Re: nun aber wirklich deutsch auf die schnelle:... Teil 2

verfasst von igelei, 06.06.2004, 02:24

-->>>> Our purchased Congress has again thwarted the will of the American
>>> people. It has summarily dismissed Eliot Spitzer's exposures and
>>more than
>>> a dozen Congressional hearings on five bills that should have
>>reformed the
>>> worst mutual fund scandals in sixty years. Congress has again
>>ignored all
>>> the evidence and accepted the payoffs from the fund and brokerage
>>> industries, leaving 95 million investors in the hands of these
>>greedy
>>> crooks. These are the same investment professionals who lost 43% of
>>> investors' assets between 2000 and 2002, while they raised their
>>> compensation 25%. Incidentally, for new readers we got all of our
>>> subscribers out of the market in April 2000. Congress' lack of
>>action
>>> allows these crooks who control massive financial assets to continue
>>> skimming off the top. Lean on your representatives in Washington
>>and if
>>> they do not listen make sure they are not reelected.

ein gekaufter Kongress hat den Willen der Amerikaner ignoriert, größter Fondsskandal in 60 Jahren, Ergebnis, die gleichen Leute, die 43% des Investorenvermögens pulverisiert haben, haben gleichzeitig ihren Verdienst dabei um 25% erhöht. Kongress erlaubt ihnen weiterzumachen.

>>> An investigation into one of the biggest corruption scandals in
>>> history is being hampered by the US-led administration in Iraq
>>according
>>> to our Congress and officials in Baghdad. The actual review of the
>>records
>>> has been delayed for weeks and documents are being altered or
>>destroyed.
>>> At least $11 billion has gone into the pockets of 270 people and
>>> organizations. The elitist, Mr. Bremer, pro-counsel of Iraq,

Nächster Skandal: US-Administration im Irak, 11 Mrd. Dollar in die Taschen von 270 Leuten und Organisationen. Aussage werden wochenlang zurückgehalten Dokumente gefälscht oder vernichtet.

>>intervened
>>> in March, saying he would not release funds to pay KPMG, the
>>auditor,
>>> which had already made substantial progress in locating documents
>>in Iraq,
>>> unless the contract was put out to tender. This is interesting,
>>inasmuch
>>> as few contracts have been put out to tender in Iraq. All the
>>business
>>> went to neocon cronies and other financial contributors. KPMG was
>>finally
>>> appointed and will be paid about $6 million for the effort. Then

KPMG machte Fortschritte (beim Dokumente lokalisieren) dann entschied Paul Bremer, das die Bezahlung nicht freigegeben wird, der Vertrag wurde aufgelöst, wie auch ein paar andere. Dafür gehen jetzt 6 Mios an KPMG. Die CPA(??) entschied, ihre eigenen Auditors zu nehmen. Viele Verträge gingen an die Kumpane der Neocons.

>>the CPA
>>> decided it would appoint its own auditors to investigate
>>allegations and
>>> Ernst and Young were set to work as well. Many in Congress are angry
>>> because it is obvious Bush and the neocons are trying to destroy
>>all the
>>> evidence. The IGC, with the help of KPMG, had already located
>>billions of
>>> dollars that came out of illicit oil-for-food profits in Middle
>>East bank
>>> accounts. Americans, because of this theft, more of your hard-
>>earned tax
>>> dollars had to be spent.

Ernst and Young macht stattdessen weiter. KPMG hat aber Mrd. Dollar in (Mittelost)Banken aus Oil-for-food Profiten gefunden. Der Amerikaner soll aber weiter Steuerdollars zahlen.

>>> Surprisingly Alan Greenspan is going to stay as Chairman of the
>>Fed, as he
>>> was re-nominated by George W. Bush.
>>> Forrester Research says it expects 1.6 million office jobs to have
>>> moved to India and other foreign countries by the year 2015. Office
>>and
>>> computer jobs will lead the march, costing 3.4 million more US jobs
>>and
>>> more than $151 billion in wages. 542,000 computer jobs are next on
>>the
>>> list, followed by 356,000 businesses and 259,000 management jobs.
>>Overall,
>>> about 6.4% of jobs in vulnerable categories will be outsourced in
>>the next
>>> 11 years.
Are you listening America? Your jobs, your livelihood, the
>>> future of your children are being destroyed by the elitists to make
>>> America a second world country. Climb all over your members of
>>Congress.
>>> If you do not, your family will either starve to death or you will
>>be
>>> forced to fight in the streets.

