Evidence for Peak Oil mounts

verfasst von Sorrento, 03.10.2004, 03:14

-->Hallo,

gerade ist frisch bei mir folgendes eingetroffen:

Evidence for Peak Oil mounts - by John Attarian


Readily accessible evidence is piling up that a global oil peak cannot be far off. Analysis of the June 2004 BP Statistical Review of World Energy and historical oil production data reveals that:

(1) All regions except Africa have already passed through their peaks: North America (1985), Europe and Eurasia
(1987), the Middle East (2000), Asia Pacific (2000), and South and Central America (2002).

(2) Of the 48 largest oil-producing countries which BP lists, which account for at least 98 percent of world oil extraction, only 17 were past their peaks as of 1993, but 31 were past peak as of 2002, not counting Denmark and Angola, which may have peaked that year.

(3) Decline has set in among many major producers. In each year 1993-1997, at least 30 major producing countries showed output increases. The tables have turned. Output declined in 29 major countries in 2001, in 27 in 2002, and in 22 in 2003. Yet oil prices in this period were much higher than in 1993-1997, and rising. So was consumption. This, surely, is a strong sign that economic forces alone do not govern how much oil is extracted - and that geological reality, i.e., resource finitude and depletion, is starting to take over.

(4) Depletion is also very substantial. The total output decline among major producers was -2,584 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in 1999, -551 kb/d in 2000, -1,461 kb/d in 2001, -2,187 kb/d in 2002, and (not counting war-disrupted Iraq, clearly a special case) -1,168 kb/d in 2003. Again, this is in the face of high and rising prices. These declines were, of course, offset by increases by other major producers: +1,297 kb/d in 1999, +3,176 kb/d in 2000, +1,269 kb/d in 2001, +1,726 kb/d in 2002, and +4,502 kb/d in 2003. This yields net aggregate output changes of -1,297 kb/d in 1999, +2,625 kb/d in 2000, -192 kb/d in 2001, -461 kb/d in 2002, and +3,334 kb/d in 2003. By contrast, in 1993-1998 the average annual net aggregate output change among the 48 largest producers was positive every year, exceeding 1,000 kb/d in five years out of six, and averaging 1,289 kb/d. All this indicates that world oil output has reached a
bumpy plateau.

(5) 2003’s 3,334 kb/d net increase among the major countries is less impressive than it looks. Almost all of it (+3,158 kb/d) was in just five countries: Saudi Arabia (+1,153 kb/d), Russia (+845 kb/d), Iran (+432 kb/d), the United Arab Emirates (+361 kb/d), and Kuwait (+367 kb/d). Over half of it was in Saudi Arabia and Russia. All five of these countries are well past their peaks. Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar field has a water-cut of at least 30 percent and perhaps much more. As Matthew Simmons has shown, a few aging giant fields accounted for about 51 percent of Iran’s 2000 output, 95 percent of the U.A.E.’s, and 89 percent of Kuwait’s. In other words, the world is heavily dependent for 6 increases in oil output on a few large, post-peak producers whose ability to sustain production increases is highly questionable. Seen in this light, the 2003 output surge is very fragile. In short, the BP data point strongly to an imminent global peak. Statements in August by OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro and Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez that OPEC had reached the limit of its production capacity support this interpretation. We might even be passing through the peak this year.

Oil peak and subsequent decline necessarily mean economic contraction and exploding energy costs. This will make supporting the aging populations of America and Europe, supplying health care (which is energy-intensive) and shifting to alternative energies increasingly problematic. Beyond even these daunting challenges looms the hideous problem of a growing world population using a dwindling oil supply. The U.S. Census Bureau projects world population of 6.81 billion in 2010, 7.51 billion in 2020, 8.11 billion in 2030, 8.62 billion in 2040, and 9.05 billion in 2050.

The 2004 revision of ASPO’s depletion model projects oil output (all liquids) for these years of 28.74, 23.49, 19.30, 15.36, and 11.54 Gb respectively. This works out to 4.22 barrels per capita in 2010, 3.13 in 2020, 2.38 in 2030, 1.78 in 2040, and just 1.28 in 2050! Small wonder politicians and mainstream opinion are in denial about depletion. But eventually the truth will have to break through.


Speziell zu Saudi-Arabien steht in dem Newsletter, in dem obiger Text erschienen ist, auch noch was:


The Nemesis Report
Our anonymous contributor from the heart of the oil industry returns with devastating insight

ASPO has undoubtedly done great work in showing the way that the so-called quota wars have led to vast exaggeration of Middle East OPEC reserves. I calculate that for Saudi Arabia, we have now reached the point where its production peak can be predicted with some confidence. It is by the end of 2004. Clearly I need to justify such a devastating prediction.

On both the Aramco website and in the August issue of the IEA Monthly Report is the suggestion that Saudi Arabia needs 600-800 kb/d of additional capacity to maintain its production. Note that the word Depletion can never be used. Prior to the start-up of the Qatif and Abu Sa’fah fields in July, Saudi production had been running flat out at 9.2 million b/d. (You can believe in the legendary Saudi 1.0 - 1.5 Mb/d of spare or reserve capacity if you wish. It really doesn’t alter the argument).
Saudi production is already declining by at least 600 kb/d each year, or around 50 kb/d each month. The newly started up Qatif and Abu Sa’fah fields are claimed to be adding 650 kb/d of capacity (800 kb/d in total minus the 150 kb/d that Abu Sa’fah had been producing). ] It is claimed that these two fields will reach full capacity by October.

Let’s be more generous and look at end-December 2004. July’s 9.2 Mb/d capacity will have been eroded by six months of decline, roughly 300 kb/d, but augmented by the new capacity ofr some 650 kb/d. So in the last quarter of 2004 Saudi capacity will peak at 9.5-9.6 Mb/d. A year later with no new capacity added it will be down to 9 Mb/d. The next capacity increment comes in July 2006 but capacity will have already fallen to 8.7 Mb/d. The 300 kb/d of new production from Haradh Increment III will then restore capacity to 9 Mb/d. But even if decline is held at current rates, Saudi capacity will be back to 8.7 Mb/d by the end of 2006 falling to just over 8 Mb/d by the end of 2007. How can I claim that Saudi is about to go into irreversible decline when even on the ASPO reduced recoverable reserves the 50% depletion point will not have been reached? The answer is that Saudi has at various times put nineteen fields into production. Of these eight are “Stars”, being highly productive fields that produce around 90% of the country’s production. All the others are “Dogs” that have never worked well and probably never will. Recovery rates of up to 50% may be appropriate for the Stars. For the Dogs 10%, 15% or 20% would be more appropriate. Make this adjustment and Saudi has depleted more than 50% of its realistically recoverable reserves. So my conclusion remains

-- Saudi’s final production peak will be in the last quarter of 2004.



Der Anfang vom Ende des Ã-lzeitalters scheint also sehr nahe zu sein...


Gruss,
Sorrento

@Elli: einen Fullquote habe ich mir herausgenommen, wegen:

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• Evidence for Peak Oil mounts - Sorrento, 03.10.2004, 03:14