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Mix-Ansicht- Yukos von FT.com - EM-financial, 29.05.2004, 00:28
Yukos von FT.com
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Published: May 28 2004 13:17 | Last Updated: May 28 2004 13:17
Yukos faces an uncertain future, but the final outcome looks increasingly stark: capitulation or bankruptcy. Both outcomes could lead to greater state control, but the Kremlin's ultimate intent is unclear.
If the Kremlin wants to force Mikhail Khodorkovsky and other leading shareholders to relinquish control of the oil group, it took a step nearer its goal this week. The Moscow Arbitration Court, in a one-sided hearing, upheld a $3.5bn tax claim against Yukos. It is clear that the legal system will be compliant in pushing the company to the brink of bankruptcy. The ruling also sends a message to Mr Khodorkovsky about the treatment he can expect as his own court case finally gets under way.
But even if Mr Khodorkovsky were feeling inclined to capitulate, the Kremlin might be in no mood to listen if its aim is forced liquidation followed by renationalisation. Yukos expects further tax claims for the years since 2000, with estimates of the total tax bill, including penalties, as high as $9bn-$10bn. If the Kremlin demands immediate payment and maintains an injunction on asset sales, Yukos admits it could face bankruptcy. This, however, requires the Kremlin to follow an irrational course to its logical conclusion, inflicting severe damage on Russia's standing in international capital markets.
Yukos shares now trade at a 45 per cent discount to a discounted cash flow valuation, based on a long-term Brent crude price of $22.50. This may prove attractive for brave souls, and logic argues against the stock ending up completely worthless. But, with room to push Yukos even closer to the brink, the discount could get still wider before a final resolution.
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