Überraschung: Greenspan erneut vorgeschlagen von Bushi.. Forrester Resarch erwartet: 1,6 Mio Bürojobs nach Indien u. a. bis 2015, Computerjobs 3,4 Mio was 151 Mrd. in Löhnen bedeutet. Etwa 6,4% in gefährdeten Kategorien wirds in den nächsten 11 Jahren erwischen (und Amerika zu einem Zweite-Welt-Land machen). Strassenkampfsituation.


>>> The BIS derivative survey reveals that, as of 12/03, the global
>>> derivatives market amounted to $234 trillion of notional contracts,
>>of
>>> which 75% or $175 trillion are interest related, and 80% or $142
>>trillion
>>> of these are on the OTC market. That is 2.7 times higher than when
>>LTCM
>>> blew up in 1998. This means the global economy produced $22 in
>>> interrelated risk transactions for every $1.00 of estimated growth
>>in its
>>> physical counterpart in 2003, which denotes a financial system
>>totally out
>>> of control. After reading this, if you do not think we are in
>>trouble
>>> there is something certainly wrong with your thinking process.

an 12/03 der globale Derivatemarkt war 234 Billionen $ - 75% davon Zinskontrakte und 80% (vom gesamten) am Over The Counter Markt, 2,7 mal höher als 1998. Für jeden Dollar (Wachstum) in der Realität gibts 22$ in Derivaterisiken, Finanzsystem total ausser Kontrolle.

>>> The NASD reprimanded Morgan Stanley, Bear Stearns and Deutsche Bank
>>> and ordered them to collectively pay a fine of more than $15
>>million. They
>>> gave special clients shares of hot IPO's. For this the banks
>>accepted
>>> outrageous commissions. That is where all these hot IPO's went that
>>> couldn't get any of.

Morgan Stanley, Bear Stearns und Deutsche Bank haben grad mal zusammen 15 Mio. Strafe für die IPO-Mogeleien gezahlt. Aber verbrecherische Gebühren dafür kassiert. (die sicher mahr als 15 Mios waren)

>>> As the current account deficit approaches $600 billion, the US needs
>>> to attract a net $2.7 billion of overseas capital every single day.
>>> Overall, debt stands at 163% of GDP. This is beyond imagination.
>>> They once put bookmakers in jail, as gambling was once considered a
>>> vice. Today it is a savior for many states that are rolling the
>>dice and
>>> hoping lotteries, slot machines, and casinos will create income,
>>jobs and
>>> healthier budgets. Hesitant to raise taxes, particularly in an
>>election
>>> year, 24 states have looked at gaming proposals this year to boost
>>> revenues and help pay for education, health care and other basic
>>> necessities that states provide. Today there is gambling in 23
>>states>>> which have casinos owned by American Indian tribes. Gambling is
>>insidious
>>> and there is no question it draws crime. It is a tough trade-off but
>>> unfortunately people are going to gamble anyway, so the proceeds
>>going to
>>> good causes aren't all that bad.

aktuelles Haushaltsdefizit 600 Mrd., die USA brauchen jeden Tag 2,7 Mrd. Auslandskapital, Schuldenstant 163% vom BIP. Früher wurden Buchmacher eingesperrt, im Wahljahr ist es aber schlecht mit Steuererhöhungen, also wird Glücksspiel etc. zugelassen, kreiert Steuereinahmen...


>>> Apprehension continues to grow as it becomes very obvious that the
>>> Fed has to raise interest rates. They would have been raised by now
>>but
>>> this is an election year and the Fed is illegally doing all it can
>>to
>>> assure the reelection of George W. Bush and his neocons. Treasury
>>debt is
>>> spiraling upward and the Fed's creation of aggregates is exploding.
>>That
>>> has caused real market interest rates to rise 1-3/16% over the past
>>two
>>> months, which has caused large bond market losses. This has led to
>>capital
>>> repatriation by foreigners in anticipation of even higher rates.

Eigentlich wären Zinserhöungen lange fällig, aber es ist Wahljahr und die FED will die Wiederwahl von Bush und den Neocons. Reale Zinsraten sind 1 3/16 in zwei Monaten rauf.

