Du sollst sie haben: die langfristigen Aussichten, und erst noch von Profis!

verfasst von Emerald, 26.09.2004, 20:48

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Gold May Rise on Concern Oil Will Spur Inflation, Survey Says

Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may rise for a fourth straight week as record-high oil prices boost the precious metal's allure as a hedge against inflation, a Bloomberg survey showed.

Twenty-five of 40 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Sydney to New York on Sept. 23 and Sept. 24 advised buying gold. Seven recommended selling the metal, and eight were neutral.

The three-week rally in gold is the longest since January, as oil surged 11 percent during that period to a record closing price of $48.88 a barrel on Sept. 24. Consumer prices this year rose at a 3.7 percent annual rate through August, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent a year earlier.

``Hold on to your hats because inflation's coming,'' said Jonathan Battershill, an analyst at brokerage Hartleys Ltd. in Perth, Australia. ``Gold will provide investors with a natural hedge position'' as oil extends its rally this week, he said.

Gold futures for December delivery rose 0.5 percent last week to $409.70 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price reached a four-month high of $416.80 on Aug. 20 as oil, up 73 percent in the past year, surged to a record $49.40 a barrel.

The majority of gold investors and analysts correctly predicted the market's direction 11 times in the 23 weeks since the debut of the Bloomberg survey, including the past four weeks.

Some investors buy gold in times of inflation. Gold futures soared to $873 an ounce in 1980, when U.S. consumer prices rose 12.5 percent from the previous year. A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a commodity at a specified price and date.

Energy Rally

Crude oil may rise this week as U.S. refineries increase purchases to refill inventories that are close to a 29-year low, according to a separate Bloomberg survey of analysts.

The average retail price of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. rose 24 percent this year to $1.866. Heating oil climbed to a record last week, and natural gas surged 18 percent in the past two weeks. Commodities such as hogs, copper and coffee have gained at least 28 percent this year.

``Despite what the government says, that inflation is tame, it's very hard for people to swallow that news when they pay higher prices in grocery stores and at the pumps,'' said John Person, head financial analyst for Chicago-based Infinity Brokerage Services. ``The gold market will respond in a bullish manner.''

The Federal Reserve last week raised its overnight lending rate for banks for a third time this year to 1.75 percent. Minutes of the Fed's August meeting released last week also showed policy makers saw a need for ``significant cumulative'' increases in the lending target.

`Inflationary Bubble'

``It's surprising to me they are tightening with a war going on,'' said Frank McGhee, head gold trader at brokerage Alliance Financial LLC in Chicago. ``That shows how much they are ultimately worried about the inflationary bubble that has to be building.''

Fed Governor Edward Gramlich said on Sept. 16 that policy makers may need to act because they face the ``worst possible outcome'' should a disruption of oil supplies cause a shock to the markets, sending energy prices up and allowing inflation to take hold.

``It is virtually inevitable that shock will result in some combination of higher inflation and higher unemployment for some period of time,'' Gramlich said in a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. ``The worst possible outcome is for monetary policy makers to let inflation come loose from its moorings. That, I think, we have to avoid at all costs.''

`Farcical'

The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.1 percent in August after falling 0.1 percent in July. Excluding food and energy, the core index rose 0.1 percent for a third straight month.

``The low inflation numbers coming out of the U.S. are starting to look farcical,'' Battershill of Hartleys said. ``How can continued, elevated raw-material prices not impact the cost of fabricated and value-added products?''

Gold may rise to $425 an ounce in the next few weeks, Battershill said. The price reached a 15-year high of $433 on April 1.

Speculators increased their holdings in gold futures as oil rose, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.

Hedge funds and other large speculators bought 64,327 more gold futures contracts than they had sold as of Sept. 21, up 17 percent from the week before, the commission said on Sept. 24.



To contact the reporter on this story:
Choy Leng Yeong in Seattle at clyeong@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Steve Stroth at sstroth@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 26, 2004 13:54 EDT

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gesamter Thread:

• Was nimmt der steigende Ã-lpreis vorweg? Doppel-Spitze oder 65 US$/b? - El Sheik, 26.09.2004, 13:57
  • Re: Was nimmt der steigende Ã-lpreis vorweg? Doppel-Spitze oder 65 US$/b? - LeCoquinus, 26.09.2004, 14:21
  • Re: Was nimmt der steigende Ã-lpreis vorweg? Doppel-Spitze oder 65 US$/b? - Euklid, 26.09.2004, 14:52
    • Re: Was nimmt der steigende Ã-lpreis vorweg? - Euklid - - Elli -, 26.09.2004, 14:56
      • Re: Was nimmt der steigende Ã-lpreis vorweg? eine sehr starke Inflation - Poseidon, 26.09.2004, 15:55
        • Re: Was nimmt der steigende Ã-lpreis vorweg? eine sehr starke Inflation - - Elli -, 26.09.2004, 16:03
          • Re: Ein steigender Ã-lpreis ist für die USA zwingend erforderlich, - André, 26.09.2004, 16:42
            • Aber Insider-Kommentare, z.B. Paul Volcker - El Sheik, 26.09.2004, 17:03
        • Du sollst sie haben: die langfristigen Aussichten, und erst noch von Profis! - Emerald, 26.09.2004, 20:48
    • Re: dann kaufe ich wieder Holzeimer und Weidenkörbe..... owT - ottoasta, 26.09.2004, 19:55
    • Re: Was nimmt der steigende Ã-lpreis vorweg? Doppel-Spitze oder 65 US$/b? - Elmarion, 28.09.2004, 14:23