichts / Schön, ich will's auch endlich klären... - R.Deutsch, 22.11.2000, 12:11
      • Re: Geld aus dem Nichts / NEIN, können sie nicht - JüKü, 22.11.2000, 13:28
        • Re: NEIN, können sie nicht / Giralgeld"volumen" - liegt's am Tank? - dottore, 22.11.2000, 14:32
          • Re: NEIN, können sie nicht / Giralgeld"volumen" - liegt's am Tank? - R.Deutsch, 22.11.2000, 15:39
            • Re: NEIN, können sie nicht / Giralgeld"volumen" - liegt's am Tank? - JüKü, 22.11.2000, 15:55
            • Re: NEIN, können sie nicht / Giralgeld"volumen" - liegt's am Tank? - JüKü, 22.11.2000, 15:55
              • Re: NEIN, können sie nicht / Giralgeld"volumen" - liegt's am Tank? - Liated M.I. Lefuet, 22.11.2000, 16:24
              • Re:...@Jükü.....NEIN, können sie nicht / Giralgeld"volumen" - liegt's am Tank? - Liated M.I. Lefuet, 22.11.2000, 16:25
          • Re: NEIN, können sie nicht / Giralgeld"volumen" - liegt's am Tank? - Liated M.I. Lefuet, 22.11.2000, 15:59
            • Re: NEIN, können sie nicht / Giralgeld"volumen" - liegt's am Tank? - Jochen, 22.11.2000, 20:01
              • Re: @Jochen - Liated M.I. Lefuet, 22.11.2000, 22:24
                • Re: @Jochen /Liated bitte helfen! - nereus, 23.11.2000, 11:52
                  • Re: @Jochen /Liated bitte helfen! - Jochen, 23.11.2000, 20:47
                    • Re: @Jochen /Liated bitte helfen! - nereus, 23.11.2000, 21:50
                      • Re: @Jochen /Liated bitte helfen! - Jochen, 24.11.2000, 08:23
                        • Re: @Jochen /Liated bitte helfen! - nereus, 24.11.2000, 10:00
                          • Re: @Jochen /Liated bitte helfen! - Jochen, 24.11.2000, 10:54
                            • Re: @Jochen /Liated bitte helfen! - nereus, 24.11.2000, 11:48
                              • Re: @Jochen /Liated bitte helfen! - Jochen, 24.11.2000, 18:34
                                • Re: @Jochen /Liated bitte helfen! - nereus, 25.11.2000, 01:54
  • Re: Geld aus dem Nichts - So doch nun auch nicht. - SchlauFuchs, 22.11.2000, 10:59
    • Re: Geld aus dem Nichts - So doch nun auch nicht. - Frodo, 22.11.2000, 11:22
      • Re: Geld aus dem Nichts - So doch nun auch nicht. - SchlauFuchs, 22.11.2000, 11:36
        • Re: Geld aus dem Nichts - So doch nun auch nicht. - Luschi, 22.11.2000, 11:47
          • Re: Geld aus dem Nichts - So doch nun auch nicht. - SchlauFuchs, 22.11.2000, 12:07
        • Re: Geld aus dem Nichts - So doch nun auch nicht. - Frodo, 22.11.2000, 12:27
          • Re: Geld aus dem Nichts - So doch nun auch nicht. - SchlauFuchs, 22.11.2000, 12:59
            • Re: Geld aus dem Nichts - So doch nun auch nicht. - Frodo, 22.11.2000, 13:42
              • Re: Geld aus dem Nichts - Bald haben wir's - SchlauFuchs, 22.11.2000, 13:59
                • Re: Geld aus dem Nichts - Bald haben wir's - Frodo, 22.11.2000, 15:30
                  • Dieser Thead wandert vom Zentralbankgeld zu meinem WirtschaftsSimulator ab. - SchlauFuchs, 22.11.2000, 15:51
                    • Re: @SchlauFuchs - JüKü, 22.11.2000, 20:19
                      • Re: @SchlauFuchs - dottore, 22.11.2000, 22:21
                      • Re: @SchlauFuchs - dottore, 22.11.2000, 22:21
                        • Re: @SchlauFuchs - SchlauFuchs, 23.11.2000, 09:01
                          • Re: @SchlauFuchs / Frage bzw. Vorschlag - JüKü, 23.11.2000, 09:48
                            • Re: @SchlauFuchs / Frage bzw. Vorschlag - SchlauFuchs, 23.11.2000, 10:18
                          • Re: @SchlauFuchs - jefra, 23.11.2000, 11:11
                            • Re: @SchlauFuchs - SchlauFuchs, 23.11.2000, 11:24
                              • Re: @SchlauFuchs - Hans Castorp, 23.11.2000, 12:28
                                • offtopic: Java contra C - SchlauFuchs, 23.11.2000, 12:51
                                  • Re: offtopic: Java contra C - Hans Castorp, 23.11.2000, 13:08
                                    • Re: offtopic: Java contra C - SchlauFuchs, 23.11.2000, 13:20
          • Re: Geld aus dem Nichts - So doch nun auch nicht. Schuldscheine aus Malawi? - dottore, 22.11.2000, 14:41
            • @dottore: Danke für die Ergänzung (owT) - Frodo, 22.11.2000, 15:17
      • Re: Geld aus dem Nichts - So doch nun auch nicht. - Oldy, 22.11.2000, 19:01
    • Re: Geld aus dem Nichts - Mindestreserven schaffen es leider auch nicht! - dottore, 22.11.2000, 14:11
      • :-) Jetzt ist meine Welt wieder in Ordnung. Und ein offtopic. - SchlauFuchs, 22.11.2000, 14:45
        • Re::-) Jetzt ist meine Welt wieder in Ordnung. - nereus, 22.11.2000, 15:15
          • Re::-) Jetzt ist meine Welt wieder in Ordnung. - SchlauFuchs, 22.11.2000, 18:52
            • Re::-) Jetzt ist meine Welt wieder in Ordnung. - nereus, 22.11.2000, 20:45
  • Re: Geld aus dem Nichts - HG, 22.11.2000, 12:02
    • Re: Geld aus dem Nichts - Oldy, 22.11.2000, 17:57