>>Just as
>>> powerful has been the unwinding of the carry trade, which has
>>caused the
>>> dollar to strengthen in an unusual manner. Most professionals do
>>not as
>>> yet realize it but this is the beginning of the popping of the bond
>>bubble
>>> and the beginning of the re-decent of the dollar. As the carry trade
>>> unwinds and moves to cash, other bubbles will burst in real estate
>>and in
>>> the stock market, both of which will not occur in a visible way
>>until
>>> after the election. The carry trade is when you borrow money at 1%
>>and buy
>>> Treasuries at 4%. If interest rates are moving higher, you are
>>taking
>>> capital losses in the underlying bonds, which neutralize your gains
>>or
>>> cause you losses. The exit from the carry trade is in anticipation
>>of
>>> higher interest rates. The bubbles will break so fast after the
>>election
>>> that peoples' heads will be spinning. They just will not believe
>>what is>>> happening to them as Societe General, the Paris banks says,"We see
>>a
>>> confluence of ominous events. A slowdown in US economic demand may
>>be
>>> unavoidable - cooling Chinese demand - under weighting global
>>> manufacturing demand." Just add in higher interest rates and you
>>have the
>>> beginning of a horror story.

Das ist Beginn des Bondmarktcrashs, was andere Bubbles anstechen wird, Aktien und Housingbubble. Aber nicht vor der Wahl, sondern kurz danach. Rückgang der Nachfrage in den USA löst Rückgang in China aus etc. dazu Zinserhöhungen und du hast die Horrorstory (Beginn).


>>> Yes, there is a mountain of debt and yes, a credit bust is going to
>>> happen in the US, but not until the election is over. The Fed has
>>the
>>> power to temporarily delay the events, particularly in the stock
>>market by
>>> increasing funds available via the repo market. The tidal wave of
>>credit
>>> to US households, particularly in mortgages, home equity loans and
>>credit
>>> cards will not go onerously up in cost until later this year. As the
>>> credit flow contracts due to higher costs, borrowers will pay down
>>debt,
>>> or go bankrupt. That will slow the economy forcing house prices
>>down,
>>> creating a loss of equity and ending the wealth affect. The ultimate
>>> result will be a depression worse than the 1930's. We would be
>>surprised
>>> if the Fed raises rates on June 29-30. We expect them to rise in
>>August.

Ganze Ablauf geschildert, aber festgelegt, dass es nach der Wahl knallt. FED wird im Juni nix machen, erst im August erste Zinserhöhung.

>>> From 1993 to 1995 rates doubled but the debt situation was 20% of
>>what it
>>> is today. For starters, we expect a move up in interest rates in
>>2004-2005
>>> from 3.65% on the 10-year Treasury note to 7-1/2%. If the Fed
>>continues
>>> its aggregate creation at current levels, which they say they will
>>and
>>> then some, then we can expect much higher rates as inflation soars
>>past
>>> 12%.

von 93-95 wurde die Zinsrate vedoppelt, die Schuldensituation war 20% im Vergleich zu heute. Erwartet eine Erhöhung bei den 10jährigen von 3,65 auf 7,5% und Infla 12%.


>>Remember that in 2000, a 1.75% increase in rates brought the
>>market
>>> down 43% and NASDAQ down 70%. Can you imagine what a four-point
>>increase
>>> will do? The indications of excesses in prices are everywhere even
>>though
>>> our government lies about it. Looking at the value of residential
>>real
>>> estate as a percentage of personal income shows the ratio to be
>>182%,
>>> which is over 20% higher than its last peak in the late 1980's.
>>Mortgages
>>> are about to rise back up to historical levels. The 20-year average
>>has
>>> been 8.6% and we predict 8-1/2% by the end of 2005 and even higher
>>rates
>>> after that if the Fed continues to pump over a trillion a year into
>>the
>>> economy. However, home equity is now 55% versus the 20-year average
>>of
>>> 61%. Service of this debt is at a much higher level than in years
>>past.
>>> Plus, today some 30% of mortgages are ARMS, which have adjustable
>>rates,
>>> and 45% of mortgages are sub-par. Loans that should never have been
>>made
>>> to begin with. It should be noted that mortgage related assets now
>>account
>>> for 59% of banks' earning assets, up from 30% in the mid-eighties.
>>That
>>> means bank earnings will plunge next year. Even with zero percent
>>> financing, automakers see declining sales. A four-point rise in
>>interest
>>> rates will force the end of zero financing and auto and truck sales
>>will

2000 haben 1,75% Zinsanhebung -43% im Gesamtmarkt und 70% nasse im Nasdaq gebracht, was werden wohl 4% rauf bei den Zinsen auslösen? Sieht Ende 2005 8,5% bei den Hypos, etwa 30% sind dabei flexibel verzinst (vom Gesamtvolume). 59% der Bankprofite hängen am Hypogeschäft, daraus folgt Gewinneinbruch 2005 (mangels Neugeschäft). 4% Zinsplus bedeuten ausserdem Ende der 0% Finanzierung bei den Autos, wiederum Einbruch der Verkaufszahlen.

