Financialsense:"Oil Performance in a Worldwide Depression"

verfasst von Sorrento, 09.10.2004, 20:51

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Oil Performance in a Worldwide Depression
by Krassimir Petrov, PhD September 28, 2004


In a previous article called “China’s Great Depression”, I postulated that China must necessarily fall into a depression, probably comparable to the American one from the 1930s, which in turn will spread to become a worldwide depression. In response, many readers asked whether in such a depressionary environment the price of oil would go up or down....Therefore, the goal of this article is to explain the importance of the question, to define its scope properly, to answer it with sound economic analysis, and to summarize our results.

Over the next decade, oil fundamentals may be characterized as 10+....

The proper definition of the problem requires investigation of the price of oil (1) relative to the U.S. dollar, (2) relative to strong fiat currencies, (3) relative to gold and silver, and (4) relative to a basket of commodities. Below, we investigate each in turn, although I would like to respectfully acknowledge Marc Faber’s seminal contribution in (1) and (2).

...


To conclude, in a depressionary environment, the price of oil will go up in terms of U.S. dollars, and will fall in terms of strong currencies, gold, silver, and a basket of commodities. It follows that the appropriate investment strategy for investors should involve the accumulation of gold, silver, strong foreign currencies, and government bonds denominated in those currencies.



<ul> ~ http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/petrov/2004/0928.html</ul>

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• Financialsense:"Oil Performance in a Worldwide Depression" - Sorrento, 09.10.2004, 20:51