Too much complacency (Mark Hulbert)

verfasst von Amanito, 23.07.2004, 11:31

-->ANNANDALE, Va. (CBS.MW) -- Advisers are significantly more bullish today than they were earlier this year when the stock market was at levels similar to today's.
That is not encouraging sign, according to contrarians. It increases the likelihood that the correction that began four weeks ago has further to go.

So far, of course, that correction has been relatively modest. As judged by the Dow Jones Industrials Average ($INDU: news, chart, profile), the market's pullback has shed just 4.1 percent off the market. The broad-based Wilshire 5000 has fallen only a tad more than that, 4.2 percent.

Modest as the correction has been, however, it provides the ideal laboratory conditions in which to assess advisers' underlying mood. And the trend is unmistakable: Advisers are becoming less and less concerned about downside risk.

I base this assessment on readings of the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average equity exposure among a group of very short-term-oriented market timing newsletters. As of Thursday night's close, for example, the HSNSI stood at 23.1 percent.

It's not that this level is excessively high that concerns contrarians. It's that it is much higher than where it stood at other times earlier this year when the Dow stood at current levels.

For example, on May 25, the Dow closed at 10,118, some 68 points higher than where it closed Thursday. Yet as of that trading session's close, the HSNSI stood at minus 14.8 percent, or nearly 40 percentage points lower than its current level.

There are any of a number of ways of characterizing this significant shift in sentiment. For example, you could say that there has been an increase in bullishness among advisers over the past couple of months. Alternately, you could say that there is more complacency, or that there is less fear.

However you characterize the situation, however, it is not good news for the bulls.

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gesamter Thread:

• Too much complacency (Mark Hulbert) - Amanito, 23.07.2004, 11:31
  • Frage: wird dein Brief von Hulbert gelistet? (o.Text) - kingsolomon, 23.07.2004, 12:03
    • ist in Beobachtung, alle Updates schicke ich auch an Hulbert - Amanito, 24.07.2004, 12:11
      • Danke! - kingsolomon, 24.07.2004, 12:28