Oki, lagt aber erstmal... N8

MfG
igelei

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gesamter Thread:

• alles für eine lange Nacht: aus einem US-Forum geholt - wo ist die Brille? - Emerald, 05.06.2004, 22:49
  • Re: Uff....worum gehts denn.. (wenigsten so ungefähr) (o.T.) - MattB, 05.06.2004, 23:05
    • Re: Ach Gott, wieder das Gelbe... - MattB, 05.06.2004, 23:25
  • Ja, Emerald, erkläre uns bitte auf Deutsch in 10 Sätzen, was uns so erwartet... - Prosciutto, 05.06.2004, 23:08
    • Re: Ja, Emerald, erkläre uns bitte auf Deutsch in 10 Sätzen, was uns so erwartet... - Emerald, 05.06.2004, 23:16
      • Hmm, ziemlich interessant, mal schauen. (o.Text) - Prosciutto, 05.06.2004, 23:32
  • deutsch auf die schnelle: - igelei, 05.06.2004, 23:35
    • shit zu schnell enter gedr. dauert noch!!! - igelei, 05.06.2004, 23:36
  • nun aber wirklich deutsch auf die schnelle:... - igelei, 06.06.2004, 00:15
    • Re: nun aber wirklich deutsch auf die schnelle:... - MattB, 06.06.2004, 00:25
      • Re: nun aber wirklich deutsch auf die schnelle:... - MC Muffin, 06.06.2004, 00:36
        • Re: Hinterm Mond? (o.Text) - MattB, 06.06.2004, 00:42
          • Re: Naja gucks dir doch an im Momennt haben sie nix. - Loki, 06.06.2004, 02:29
          • Re: Hinterm Mond? (o.Text) - MC Muffin, 06.06.2004, 12:00
            • Re: Hinterm Mond? (o.Text) - MC Muffin, 06.06.2004, 12:03
            • Re: Ã-l(industry) auch hinterm Mond? [Telepolis] - MattB, 10.06.2004, 11:30
    • Auf jeden Fall schon vielen Dank für deine (bisherige) Ãœbersetzung!:-)) - Prosciutto, 06.06.2004, 00:29
    • Re: nun aber wirklich deutsch auf die schnelle:... Teil 2 - igelei, 06.06.2004, 02:24
      • CPA = Coalition Provisional Authority = Verwaltung Iraks durch US/UK (o.Text) - gnom, 06.06.2004, 10:12
      • 1,2,3 fertig ist die igelei...Dankeschön für die zusammenfassende Ãœbersetzung! - Easy, 06.06.2004, 10:53
      • CPA: Certified Public Accountant - pendant zum dt. Wirtschaftsprüfertitel (o.Text) - off-shore-trader, 06.06.2004, 11:42
      • Re: nun aber wirklich deutsch auf die schnelle:... Teil 3 - igelei, 06.06.2004, 12:25
        • @igelei: Ein Riesendankeschön!!! (o.Text) - ---Elli---, 06.06.2004, 13:23
        • Re: nun aber wirklich deutsch auf die schnelle:... Teil 4 - igelei, 06.06.2004, 14:20
          • Vielen Dank fürs Ãœbersetzen! (o.Text) - daxput, 06.06.2004, 15:00
          • Re: nun aber wirklich deutsch auf die schnelle:... Teil 5 - igelei, 06.06.2004, 18:07
            • Re: einen ganz großen Dank auch von meinereinem an igelei mkT - Baldur der Ketzer, 06.06.2004, 18:47
              • hmm... wenn du ein wenig Spielgeld hast... mkT - igelei, 06.06.2004, 19:14
                • Re: hmm... wenn du ein wenig Spielgeld hast... mkT - MC Muffin, 07.06.2004, 10:21
            • Besten Dank fürs übersetzen (o.Text) - LenzHannover, 07.06.2004, 00:27
  • Re:.. lange Nacht -- durch Stripper gejagt, hoffentlich nun leichter lesbar - JoBar, 06.06.2004, 08:43