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Mix-Ansicht- @ GG US Börse - black elk, 26.11.2000, 11:24
@ GG US Börse
Hi GG,
einen wirklich zuverlässigen Nasdaqcount habe ich nicht. Nur sehe ich momentan keine Alternative, die zu deutlich höheren Kursen führt. Wir können uns genauso gut in einer komplexen wxy Korrektur seit dem ATH und aktuell die y als double zig zag befinden. Genau so gut könnten wir in einer extensierten Welle 5 von C (bzw. im Ernstfall von 3) stecken. Die SAche ist mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit noch nicht zu Ende und ich hoffe bald mehr Klarheit zu bekommen.
Hier noch ein Ausschnitt aus einer Mail die ich aus den USA bekommen habe:
Hi Andre, I looked at your charts, and I noticed that most had shown a completion of wave 3 of 5 at the 1987 top. If, as I think, the rally from either the 1987 low or possibly the 1990 low ; which the decline from July 1990 untill Oct. 1990 loked like a diagonal triangle and could possibly be the C wave of an irregular ABC for a 4th wave low from the 1987 top. I believe the rally that began from there extended in a 5th wave blowoff. I don't know if you have a long term chart of the US long bond. However, from the all time low in yields in 1946 the long term bonds have made a turn at every fibonacci year +or- a year. From the high yields in 1959 ( 13 years ) they went sideways into 1966 ( 20 years ) then yields started going up and didn't stop till 1981 ( 35 years ) and they have been trending down into the 55th year ( 2001 ) ever since. Some people think the bond prices topped in 1998, mostly because the decline looked so large and they could make a fairly reasonable 5 wave count of the decline that followed. Even if the decline was a 5 wave decline, it still could be a c wave. I know the rally that they have been making since the low after the 1998 high began with a three wave move. Hovever, the entire rally since the 1981 low in prices is a monster corrective move and can be a series of large threes. From the Sept. 1981 low every fibonacci month +or- a month has been a large turning point with the 144th month being the high in Sept. 1993. If you count months from there the same is true about a large turn happening again every fibonacci month +or- a month. The 89th month from Sept. 1993 is the 233rd month from Sept. 1981, which is Feb. 2001 and also the 55th year from 1946. It is not a kissmyass turning point. Excuse my language. But, it will be one of the largest turns we will ever witness, and in all likelyhood, the largest. Since we have been trending higher in prices in a very large channel ever since 1981, I believe it is the final top in bond prices even if it has a minor failure to the 1998 high. The sharp stock market declines cause a run up in bond prices. Consequently, because I'm POSITIVE of the bond turn In the 1st week or so in Feb. 2001 I can't think what else would cause it. Also I know that will be the last big top in bonds, so this is the only time the initial crash ( the A wave down ) can happen. The S&P500 looks like it made a 5th wave diagonal triangle from the Oct. 1998 low with a 5th wave diagonal triangle from the April 2000 low as a 5th wave failure in Sept. 2000. I think we saw a 5 wave down for a wave 1 complete on Oct. 18th. From there I think wave 2 crested on Nov. 8th, unless we just did wave the A of wave 2 and are completing the B wave now for a C wave rally into mid-Dec. If not we are in wave 3 now. Nevertheless; I think wave three bottoms on Dec. 26th, with the 5th wave bottoming in late Jan. early Feb. 2001. The long term fibonacci counts that the Elliott Wave letter showed in it's special July 2000 letter with yearly counts to the high and which also fit the Brenner Cycle couldn't fit better. Another thing; because the bottom will occur in late 2003 or early 2004, this is the only time for it to happen. Put up a quarterly chart of the S&P500 and look at the MACD turning down to cross over and the monthly chart which is already heading down, and what else can it be given the cycles.
Die Leute drüben arbeiten mit allem was die technische analyse bietet, Astro, GANN, Bradley-Modell, Fibo und Elliott. Besonders den letzen Teil der mail finde ich interessant, würde eher für das Negativscenario sprechen.
Gruß black elk
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